College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Oklahoma State vs. Texas: Will the Cowboys Win in Austin?

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Oklahoma State vs. Texas: Will the Cowboys Win in Austin? article feature image

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  • No. 25 Texas hosts undefeated No. 12 Oklahoma State in a top-25 Big 12 matchup from Austin.
  • The Longhorns are favored by 3.5 points despite blowing a significant lead vs. Oklahoma last week in the Red River Showdown.
  • Brad Cunningham breaks down the game and offers up his best bet.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Odds

Oklahoma State Odds+3.5 (-110)
Texas Odds-3.5 (-110)
Moneyline+155 / -180
Over/Under61 (-110 / -110)
Time12 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Texas looks to rebound from a last-second loss in the Red River Showdown when it hosts 12th-ranked Oklahoma State in Austin.

Oklahoma State has passed every test so far this season, including a 24-14 win over Baylor two weeks ago.

This is a different Oklahoma State team than in year's past, though. Mike Gundy's squad has one of the best defenses in the country, while their offense has been struggling.

The Cowboys already have one big road win this season — going all the way to Idaho to beat Boise State, 21-20 — so they will be ready for the hostile crowd in Austin.

Texas suffered its second loss of the season at the last second against Oklahoma last weekend after leading, 41-23, in the third quarter.

Steve Sarkisian's team is still alive to make a run at the Big 12 Championship game, but this is a must-win game for the Longhorns on Saturday. Otherwise, their season is over.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 16
12 p.m. ET

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oklahoma State Offense

It's been a mixed bag for Spencer Sanders and the Oklahoma State passing attack.

From a Success Rate standpoint, the Cowboys are pretty average, ranking 57th in the country. However, they are explosive, ranking 20th in passing explosiveness, with a lot of that having to do with one of the best receivers in the Big 12, Tay Martin.

In the three games that Martin has played this season, he's gone over 100 yards in every outing and has a 79.5 receiving grade, which the 32nd best mark in college football.

Welcome back, Tay Martin.

— Cody Nagel (@CodyNagel247) September 26, 2021

Sanders has been efficient this season, throwing for 8.1 yards per attempt and a 81.8 passing grade, per PFF. But, he's been throwing the ball into coverage one too many times, as he has six turnover-worthy plays in four starts.

The rushing attack hasn't really gotten going this season, either. The Cowboys are only running the ball for 3.7 yards per carry, rank 91st in Rushing Success Rate and are 113th in Offensive Line Yards.

They will need to find a way to get the rushing attack going because running the ball is exactly how you beat Texas' defense, which Oklahoma and Arkansas have shown this season.

Oklahoma State Defense 

Gundy has an unbelievable defense this season that can slow down Sarkisian's offense.

The Cowboys are allowing only 4.6 yards per play, which is 19th in the country.

The strength of the defense is in their front seven, as the Cowboys are only allowing 2.8 yards per carry and are graded as the No. 5 run defense in college football, per PFF.

However, Bijan Robinson will be by far the best running back they have seen this season and Gundy's squad is struggling with the fundamentals, ranking 105th in tackling.

The secondary has been very solid this season as they are allowing only 7.0 yards per attempt, are graded as the 31st best unit in college football in terms of coverage, per PFF, and are 28th in EPA/Pass allowed.

They will be a tough matchup for Texas quarterback Casey Thompson on Saturday.

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Texas Longhorns

Texas Offense

The switch to Thompson as starting quarterback after the loss to Arkansas has been an unbelievable move by Sarkisian.

Even in the loss to Oklahoma last weekend, Thompson averaged 11.4 yards per attempt and threw for five touchdowns. In, Thompson's four starts this season he's averaging 10.0 yards per pass attempt and the Longhorns' offense is gaining 8.32 yards per play.

However, in his first true road start of the season at TCU two weeks ago, he was really bad with a 33.3 passing grade and four turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. This will be by far the best secondary he's seen all season, so we'll see which Thompson shows up on Saturday.

The good news for Thompson is he has the best running back in college football to hand the ball off to. Robinson is gaining 6.2 yards per carry and already has 20 runs of over 10 yards, which is the fourth-most in college football.

“This kid may be the best player in the sport. This kid is big time.”


— ESPN (@espn) October 9, 2021

It helps when you have a good offensive line in front of you, as Texas is graded as the 25th best run blocking unit in the country.

However, this is the best front seven that Robinson has faced all season and Oklahoma State is 11th in big plays allowed, so I don't think we'll see the same type of rushing success Robinson had against Oklahoma.

Texas Defense

Oklahoma exposed every single problem that has existed with the Texas defense this season.

Through six games, the Longhorns are allowing 6.3 yards per play, which is 104th in the country.

There are plenty of problems in both the secondary and in the front seven for new defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski.

The secondary was torched last weekend by Oklahoma, as Caleb Williams stepped in and threw for 8.5 yards per attempt and two touchdowns. The Longhorns rank 57th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and are letting up 7.8 yards per attempt this season.

Sanders should be able to throw the ball efficiently on Saturday.

The front seven is having all kinds of issues, as Texas is allowing 5.4 yards per carry, ranks 120th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and is 123rd in rushing explosiveness allowed.

What's even worse for Texas is it can't stop anybody once it crosses the 40-yard-lines because it is 119th in Finishing Drives.

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Oklahoma State vs. Texas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma State and Texas match up statistically:

Oklahoma State Offense vs. Texas Defense
Rush Success9193
Line Yards11394
Pass Success57117
Pass Blocking**6093
Big Play3449
Finishing Drives81112
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
Rush Success3433
Line Yards2034
Pass Success2832
Pass Blocking**9168
Big Play3911
Finishing Drives148
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling10574
Middle 85713
SP+ Special Teams9213
Plays per Minute5776
Rush Rate62.8% (23)63.2% (19)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.

With how good Oklahoma State's defense has been this season, I do think they can slow down both Thompson and Robinson on Saturday.

The key will be limiting big plays from the Texas offense and the Cowboys' defense has shown that they are capable of not allowing explosive plays.

On the flip side, even though Oklahoma State's offense hasn't been that efficient this season, facing Texas' front seven and secondary will be like a breath of fresh air for Sanders and the Cowboys' offense.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Betting Pick

Texas opened as a -3.5 favorite and got as high as -6 before being bet down to -5 at a lot of books.

I only have Texas projected as -0.72 favorite at home, so I think there is some value on the Cowboys at +5 at DraftKings. I would play it down to +4.

Pick: Oklahoma State +5

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