Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Odds & Picks: Our Best Bets for Top-10 Showdown
Getty Images. Design by Matt Roembke/Action Network. Pictured (left to right): Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., Ryan Day and Kyle McCord. Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman, Marcus Freeman and Audric Estime.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -118 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +136 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -104 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -164 |
By John Feltman
We head out to South Bend, Indiana, for the matchup of the week between the Ohio State Buckeyes, and the Notre Dame Irish on Saturday night. With an extremely loaded slate, it’s a treat to have this cap everything off on Saturday evening.
Both of these teams have cruised thus far this season, and this could very well determine a College Football Playoff spot. Ohio State can probably afford a loss in this spot, but that would require too many variables out of its control to fall into place.
This is a game where Marcus Freeman is usually at his best, as I can imagine the Irish will be ready to roll on Saturday night.
This is also a matchup with a lot of Heisman Trophy implications with Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrsion Jr. and Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman.
Ohio State drilled Western Kentucky last week, whereas Notre Dame also took care of business with a 41-17 win over Central Michigan. This is a really tough matchup to handicap, just because the data collected from this season may be a bit inflated.
Our Action Network team put our collective minds together to determine the correct side, total and other potential bets for this monstrous matchup.
Let’s send it off to Cody Goggin to break down the results of our point spread poll.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Spread
Notre Dame +3
By Cody Goggin
There was no lack of decisiveness on this pick amongst our staff. In what may be a bit of a shock, 85.7% of our staff that had an opinion on this game is backing Notre Dame at +3.
Betting against the Buckeyes is always a risky proposition, but I, like the staff, believe that this is not the Ohio State team that we've become accustomed to.
Despite playing one of the easiest schedules in FBS so far, Ohio State has not been overly impressive. It ranks 32nd in Success Rate this season, but this has come mainly from the passing game, which ranks 21st.
Unfortunately for Ohio State, this plays right into Notre Dame’s strengths defensively.
The Irish rank fourth in Passing Success Rate Allowed and sixth in Passing PPA Allowed. The one area where Ohio State could potentially take advantage is by generating explosive pass plays, as Notre Dame ranks just 107th in passing explosiveness allowed.
Notre Dame has found ways to gash teams through the air this year, which just happens to be exactly where Ohio State has struggled. Despite facing Indiana, Youngstown State and Western Kentucky, the Buckeyes rank just 64th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
The Irish, meanwhile, rank 20th in Passing Success Rate, fourth in Passing PPA and sixth in passing explosiveness.
Sam Hartman has this Notre Dame team playing on a level we haven't seen from the program in years. Meanwhile, Kyle McCord hasn't yet proven that he can elevate the Buckeye offense to the level of success we typically see from them.
We have been here before with Notre Dame in big situations, but its strengths and weaknesses all line up perfectly with Ohio State’s. For that reason, we think Notre Dame can cover this three-point spread in South Bend.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Over/Under
Over 54.5 | 8 Picks |
Pass | 0 FALSE |
Under 54.5 | 7 Picks |
Split Decision
Our staff is split on this total, and with good reason. These teams are extremely similar on paper when comparing their advanced metrics.
Previously in matchups like this, I would say that Ohio State is usually the one carrying the scoring responsibility. But so far, Notre Dame has looked like a far more explosive offense against better levels of competition.
Sam Hartman has been balling with an 85.7 PFF grade so far, and he has a history of playing extremely well in big games. Meanwhile, Kyle McCord has not looked great against subpar competition, rocking a PFF grade of 65.7.
However, he has the benefit of playing with the most talented player in college football in Marvin Harrison Jr. Notre Dame’s defense hasn't been tested against elite wide receivers this season, and it’s a daunting first challenge.
Hartman is a big part of why Notre Dame has been so successful on offense (maybe the rib necklace plays a part, who can say), but this offensive line unit and run game have been equally impressive. The Irish rank in the top 11 in Success Rate, explosiveness, points per opportunity and Havoc. Their passing metrics are even more impressive, ranking in the top six in PPA/Play and explosiveness as well.
I think you could make a convincing argument that Notre Dame has the best offense in football right now. Its opponents have looked helpless when it comes to stopping the ground game or the air attack. Notre Dame is going to move the ball well and put up a lot of points.
Now, let’s look at Ohio State’s offensive metrics. The Buckeyes are much more middle-of-the-road, but they're certainly not slouches. They rank above average in most metrics, really standing out in Points per Opportunity, as they rank sixth in the country. Their Success Rate and explosiveness numbers are much more average, coming in at 32nd and 40th, respectively.
While it's not quite the dominant unit we’ve seen in the past, Ohio State certainly still has an above-average offense, particularly through the air. I would anticipate the Buckeyes airing it out quite a bit to get the ball in the hands of their best players.
The weak link in this offense is McCord, but if he can find a rhythm, there’s no reason the Buckeyes can’t move the ball downfield quickly.
This is going to be an awesome game, and I cannot wait to watch. I’ll take the over and bet it up to 55.5.
More Ways to Bet Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
I think I said everything in the totals section, but I just want to reiterate one thing:
Sam Hartman + A dominant ground game = A lot of points for the Fighting Irish.
If you couldn’t tell from the writeup, I think the Fighting Irish will do the bulk of the scoring in this matchup. I expect them to move the ball with ease and with relative quickness. I expect they will not often settle for field goals, put themselves in bad situations or turn the ball over.
I see more of that coming from Ohio State this year. One touchdown a quarter doesn't seem like a big ask.
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