Georgia State vs. Army Odds, Picks: Target Total as Panthers Search for First Win

Georgia State vs. Army Odds, Picks: Target Total as Panthers Search for First Win article feature image

Photo by Edward Diller/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyhier Tyler (Army)

  • Georgia State is surprisingly 0-4, while Army's lone win came against FCS school Villanova.
  • Can the Panthers finally earn that coveted victory in college football's Week 5?
  • Dan Keegan previews the duel, but explains why he's targeting the total rather than the spread or moneyline.

Georgia State vs. Army Odds

Saturday, Oct. 1
12 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
Georgia State Odds
-110o / -110u
Army Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Georgia State and Army meet in a game between two teams with zero combined FBS wins. However, this should be a fun small-screen watch for college football nerds. 

Georgia State’s veteran squad might be the best 0-4 team in the country, and dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger is a dynamic talent. 

Army’s service academy flexbone offense is a well-run machine under the watchful eye of quarterbacks Tyhier Tyler and Cade Ballard.

Georgia State Panthers

Georgia State is a team whose winless record belies a halfway decent ball club.

The Panthers hung tough with South Carolina in the opener, before special teams disasters put that one out of reach.

The Panthers held a second-half lead against North Carolina, before letting that one slip away.

They let Charlotte score a last-second touchdown in an upset, and then it all fell apart when they got handled by Coastal Carolina in a Thursday night game.

With Grainger at QB, the Panthers are capable of scoring points. Grainger has rushed for 217 yards on the season (excluding sacks), and has thrown for 217 yards per game.

Unfortunately, his completion percentage is way down this year to 52.7%, and he’s already matched last season’s interception total (4). 

Jamari Thrash (out wide) and Robert Lewis (recently moved into the slot) are the two main threats, leading the team in targets and averaging 14.0 and 16.3 ADOT, respectively.

These two should find some success against an Army defense that ranks 100th in PFF coverage grading. 

Georgia State’s defense has been a resounding disappointment in 2022. This unit finished 65th in SP+ in 2021 and brought back eight starters — many of them fourth- or fifth-year seniors. They were expected to be salty and mean, and one of the better defenses in the Sun Belt. 

Instead, the Panthers' defense has regressed horribly in the season’s opening month. Yes, the unit had to face a tough schedule of offenses — better than some Power Five teams might face in a month — but hopefully the Panthers can restore that side of the ball. 

While the opposing point totals have been gaudy, some of the underlying metrics hint at improvement.

Beta_Rank, which focuses on drive-level performance, has the Panthers' defense at 73rd overall. EPA and other play-related metrics hint that this might be a top-40-ish defense against the run.

There will be no stiffer test to that idea than a visit to West Point to face Jeff Monken’s flexbone. 

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Army Black Knights

The Black Knights are 1-2, with their two losses coming in close games against some of the very best Group of Five quarterbacks on the season — Grayson McCall (Coastal) and Frank Harris (UTSA).

Their lone win was over FCS Villanova in very Army fashion; they did not complete their only pass attempt of the day, but 15 different players logged a carry. 

You know the drill on the Army offense by now, but you might not know the players.

This rushing attack is a nightmare for announcers: Tyrell, Tyson, and Tyler. That’s slotback Tyrell Robinson, fullback Tyson Riley and quarterback Tyler. These are the three leading rushers for the triple-option attack. 

Ballard will also take snaps at quarterback, and he is a threat to pass. He has completed 14-of-21 passes for 309 yards, two scores and no interceptions. 

Army’s offense might be a shade behind what Air Force is currently doing with the scheme, but this is a good version of the service academy flexbone.

Despite their slow place, the Black Knights can put up points.

If a defense is having trouble stopping the attack, the big plays will roll in and the numbers can get gaudy, regardless of the number of seconds between snaps.

Army’s offense is No. 1 in the country in explosive play rate.

Army’s defense has had trouble generating Havoc, ranking 130th in that metric. It also has not been particularly sharp in EPA or Defensive Success Rate metrics, ranking outside of the top 100 in those areas, as well.  

The Black Knights do prevent explosive plays in general — ranking 11th — but that impact is lessened if Georgia State is stringing together drives with its fast pace and Grainger’s mobility.

The ultimate CFB betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Collin Wilson's biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

Georgia State vs. Army Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia State and Army match up statistically:

Georgia State Offense vs. Army Defense
Rush Success103129
Line Yards72126
Pass Success67113
Pass Blocking**9290
Finishing Drives11198
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Army Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
Rush Success2194
Line Yards10052
Pass Success76118
Pass Blocking**12865
Finishing Drives579
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling116105
PFF Coverage98100
SP+ Special Teams2227
Seconds per Play21.8 (10)29.3 (117)
Rush Rate61.9% (18)84.7% (2)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Georgia State vs. Army Betting Pick

Overall, I think this will be close and high-scoring — even for a service academy — game. The offenses are the better units here, and both teams could find points quickly. 

Army will play slowly, but find the end zone with ease. Georgia State will play at a high pace and either score or set Army up with good field position. 

I predict a good day for Georgia State’s two receivers and at least two long Army rushing touchdowns.

I’ll take the over.

Pick: Over 54 (Play to 55)

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.