Marshall vs NC State Odds & Prediction: Low-Scoring Showdown on Deck

Marshall (4-0) travels to Raleigh for a matchup with NC State (3-2). Both teams will look to close out their nonconference schedule with a win before they dive deep into conference play.

Marshall is 2-2 against the spread and has gone over in two games. The Thundering Herd have been favored in every game.

Coming off of a loss to Louisville at home, NC State is 0-5 against the spread this season, including three losses as a favorite. The Wolfpack has gone under in four games.

It will be a windy day in Raleigh. Winds are expected to range from 9-10 mph, and temperatures will be a comfortable 72 degrees throughout the game.

With consistent winds, special teams play will be impacted and the passing game could be slightly affected.

Charles Huff has the Herd off to a perfect start in his third season as the head coach. Marshall is averaging 29.2 points per game and 5.8 yards per play. The Herd offense has a 42% Success Rate, scores an average of 3.18 Points per Opportunity and averages 27.3 seconds per play.

Marshall averages 31.8 pass attempts and 243.3 passing yards per game. Quarterback Cam Fancher leads the offense with 890 passing yards and four touchdowns and has completed 70.4% of his passes for an average of 7.1 yards per attempt.

As a team, Marshall has a 51% Passing Success Rate and averages 2.75 passes over 20 yards per game.

Marshall ranks 40th nationally with a 54% rush rate. The Herd average 39.3 rushes and 169 yards per game on the ground, as running back Rasheen Ali leads the team with 91 attempts for 475 yards and nine touchdowns.

As a team, the Herd own a 34% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line generates 2.16 Line Yards per attempt and allows a 24% Stuff Rate.

The Herd defense gives up 20.5 points per game and 5.2 yards per play while allowing a 32% Success Rate and an average of 3.25 explosive plays per game. The defense ranks fifth nationally in Points per Opportunity Allowed at just 1.9 and generates Havoc on 20% of plays.

Dave Doeren's 11th season as the Wolfpack head coach isn't going quite as anticipated. NC State sits at 3-2 and already has one conference loss.

The offense averages 25.4 points per game and 4.9 yards per play to go along with a 45% Success Rate and an average of 4.12 Points per Opportunity. The Pack allow Havoc on 17% of plays and average 26.8 seconds per play.

Earlier in the week, Doeren announced he was moving on from transfer quarterback Brennan Armstrong and will start MJ Morris in this game. Morris will take over one of the nation's poorest offenses that has passed the ball 32.4 times per game for an average of 194.2 yards.

Morris has yet to throw a pass in 2023 and saw limited action in a 2022 season that included six touchdowns and no interceptions in two wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. For his career, he's completed 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.5 yards per attempt.

As a team, NC State owns a 40% Passing Success Rate.

To date, Armstrong has been at the center of the Pack's run game, while the running backs have distributed carries among four players. Delbert Mimms ranks second on the team with 31 carries and 92 yards, but he's scored five touchdowns.

The offense boasts a 49% Rushing Success Rate behind an offensive line that generates 3.25 Line Yards per attempt and allows a 14.6% Stuff Rate.

The defense has allowed 20.0 points per game and 5.5 yards per play. It allows a 39% Success Rate and 3.54 Points per Opportunity.

One particular area of concern for the defense is its 42% Passing Success Rate Allowed (80th), along with its 3.6 20-plus-yard passes allowed per game. NC State also generates Havoc on 19% of plays.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Marshall and NC State match up statistically:

Marshall Offense vs. NC State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	127	37
Line Yards	133	24
Pass Success	16	54
Havoc	75	33
Finishing Drives	103	73
Quality Drives	106	41

NC State Offense vs. Marshall Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	27	19
Line Yards	31	33
Pass Success	93	4
Havoc	77	30
Finishing Drives	54	5
Quality Drives	74	33

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	95	60
PFF Coverage	36	85
Special Teams SP+	110	21
Middle 8	85	27
Seconds per Play	27.3 (74)	26.8 (66)
Rush Rate	55.3% (40)	53.7% (59)

As of writing, big-money bets appear to be backing Marshall. Approximately 71% of bets favor the Wolfpack, but only 58% of the money has landed NC State.

However, according to Action Network's PRO Report, sharp money has been tracked in favor of the Pack.

I lean toward Marshall because of the potential changes to NC State's offense with the recent quarterback change from Armstrong to Morris.

According to our public betting report, bets have heavily favored the under in this matchup, and that's what my top play is.

Both teams run the ball more than 50% of the time, and the changes to NC State's offense will likely cause some early hiccups.

And even without the changes, both defenses appear to have advantages in a number of key statistics. Add in the windy conditions, and scoring could be a challenge for both teams.