Oklahoma vs. Texas Odds & Picks for Week 6: How to Bet Saturday’s College Football Rivalry Game

Oklahoma vs. Texas Odds & Picks for Week 6: How to Bet Saturday’s College Football Rivalry Game article feature image
Credit:

Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Rattler.

Oklahoma vs. Texas Odds

Oklahoma Odds -3.5 (-110)
Texas Odds +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline -155 / +135
Over/Under 65 (-110 / -110)
Time 12 p.m. ET
TV ABC
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Oklahoma and Texas programs are changing as fast as the name of this rivalry.

The Red River Showdown, formerly known as the Red River Shootout or Classic or Rivalry, will take place at the State Fair of Texas just outside of the Cotton Bowl.

The designation of home team alternates yearly for the battle of the 10-Gallon Golden Hat. While the Longhorns lead the series, 62-49-5 all-time, the Sooners have taken a victory back to Norman in nine of the past 12 games.

Texas and Oklahoma are two of the three teams still undefeated in the Big 12 standings, with undefeated Oklahoma State set to meet the Longhorns in Week 7.

With Iowa State already falling to Baylor, Red River will go a long way in determining who is in the penthouse for a trip to the College Football Playoff.


Oklahoma vs. Texas Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
12 p.m. ET
ABC

Oklahoma Sooners

We Want Caleb (Williams)

The Sooners’ fanbase has let it be known that the Spencer Rattler era might quickly be coming to an end.

Oklahoma has won by a single possession in three consecutive games, but the home victory over West Virginia in Week 4 had fans in a frenzy asking for backup quarterback Caleb Williams.

The five-star, blue-chip recruit was the No. 2 overall quarterback in his signing class, just behind Quinn Ewers, who skipped his senior year of high school to go to Ohio State.

The lack of explosiveness and downfield passing has Sooner Nation unhappy with on-field results.

“We want Caleb” chants have begun in Norman after a Spencer Rattler INT…..yikes pic.twitter.com/8OCIv4B6BU

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 26, 2021

Issues persisted in a Week 5 victory over Kansas State, as Rattler posted two touchdowns and an interception.

The most unsettling sign from the victory was the lack of downfield passing, as Rattler attempted just two throws of more than 20 yards. Of his 27 pass attempts, there was just one drop on the day, with an average depth of target at 7.6 yards.

There are plenty of questions on the deep ball, ranging from the idea of a potential Rattler injury or if head coach Lincoln Riley leaving a portion of the playbook at home on Saturdays.

Rattler attempted 57 passes beyond 20 yards in a shortened 2020 season, with 26 big-time throws and just four turnover-worthy plays. There have been 12 similar attempts this season, with no big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays.

There’s a distinct possibility a two-possession Longhorn lead in the Cotton Bowl would be enough to put Williams on the field. In a limited sample against Western Carolina and Kansas State, the prodigy produced 6-of-11 passing, with a big-time throw and a drop.

His dual-threat ability creates a large delta over the abilities of Rattler on the ground.

CALEB WILLIAMS ⚡️⚡️⚡️

pic.twitter.com/8ONz52rsf0

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 12, 2021

 


The Nik Bonitto Show

Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has turned a defensive field full of statues into one of the most successful and aggressive groups in a matter of three years.

The Sooners are fifth in the nation in Finishing Drives, a measurement of how many points the opponent puts up on the board when crossing the 40-yard line.

Only 10-of-18 opponent drives into the red zone have resulted in a touchdown. PFF grades Oklahoma as having the best defensive pass rush in the nation, boosted by Nik Bonitto’s 14 quarterback hurries.

Reggie Grimes forces the fumble Nik Bonitto scooped it up. #SpeedD pic.twitter.com/ZlPLhfyHJ6

— Sooner Gridiron (@soonergridiron) October 2, 2021

The biggest change through the Grinch campaign is stopping the chains. Oklahoma ranks 10th in the nation in standard downs Success Rate.

The Sooners will be in the backfield of any offensive line that isn’t prepared, as they own a top-10 rank in tackles for loss.

The past 10 years of Red River have been defined by offense, but it’s the Sooners defense that’s the best unit on the field in the Cotton Bowl.

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Texas Longhorns

Successful & Explosive Casey Thompson

There are a number of factors in why the Arkansas nearly doubled the points put on the board by the Longhorns.

In Hudson Card’s second game as a starter, troubles persisted in explosive plays and passing downs. Through 21 offensive possessions against Louisiana and Arkansas, head coach Steve Sarkisian had produced zero explosive drives, defined as a drive averaging more than 10 yards per play.

Casey Thompson led a late touchdown drive in Fayetteville and became the starter against Rice. Respecting the dual-threat and zone read, the Longhorns have become an explosive offense.

Casey Thompson got WHITT it pic.twitter.com/DMmGfc1xTY

— Longhorn Network (@LonghornNetwork) October 2, 2021

The national average for available yards is 44%, defined by how many possible yards at the start of a drive against how many yards are actually gained.

The 2020 Alabama offense, led by Sarkisian, owned a number of 90%, more than double the national average.

In games against Texas Tech and Rice — games led by Thompson — Texas put up more than 90% of available yards in the box score.

After vanilla numbers from the first two games of the season, the Longhorns now rank top-35 in standard and passing downs splits from Success Rate and explosiveness.


Kwiatkowski Stability Search

Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski was known as one of the best in the nation during his time at Washington and Boise State. The 4-2-5 scheme gave defenses consistent issues, but that has not translated to success in Austin thus far.

The Longhorns are outside the top 100 in defending the explosive pass, Havoc, pass rush and Rushing Success Rate. All areas of the defense have failed to stop the opponent, none more striking than a rank of 123rd in standard downs Success Rate.

Texas has broken up just seven passes the entire season, producing a bottom-five rank with teams like Akron and Kansas.

Kwiatkowski has called blitz on just 16% of defensive snaps, a trend lower than his rate during his time at Washington.

TCU and quarterback Max Duggan found success in every split versus the national average, ending with an average third-down distance of 4.4 yards.

If it fails to put pressure on Rattler or provide resistance against the running game, the Longhorns defense is the biggest liability for any unit.


Oklahoma vs. Texas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Texas match up statistically:

Oklahoma Offense vs. Texas Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
66
109
Line Yards
97
73
Pass Success
34
46
Pass Blocking**
3
103
Big Play
78
101
Havoc
47
113
Finishing Drives
5
93
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
36
33
Line Yards
16
118
Pass Success
49
122
Pass Blocking**
46
1
Big Play
21
17
Havoc
25
50
Finishing Drives
45
5
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
42
77
PFF Coverage
53
27
Middle 8
9
13
SP+ Special Teams
4
23
Plays per Minute
70
79
Rush Rate
48.8% (101)
66.6% (9)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Oklahoma vs. Texas Betting Pick

Rattler is the starter for Oklahoma, but watching Duggan run dual-threat zone reads and convert downfield passing attempts might be the advantage Williams has over Texas.

Head coach Lincoln Riley is sure to give Rattler the lion’s share of snaps if he avoids of turnover-worthy plays.

There are plenty of ways to attack the Texas defense on the ground or through the air.

Eric Gray and Kennedy Brooks have improved each game in yards after contact, now combining for 36 missed tackles on the season. The Longhorns’ issues with tackling might assist Rattler in allowing him to continue the short passing game and letting the skill players make the explosive plays.

Eric Gray a gets a lot no 4th and 4. pic.twitter.com/ryKRdfTKe6

— Sooner Gridiron (@soonergridiron) September 26, 2021

Texas has problems outside of every statistical category on the defensive side of the ball. The Sooners, meanwhile, are top-25 in defending rush explosiveness and rank 25th in standard downs Success Rate.

Oklahoma’s defense has enough personnel to not only cover Bijan Robinson in the run game but keep up on the sneaky wheel routes.

Special teams is a major concern for Texas, as Oklahoma ranks fourth in the nation in SP+. Oklahoma has notable flaws in downfield passing, but that aspect is not a factor that will be tested against this Longhorns defense.

Pick: Oklahoma -3 or better

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