Michigan State vs. Maryland Betting Odds & Picks: Can Spartans Keep It Close?

Michigan State vs. Maryland Odds

Saturday, Oct. 1

3:30 p.m. ET

FS1

Michigan State Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+7.5 -110	58.5 -105o / -115u	+230

Maryland Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-7.5 -110	58.5 -105o / -115u	-285

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Michigan State looks to rebound after back-to-back losses when it heads on the road to take on Maryland.

There's absolutely nothing positive we can take away from Michigan State's performance against Minnesota on Saturday. It was thoroughly dominated in every aspect of the game.

That game also showed that the Spartans' preseason ranking of 11th was a tad too high. For Mel Tucker to prevent this season from spiraling out of control, they need to be competitive in this game.

Maryland went on the road to the Big House and was competitive, losing 34-27. However, being over a touchdown favorite at home against the other school in Michigan is another task and story.

Michigan State Spartans

Spartans Offense

Payton Thorne has been pretty bad to begin the season. His PFF passing grade sits at just 65.9 with four Big Time Throws and six Turnover Worthy Plays.

However, Michigan State is still 42nd in Passing Success Rate even with those terrible numbers.

Thorne still has his top target Jayden Reed to throw to — the wide out recorded over 1,000 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns in 2021.

Reed missed the game against Washington. He was questionable and tried to give it a go against the Gophers last Saturday, but only got five targets and ran 24 routes.

He should be a full go against Maryland, though, which will drastically help Thorne.

If there was ever a game for Michigan State to get its rushing attack going, this is the one.

Through a tough schedule, the Spartans have ran the ball for 4.4 yards per carry, own a ranking of 36th in Rushing Success Rate and have the fourth-best run-blocking grade in the country, per PFF, despite only bringing back two starters on the offensive line.

Spartans Defense

Michigan State brought back nine starters on the defensive side of the ball from a pretty average unit a season ago.

This season, the Spartans have struggled to generate a pass rush, ranking 59th in terms of a pass rushing grade and 52nd in Havoc. However, they have done a good job of stopping the run, allowing just 3.4 yards per attempt while ranking 30th in Defensive Line Yards.

However, this game is going to come down to if the secondary can slow down Taulia Tagovailoa. The secondary was the Achilles heel of the Spartans' defense last season, and it struggled against both Washington and Minnesota.

So far on the season, the secondary ranks 91st in terms of a coverage grade and 99th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, but it did bring back three starters from last season.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Maryland Terrapins

Terrapins Offense

Tagovailoa looks like the greatest quarterback on earth when playing inferior opponents, but as soon as he has to face a somewhat decent defense, he turns into a below-average quarterback.

Take a look at his PFF passing grades from all of last year, and then the first four games of this season:

When he faced Michigan State last season, he threw for 350 yards, but that came on 51 attempts and included four Turnover Worthy Plays, which was tied for his season high.

Michigan State returned its entire secondary from that team that wreaked havoc on Tagovailoa.

Also of major importance, Tagovailoa and top wide receiver Rakim Jarrett are both questionable to play on Saturday.

The Maryland rushing attack has been pretty average to begin the season — ranking 64th in Rushing Success Rate — and its offensive line has not been getting a good push up front.

Maryland is 63rd in Offensive Line Yards and 66th in terms of a run blocking grade. That's not good news when you're going up against Michigan State's front seven.

Terrapins Defense

The Maryland defense has been sub-par this season, and its biggest problem has been its inability to generate a pass rush.

Maryland's defensive line is 107th in terms of a pass rushing grade and 95th in Havoc, not to mention the Michigan State offensive line is fourth in terms of a pass blocking grade, per PFF.

That's bad news considering Thorne is averaging 8.0 yards per attempt and has a 76.7% adjusted completion percentage when throwing from a clean pocket.

Maryland is also really struggling to stop the run. The Terrapins rank 101st in Power Success Rate Allowed, 90th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed and 54th in EPA/Rush Allowed.

I have a hard time seeing how they are going to slow Michigan State down, even if the Spartans have been struggling to move the ball.

The ultimate CFB betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Collin Wilson's biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

TRY FOR FREE

Michigan State vs. Maryland Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan State and Maryland match up statistically:

Michigan State Offense vs. Maryland Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	36	65
Line Yards	82	66
Pass Success	47	28
Pass Blocking**	4	107
Havoc	34	95
Finishing Drives	58	16
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Maryland Offense vs. Michigan State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	64	40
Line Yards	63	30
Pass Success	74	99
Pass Blocking**	30	59
Havoc	69	52
Finishing Drives	16	40
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	15	21
PFF Coverage	91	62
SP+ Special Teams	116	2
Seconds per Play	24.2 (26)	26.3 (63)
Rush Rate	48.6% (94)	49.0% (92)

Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Michigan State vs. Maryland Betting Pick

Bettors clearly are reacting to Michigan State's poor performance against Minnesota. Maryland opened as a -3.5 favorite and has already been bet up five points as of Thursday afternoon.

I think that is a massive overreaction, as the Maryland defense has shown no ability to consistently get stops or generate a pass rush.

I only have Maryland projected as a -3 favorite, so I like the value on the Spartans at +8.5, which is currently available at BetMGM.

Pick: Michigan State +8.5