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Oklahoma vs. TCU Odds & Picks: How to Bet Saturday’s Big 12 Battle

Oklahoma vs. TCU Odds & Picks: How to Bet Saturday’s Big 12 Battle article feature image
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Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Emari Demercado (TCU)

  • Dillon Gabriel and the Oklahoma Sooners make the trip to Fort Worth on Saturday to take on Max Duggan the TCU Horned Frogs in a Big 12 college football matchup.
  • The Sooners were nearly a touchdown favorite, but odds have been moving in favor of the Horned Frogs all week.
  • Read on for Collin Wilson's full betting analysis and pick for Oklahoma vs. TCU.

Oklahoma vs. TCU Odds

Saturday, Oct. 1
12 p.m. ET
ABC
Oklahoma Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-5.5
-110
69.5
-108o / -112u
-220
TCU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+5.5
-110
69.5
-108o / -112u
+180
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

As the season approaches the month of October, the Big 12 is completely upside down. Texas Tech, Kansas, Baylor and Kansas State are undefeated in conference play, while Texas and Oklahoma have started off league play 0-1.

This makes the Sooners’ date with TCU nearly a must win if there are desires to make the conference championship game.

Oklahoma had no answers for the Kansas State offense last week. The Wildcats posted touchdowns on their first and last two drives of the game, never allowing the Sooners to lead.

Head coach Brent Venables is known as the best defensive mind in college football, but the Oklahoma defense did not have the personnel to stop a dual-threat quarterback.

Adrian Martinez tallied 148 rushing yards and four touchdowns to go along with 234 yards and a single score from the air.

Meanwhile, Sonny Dykes is flourishing as the new head coach of TCU, beating his former squad SMU, 42-34. Despite playing just three games, the Horned Frogs already rank in the top 10 in long offensive rushing plays.

Gone is the Gary Patterson era of erratic defensive play, as the new defensive staff has improved execution in tackling and defending the pass.

TCU is back on track as a feared squad in the Big 12, but contending for the conference requires a win against Oklahoma.


Oklahoma Sooners

Venables spent the entire summer changing the mindset of the Oklahoma roster. The former Clemson coordinator wanted a blue-collar grittiness associated with the defense, an element that was missing from the Lincoln Riley regime.

The current Oklahoma roster did not have anyone capable of stopping the Kansas State offensive line or skill-position players.

The Sooners continue to struggle against the rush, ranking 110th in Line Yards. The Wildcats implemented a heavy ground rush, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Martinez went for 3.6 yards after contact, while Deuce Vaughn had five carries go over 10 yards. Both players were untouched on a number of attempts.

ADRIAN MARTINEZ, TAKE A BOW pic.twitter.com/oMycDKoRCT

— Sully Engels (@sullyengels) September 25, 2022

As Oklahoma looks for answers on defense, the offense put up 550 yards, with a healthy 7.5 yards per play. The Sooners prefer an up-tempo pace at 21.2 seconds per play, but their struggles on third down — combined with penalties — kept them off the board for three of their first four offensive drives.

Coordinator Jeff Lebby is getting the most out of the offense, ranking top-20 in nearly every analytical category. This is one of the most explosive offenses in Standard Downs, and is led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel.

🚨TOUCHDOWN🚨

Dillon Gabriel finds Theo Wease to put the Sooners on the board.#OUDNA | #BoomerSooner pic.twitter.com/nPVAC3EfJY

— 𝕆𝕂𝕃𝔸ℍ𝕆𝕄𝔸-𝕍𝕊-𝕋ℍ𝔼 𝕎𝕆ℝ𝕃𝔻 (@soonergridiron) September 25, 2022

Gabriel has yet to throw an interception or log a Turnover Worthy Play. Furthermore, the fourth-year quarterback has a minimal drop in adjusted completion percentage with pressure.

The targets for the Sooners have dropped just one pass a game, but there is still meat on the bone when it comes to passing downs. On second- or third-and-long, Oklahoma ranks 41st in Success Rate and 99th in Explosiveness.

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TCU Horned Frogs

Dykes has the offense humming, as quarterback Max Duggan leads the nation in passer efficiency rating.

Oklahoma transfer Chandler Morris started the season as the Horned Frogs’ signal caller, but injury has opened the gateway for Duggan to shred opposing offenses.

Morris is expected to be ready for action against Oklahoma, but the kickstarter for the offense is pair of running backs, Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado.

Emari Demercado seals the TCU win, waves goodbye to SMU fans @TCUFootball | #EarnTheChippic.twitter.com/Jc6i1IhbPh

— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) September 24, 2022

Demercado has posted a ridiculous 5.3 yards after contact, while Miller has produced 11 missed tackles and eight runs of 10 yards or more.

If there is a player that defenders on the Oklahoma side do not want to see, its TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston. The junior posted 185 receiving yards and three touchdowns last season, but has yet to bust out during the 2022 season.

The questions on the Horned Frogs’ roster begin on defense. A rank of 114th in Finishing Drives indicates coordinator Joe Gillespie does not have this unit executing at a high level.

There have been 14 opponent drives to cross the TCU 40-yard line with an average of 4.6 points per scoring attempt. There is also a severe lack of Havoc, as the unit has recorded just five sacks on the season.

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Oklahoma vs. TCU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and TCU match up statistically:

Oklahoma Offense vs. TCU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 15 87
Line Yards 18 74
Pass Success 19 60
Pass Blocking** 29 116
Havoc 13 47
Finishing Drives 24 114
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

TCU Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 30 77
Line Yards 61 110
Pass Success 31 76
Pass Blocking** 20 62
Havoc 23 23
Finishing Drives 29 46
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 58 25
PFF Coverage 56 33
SP+ Special Teams 35 65
Seconds per Play 21.2 (7) 29.4 (118)
Rush Rate 57.4% (40) 54.0% (63)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Oklahoma vs. TCU Betting Pick

Oklahoma allowed a score on seven of 12 Kansas State drives while posting 11 penalties. The Sooners had more total yards on less plays in the loss, but allowing an opponent to convert half of their third- and fourth-down attempts is a recipe for a loss in a shootout.

There are plenty of expectations that TCU and Oklahoma will be a shootout between an up-tempo Sooners offense and an explosive Frogs team.

The Action Network projects a spread of a pick’em with a total of 71. The market has steamed on the over from the opener of 66 to the doorstep of 69 — both numbers are key in this range.

Both teams are top-30 in Offensive Finishing Drives, with lackluster numbers in the same category on defense.

Both offenses have scored 11 touchdowns on 15 red-zone trips, indicating Venables and Dykes are more willing to go for the end zone than settle for a field goal.

The steam on the total is justified, as neither defense is equipped to stop the opposing offense.

Are there expectations that the Sooners will rebound defensively? Venables did not sound confident in his weekly press conference, noting the lack of depth at linebacker — and freshman reserves likely will not see the field.

There have been issues with slow starts not just against Kansas State, but in previous games (vs. Kent State).

With this game scheduled for an 11 a.m. local kick, Venables must conquer a roster that is not tackling, nor controlling the trench against the run.

Look for Duggan and TCU to match Gabriel and the Sooners score-for-score, giving plenty of value to the home Frogs.

Pick: TCU +6.5 or better

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