Georgia vs. Missouri Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday: How to Bet This SEC Tilt
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett.
- No. 1 Georgia takes on Missouri in an SEC college football battle.
- The Bulldogs are favored by nearly 30 points despite being on the road.
- Cooper Van Tatenhove breaks down the matchup and offers up a best bet.
Georgia vs. Missouri Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-29.5 -110 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | -8000 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+29.5 -110 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | +2200 |
Columbia, Missouri, will be the site of an SEC East showdown between the red-hot undefeated Georgia Bulldogs and 2-2 Missouri Tigers.
The Bulldogs are 5-0 when traveling to Columbia, winning by an average of 21 points per game.
Missouri finds itself on an eight-game losing streak in this series. However, under head coach Eli Drinkwitz, the Tigers are 4-2 against the spread against SEC East foes in home games at night.
Georgia Bulldogs
After defeating Alabama to win the national title last season, Georgia almost immediately aimed its sights at a repeat in 2022.
To achieve this, the Bulldogs would have to overcome massive turnover on both sides of the ball after losing a record 15 players to the NFL Draft.
Through the first four weeks, this repeat seems more and more realistic.
The Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0, including three blowout wins over Oregon, Samford and South Carolina. UGA proved it boasts the same defensive prowess as a year ago, allowing no more than seven points in any of the three contests.
These defensive performances have resulted in a Defensive Success Rate of 35%, which climbs to 41% on standard downs.
Georgia has been particularly successful against the run, ranking seventh nationally in EPA per Rush at .318. This, along with a Stuff Rate of 23% has given offenses plenty of problems so far this year.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia and senior quarterback Stetson Bennett have been great but not perfect. Overall, the Bulldogs offense has lacked explosiveness with just a 1.05 rating that decreases to .89 on rushing attempts.
Georgia’s offense has been characterized by slow and methodical drives that eat up the clock. UGA ranks 120th nationally in plays per minute, running just 2.01 plays per minute.
Because of this, Georgia has an average time of possession above 34 minutes a game.
Despite a strong start to the season, the whispers of Bennett being a Heisman contender were likely dashed last week, as the Bulldogs struggled to put away Kent State in an eventual 39-22 victory.
Much of their struggles had to do with Bennett, who threw a costly interception without recording a touchdown pass.
Here's a look at @newera_vi 's interception in the redzone#TheHUNT🐺 | #BeTheA1pha🦅 https://t.co/eUXcvwk8LMpic.twitter.com/LKQiURqGxb
— Kent State Football (@KentStFootball) September 24, 2022
It's also important to note that his lack of explosiveness and sporadic quarterback play on offense, coupled with a dominant defense, has resulted in all four of the Bulldogs' games this year going under the total.
Additionally, UGA is just 2-2 in covering the large spreads bookmakers have given them week in and week out due to its play style on both sides of the ball.
Missouri Tigers
Missouri is coming off of a heartbreaking overtime road loss to Auburn last week. Mizzou missed a field goal the length of an extra point to win the game at the end of regulation, then fumbled the ball at the goal line when attempting to score the winning touchdown in OT.
However heartbreaking that loss was for Drinkwitz and his staff, they have a lot to like from their teams' performance — particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
Missouri ranks fourth nationally in Defensive Success Rate at 28.1% so far this season. A lot of this defensive success is a result of the Havoc the Tigers create against opposing offenses, posting a 23% Havoc ranking defensively.
That performance on defense can be attributed to the experience this group has. The Tigers returned seven of their top eight tacklers from a season ago.
Like Georgia, this defensive success has resulted in three of Missouri’s four games going under the total.
A lot of that has to do with the Tigers' overall Success Rate on defense but also their ability to limit points when opponents do have scoring chances. Missouri ranks top 40 nationally in Net Points per Drive, allowing just 1.85.
On the offensive side of the ball, Missouri has less to be proud of. It ranks 104th nationally in Success Rate at just 36%. This lack of offensive success is a result of its ineffective passing offense, as the Tigers boast a Success Rate of just 27% on passing downs.
That has made Missouri depend on the running game, as it has attempted a total of 165 rushes to just 116 passing attempts. This offensive play style plays directly into the hands of a UGA defense that ranks 20th nationally in EPA per Rush.
Georgia vs. Missouri Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia and Missouri match up statistically:
Georgia Offense vs. Missouri Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 19 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 7 |  |
| Pass Success | 12 | 18 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 7 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 48 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 73 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Missouri Offense vs. Georgia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 111 | 27 | |
| Pass Success | 117 | 26 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 60 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 117 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 81 | 6 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 4 | 92 |
| PFF Coverage | 7 | 60 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 8 | 96 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.0 (120) | 25.8 (47) |
| Rush Rate | 47.7% (100) | 58.7% (34) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Georgia vs. Missouri Betting Pick
Overall, this is a matchup of two teams whose strength comes on the defensive side of the ball.
Although Georgia is averaging 42.3 points per game, it showed last week against Kent State that a competent defensive philosophy can result in mistakes. That type of philosophy is exactly what Missouri brings to the table on the defensive side of the ball.
Mizzou can play some stellar ball on defense, while Georgia wants to eat the clock up on offense. Look for two teams who are a combined 1-7 to the under to continue this trend in Columbia on Saturday night.
Pick: Under 54.5 (Play to 52)
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