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James Madison vs. Appalachian State Odds & Picks | College Football Week 4 Betting Guide

James Madison vs. Appalachian State Odds & Picks | College Football Week 4 Betting Guide article feature image
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Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Kaedin Robinson & Ahmani Marshall (App State)

James Madison vs. Appalachian State Odds

Saturday, Sept 24
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN+
James Madison Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+6.5
-105
56.5
-114o / -106u
+210
Appalachian State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-6.5
-115
56.5
-114o / -106u
-260
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Appalachian State welcomes newly-FBS James Madison for a conference matchup that will likely play a big role in the outcome of the East division of the Sun Belt Conference.

James Madison sits at 2-0 with dominant wins over Middle Tennessee State and Norfolk State. The Dukes are 2-0 against the spread and have a 1-1 record against the total.

Appalachian State holds a 2-1 record with wins over Texas A&M and Troy. The Mountaineers are 1-2 against the spread and have gone over in two games this season.

At the time of the kickoff, there will be winds ranging from 5.0 to 6.3 miles per hour. There’s a very small chance of rain — which would make an impact on the game — but the expectation should be that weather won’t play a role in this one.


James Madison Dukes

It’s safe to say that James Madison’s first two games at the FBS level have gone well. The Dukes are averaging 53.5 points per game and 6.6 yards per play. They’ve played at the methodical pace of 28.3 seconds per play, but have been incredibly efficient, with a 53% Success Rate.

Todd Centeio has completed 66% of his passes for an average of 9.0 yards per attempt. He’s thrown nine touchdowns and has yet to toss an interception.

As a team, James Madison has a 52% Passing Success Rate and has completed an average of five passes over 20 yards per game.

James Madison runs the ball 48 times per game for an average of 5.2 yards per attempt. The Dukes have averaged 248 rushing yards per game.

Leading the charge has been Percy Agyei-Obese, who has 170 rushing yards and two scores.

As a team, the Dukes have a 54% Rushing Success Rate. Their offensive line has generated 3.37 Line Yards per attempt and have allowed a 15.5% Stuff Rate.

The defense has been dominant through two games and the Dukes’ special teams have helped them by forcing an average starting field position of the 20.9-yard line.

They lead the nation with a 20% Success Rate Allowed defensively and have held opponents to 1.75 points per opportunity. They’ve generated Havoc on 26% of plays.

What’s particularly relevant in this matchup is the fact that they’ve allowed a total of 16 rushing yards and an 11% Rushing Success Rate through two games.


App State Mountaineers

There’s probably no more talked about team through three games than Appalachian State. The Mountaineers lost a game despite scoring 40 points in a quarter, pulled a top-10 upset and won a matchup on a Hail Mary.

Through three outings, the Mountaineers are averaging 36.7 points per game and 6.2 yards per play.

Passing isn’t the priority for a Mountaineers offense that throws on just 44% of its offensive plays. Former Clemson and Duke QB Chase Brice has only attempted 100 passes and has completed 62% of those passes for 7.7 yards per attempt.

As a team, Appalachian State has a Passing Success Rate of 44%.

The Mountaineers’ offense splits the ball among several running backs, but through three games, Camerun Peoples has been the featured option. He’s rushed the ball 49 times for 261 yards and one touchdown.

As a team, the Mountaineers have averaged 4.9 yards per rush and have a 48% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line has generated 3.2 Line Yards per attempt while allowing just a 11.3% Stuff Rate.

If the only game you saw this season was its matchup with Texas A&M, you’d probably assume that Appalachian State’s defense was playing at a high level.

However, the ‘Neers have allowed 35 points per game and 6.4 yards per play. They’ve allowed a 46% Success Rate (101st) and 5.07 points per opportunity (125th).

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James Madison vs. Appalachian State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how James Madison and Appalachian State match up statistically:

James Madison Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 59 73
Line Yards 39 58
Pass Success 46 115
Pass Blocking** 109 8
Havoc 53 90
Finishing Drives 32 125
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Appalachian State Offense vs. James Madison Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 26 1
Line Yards 54 1
Pass Success 45 5
Pass Blocking** 54 60
Havoc 6 1
Finishing Drives 44 8
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 18 69
PFF Coverage 76 122
SP+ Special Teams 78 105
Seconds per Play 28.3 (101) 27.6 (89)
Rush Rate .0% () 56.1% (54)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

James Madison vs. Appalachian State Betting Pick

The spread for this game opened at 7.5 and has moved half a point down to 7. The Dukes lead in both tickets and money taken with 59% of bets and 63% of money.

Appalachian State represents a steep increase in caliber of opponent for James Madison. The Mountaineers will be the Dukes’ second FBS opponent of the season. But the Dukes have done what good teams should do against over-matched opponents based on their margins of victory.

Based on historical evidence, Appalachian State deserves to be favored in this game, but James Madison has proven to be a high enough caliber team to continue the Mountaineers’ struggles.

My preferred play is on James Madison catching points.

Pick: James Madison +7 (Play down to 4.5)

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