Georgia State vs. Army Odds, Picks: Target Total as Panthers Search for First Win
Photo by Edward Diller/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyhier Tyler (Army)
- Georgia State is surprisingly 0-4, while Army's lone win came against FCS school Villanova.
- Can the Panthers finally earn that coveted victory in college football's Week 5?
- Dan Keegan previews the duel, but explains why he's targeting the total rather than the spread or moneyline.
Georgia State vs. Army Odds
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -335 |
Georgia State and Army meet in a game between two teams with zero combined FBS wins. However, this should be a fun small-screen watch for college football nerds.
Georgia State’s veteran squad might be the best 0-4 team in the country, and dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger is a dynamic talent.
Army’s service academy flexbone offense is a well-run machine under the watchful eye of quarterbacks Tyhier Tyler and Cade Ballard.
Georgia State Panthers
Georgia State is a team whose winless record belies a halfway decent ball club.
The Panthers hung tough with South Carolina in the opener, before special teams disasters put that one out of reach.
The Panthers held a second-half lead against North Carolina, before letting that one slip away.
They let Charlotte score a last-second touchdown in an upset, and then it all fell apart when they got handled by Coastal Carolina in a Thursday night game.
With Grainger at QB, the Panthers are capable of scoring points. Grainger has rushed for 217 yards on the season (excluding sacks), and has thrown for 217 yards per game.
Unfortunately, his completion percentage is way down this year to 52.7%, and he’s already matched last season’s interception total (4).
Jamari Thrash (out wide) and Robert Lewis (recently moved into the slot) are the two main threats, leading the team in targets and averaging 14.0 and 16.3 ADOT, respectively.
These two should find some success against an Army defense that ranks 100th in PFF coverage grading.
Georgia State’s defense has been a resounding disappointment in 2022. This unit finished 65th in SP+ in 2021 and brought back eight starters — many of them fourth- or fifth-year seniors. They were expected to be salty and mean, and one of the better defenses in the Sun Belt.
Instead, the Panthers' defense has regressed horribly in the season’s opening month. Yes, the unit had to face a tough schedule of offenses — better than some Power Five teams might face in a month — but hopefully the Panthers can restore that side of the ball.
While the opposing point totals have been gaudy, some of the underlying metrics hint at improvement.
Beta_Rank, which focuses on drive-level performance, has the Panthers' defense at 73rd overall. EPA and other play-related metrics hint that this might be a top-40-ish defense against the run.
There will be no stiffer test to that idea than a visit to West Point to face Jeff Monken’s flexbone.
Army Black Knights
The Black Knights are 1-2, with their two losses coming in close games against some of the very best Group of Five quarterbacks on the season — Grayson McCall (Coastal) and Frank Harris (UTSA).
Their lone win was over FCS Villanova in very Army fashion; they did not complete their only pass attempt of the day, but 15 different players logged a carry.
You know the drill on the Army offense by now, but you might not know the players.
This rushing attack is a nightmare for announcers: Tyrell, Tyson, and Tyler. That’s slotback Tyrell Robinson, fullback Tyson Riley and quarterback Tyler. These are the three leading rushers for the triple-option attack.
Ballard will also take snaps at quarterback, and he is a threat to pass. He has completed 14-of-21 passes for 309 yards, two scores and no interceptions.
Army’s offense might be a shade behind what Air Force is currently doing with the scheme, but this is a good version of the service academy flexbone.
Despite their slow place, the Black Knights can put up points.
If a defense is having trouble stopping the attack, the big plays will roll in and the numbers can get gaudy, regardless of the number of seconds between snaps.
Army’s offense is No. 1 in the country in explosive play rate.
Army’s defense has had trouble generating Havoc, ranking 130th in that metric. It also has not been particularly sharp in EPA or Defensive Success Rate metrics, ranking outside of the top 100 in those areas, as well.
The Black Knights do prevent explosive plays in general — ranking 11th — but that impact is lessened if Georgia State is stringing together drives with its fast pace and Grainger’s mobility.
Georgia State vs. Army Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia State and Army match up statistically:
Georgia State Offense vs. Army Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 129 | |
| Line Yards | 72 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 113 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 92 | 90 |  |
| Havoc | 85 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 111 | 98 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Army Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 21 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 52 | |
| Pass Success | 76 | 118 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 128 | 65 | |
| Havoc | 40 | 93 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 79 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 116 | 105 |
| PFF Coverage | 98 | 100 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 22 | 27 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.8 (10) | 29.3 (117) |
| Rush Rate | 61.9% (18) | 84.7% (2) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Georgia State vs. Army Betting Pick
Overall, I think this will be close and high-scoring — even for a service academy — game. The offenses are the better units here, and both teams could find points quickly.
Army will play slowly, but find the end zone with ease. Georgia State will play at a high pace and either score or set Army up with good field position.
I predict a good day for Georgia State’s two receivers and at least two long Army rushing touchdowns.
I’ll take the over.
Pick: Over 54 (Play to 55)
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