Miami vs Texas A&M Odds, Picks & Preview: The 1H Bet to Make
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Texas A&M’s Ainias Smith.
Miami vs Texas A&M Odds
-105o / -115u
|Texas A&M Odds|
-105o / -115u
College football chaos was rampant in Week 2, and both Texas A&M and Miami were apart of the mania.
For the Hurricanes, a game against Southern Miss with a backup quarterback was projected to be scrimmage with a four-score point spread. The Golden Eagles led Miami with 30 seconds left in the first half, but the score that would not last through the second half. The adjustments by head coach Mario Cristobal were enough to dominate the final two quarters, avoiding an upset to a Sun Belt team.
Texas A&M wasn't so lucky.
Appalachian State traveled to College Station and beat the Aggies on their home field. The numbers from the game are baffling, as Texas A&M racked up only 180 total yards.
The Aggies posted just two drives that crossed the Mountaineers' 40-yard line despite having an average staring field position at their own 35. Jimbo Fisher's pro-style offense was limited to just a 14% Success Rate in passing downs.
With a complete offensive reset needed, Texas A&M is a true wild card heading into the showdown with the Hurricanes.
The Cristobal era has started with two questionable starts against Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss.
Although the final score indicates otherwise, the Wildcats started the season with a 10-play drive ending in a field goal. A couple of interceptions — including a pick-six — later, no one would remember that Bethune-Cookman held a lead against Miami.
That same scenario played out again in Week 2, as the Golden Eagles led with under a minute left in the first half.
After being mentioned in Heisman circles over the summer, quarterback Tyler Van Dyke recorded three turnover-worthy plays against Southern Miss. The third-year quarterback was sacked four times in 11 pressures.
Van Dyke has been pressured 15 times on the season, but more shocking is the fact that his turnover-worthy plays came from a clean pocket.
The best plays under offensive coordinator Josh Gattis have come in the second half.
Tyler Van Dyke with the flea flicker TD 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XgAeOvV2M0
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) September 10, 2022
The Miami defense has also been slow to start in two consecutive games.
Just as the Wildcats took the initial drive down for points, Southern Miss also had a 12-play drive to start the game. The Golden Eagles would score on the next possession.
The primary concern for defensive coordinator Kevin Steele is the lack of tackling. Through two weeks of play, the Miami defense ranks 73rd in tackle grading.
The great news for the Hurricanes is the return of Havoc. Seven players have already recorded a sack, as 48 pressures have been created on just 112 defensive snaps.
Fisher's recent press conference was filled with plenty of content deliverables.
When asked if the offense is too complex for the quarterbacks, the answer was a resounding "no." The pro-style works in the NFL, where a quarterback who can read coverages is needed.
A college quarterback is responsible for reading whether the defense presents man or zone coverage, with that decision leading to checkdowns to other targets. If the Hi-Lo option for a seam route is not available or if the tight end is covered by a safety that didn't bite, the quarterback has the ability to target a running back in the flat.
Whether it's a 2-by-2 or 3-by-1 set, Fisher has been running the same offense for a decade without a successful quarterback in his time at Texas A&M.
Former Texas DB BJ Foster picks off Haynes King. Making his presence known early for SHSU. pic.twitter.com/52mH1QG98b
— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_TFB) September 3, 2022
Fisher didn't turn down the idea of giving up play-calling but indicated the crinkled homework sheets shuffled during the game were a collective effort.
This game against Miami could see LSU transfer Max Johnson at quarterback with potential wrinkles to the offensive play-calling. Those questions will not be answered until the Aggies take the field.
The defense did its part against one of the more electric offenses in the Sun Belt, limiting Appalachian State to just 17 points in six trips past the 40-yard line. The Mountaineers also struggled in passing downs, posting a Success Rate that was 20% lower than the national average.
Although the Aggies sit near dead last in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, a top-20 rank against the pass and in Finishing Drives has been the accountable factor on the team.
Miami vs Texas A&M Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Texas A&M match up statistically:
Miami Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Texas A&M Offense vs. Miami Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||4||63|
|Seconds per Play||27.7 (95)||29.1 (112)|
|Rush Rate||—||47.6% (89)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Miami vs Texas A&M Betting Pick
There's enough sample to believe the Miami offense will struggle out of the gate. Both the offense and defense have allowed an FCS and Sun Belt team to dictate the first quarter over the previous two weeks.
Van Dyke has been inaccurate passing, and the defense lacks fundamentals in tackling. The Hurricanes have already allowed 10 plays to exceed 20 yards.
Texas A&M will be the great unknown on offense, as both Johnson and Haynes King possess mobility.
Adding extra players outside of the pocket with Devon Achane and Ainias Smith could be deadly against a team that has issues tackling. If Fisher is open to changing the offense, allowing his quarterbacks outside the pocket could be the difference.
Haynes King days away from Aggie football pic.twitter.com/YPI8VP6KLI
— Sidelines – Texas A&M 💎 1-1 (@SSN_TAMU) August 21, 2022
The big factor in favor of the Aggies is the 4-2-5 defense. Even in a loss to a Sun Belt team last week, Texas A&M allowed just 134 passing yards at 4.5 yards per attempt.
Van Dyke's struggles should continue with or without pressure applied from the Aggies defense. Texas A&M has allowed an average of just 1.9 points in nine opponent trips past the 40-yard line.
Action Network projects Texas A&M -1, well short of the Game of the Year number that resided over a touchdown in favor of the Aggies. The loss to Appalachian State gave potential Texas A&M investors an opportunity to get a cheap price.
Considering Miami's struggles early in games, betting on the Aggies with an element of surprise on offense is the correct side.