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Fresno State vs. UConn Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday College Football Betting Preview

Fresno State vs. UConn Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday College Football Betting Preview article feature image

Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Fife (Fresno State)

Fresno State vs. UConn Odds

Saturday, Oct. 1
3:30 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
Fresno State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-115o / -104u
UConn Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-115o / -104u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Fresno State Bulldogs look to rebound off their 45-17 loss to USC as they travel to face the Connecticut Huskies.

The Bulldogs are coming off a bye week with a 1-2 record on the season. Both losses have come to Pac-12 competition (USC and Oregon State). The loss to the Beavers came in dramatic fashion on a walk-off touchdown.

Oregon State wins a thriller against Fresno State on the final play of the game.

The Beavers look like they could be in for a special season

— WestCoastCFB (@WestCoastCFB) September 11, 2022

Fresno State suffered multiple key injuries against USC that will likely loom into this matchup. Most importantly, star quarterback Jake Haener was carted off the field with an ankle injury and will miss this matchup.

UConn has posted a 5-36 record since the 2018 season. There hasn’t been much improvement this year, as the Huskies are 1-4 with their only victory coming against their FCS opponent in Central Connecticut State.

In the four matchups against FBS competition, the Huskies have been outscored by a combined 135 points.

Fresno State will be extremely shorthanded in this matchup, but will that be enough to keep the Huskies competitive?

Fresno State Bulldogs

Backup quarterback Logan Fife played the second half against the Trojans after Haener’s injury and looked solid, completing 11-of-12 passes for 140 yards.

Fife led the Bulldogs into USC territory on all four drives, but those drives stalled with two turnovers on downs and missed a field goal. 

Losing Haener is a massive hit to the Bulldogs’ offense, but they should have no issues moving the ball in this matchup.

The offensive line ranks 21st in Line Yards and will be getting back offensive lineman Braylen Nelson, who missed the USC game. The Huskies’ defense ranks outside the top 110 in all advanced defensive metrics.

The injuries from the USC game hit the defensive side of the ball just as hard. Safety Evan Williams is the captain on defense and will be out for this matchup. Head coach Jeff Tedford also ruled out linebacker Raymond Scott for this week.

The Bulldogs’ defense has taken a step backward by allowing 29 points per game through the first month of the season. The unit has struggled to stop the run, as it ranks outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate and Defensive Line Yards.

The defense is allowing 4.9 yards per rush and seven yards per pass attempt this season.

Connecticut Huskies

It’s going to be another long 60 minutes for the Huskies on both sides of the ball on Saturday.

They will be tasked with slowing down the explosive Bulldogs offense. That seems unlikely, as the Huskies rank 126th in the nation, allowing 45 points per game against FBS opponents.

Opposing FBS quarterbacks are completing 74% of their passes for 9.2 yards per play.

The group has been equally poor at stopping the run, allowing 4.3 yards per play. Opponents are rushing for just shy of 200 yards per game, which ranks outside the top 100 in the nation.

The defense will have little chance of keeping the Bulldogs out of the end zone.

UConn will need to put up points to stay competitive in this matchup. That’s a concern, as the offense is averaging 11 points and 209 yards per game against FBS opponents — both ranking outside the top 125 in the country.

The Huskies are starting freshman quarterback Zion Turner, who is averaging 85 passing yards per game. Turner was overwhelmed during the first month of the season, completing just 55% of his passes and averaging 4.4 yards per pass attempt.

He’s tossed four touchdowns to go along with three interceptions.

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Fresno State vs. UConn Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and UConn match up statistically:

Fresno State Offense vs. UConn Defense
Rush Success 71 114
Line Yards 21 117
Pass Success 53 128
Pass Blocking** 97 119
Havoc 38
Finishing Drives 97 99
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

UConn Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
Rush Success 43 112
Line Yards 106 104
Pass Success 122 83
Pass Blocking** 9 95
Havoc 123 60
Finishing Drives 92 119
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 102 73
PFF Coverage 93 97
SP+ Special Teams 100 66
Seconds per Play 26.1 (56) 28.2 (104)
Rush Rate 44.1% (114) 62.7% (15)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Fresno State vs. UConn Betting Pick

Before the season, Fresno State was likely looking at this matchup as an extension of its bye week. But after getting its roster decimated by injuries against USC, there’s a slight cause for concern.

The offense should still roll behind Fife at quarterback, especially after he got his feet wet against USC. Fife looked sharp in that matchup and will pick apart the Huskies’ defense.

But the main concern comes on the defensive side of the ball for Fresno State.

Williams will be out at safety and leads the teams in tackles, tackles for loss and passes broken up. Scott at linebacker is a run-stopper who will also be missed.

The Fresno State defense hasn’t looked great at full strength this season. The unit allowed a combined 80 points to Oregon State and USC.

In Week 1, it allowed Cal Poly to move the ball up-and-down the field despite only scoring seven points.

Now with all the injuries, I can see Connecticut finding pay dirt in this matchup.

That has me eyeing the total in this matchup, as both offenses will find success against mediocre defenses.

Pick: Over 52.5 (Play to 54)

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