Oregon State vs Cal Odds, Picks: Don’t Expect Much Offense

Something just feels right about 50% of this week's Pac-12 games kicking off no earlier than 10 p.m. ET.

Oregon State (4-1) and Cal (3-2) get Pac-12 After Dark started with the Beavers looking to bolster their case as a conference contender after topping previously unbeaten Utah in Corvallis last Friday.

Cal barely held off a one-win Arizona State team last week and is entering the gauntlet of its schedule — a slate that consists of five straight games against teams ranked in the top 18.

The Beavers have held three of their past four opponents to single digits and easily won all three of those games.

Can they do something similar in Berkeley?

Oregon State’s Pac-12 title hopes remain in tact.

The Beavers' defense — thrashed for 38 points and 528 yards a couple weeks ago by Washington State — responded in a big way against the Utes. Utah mustered fewer than 200 yards of offense as Oregon State suffocated its conference foe, 21-7.

Oregon State’s formula for success has been simple — stout defense and running the ball down the opponent’s throat.

Oregon State’s total defense and scoring defense are both top 25 in the country. The Beavers also boast the fifth-best run defense, a unit allowing just 67.2 yards per game.

On offense, quarterback DJ Uiagalelei hasn’t been asked to do too much thanks to an effective ground game that ranks 16th nationally with 216.0 rushing yards per game.

The combination of Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick has been brutal on opposing defenses (751 combined yards and six touchdowns), and any team that can’t slow them down is in for a long four quarters.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Cal’s offense under new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital has been all about ball control. The Bears rank 21st nationally in time of possession and have a talented running back in Jaydn Ott, who's single-handedly capable of moving the offense down the field.

Ott rushed for 165 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries last week against the Sun Devils and has gone over 150 yards in two of four games this season. Cal is 13th in the country with 212.2 yards rushing per game.

A boost to the running cause is quarterback Sam Jackson V. The Bears handed the reins over to the TCU transfer last week after he split duties with Ben Finley — who missed last week with an injury — earlier in the season.

Jackson is a dual-threat passer who gives the Beavers a little something extra to worry about over a traditional pocket passer. Finley is questionable to return this game, but the difference between he and Jackson is indiscernible from a spread perspective.

The Bears' defense — led by its run stoppers — has been slightly better than average. After holding the Sun Devils to just 68 yards rushing, Cal is allowing just 98.4 rushing yards per game.

However, the Bears can be had through the air. Washington and Arizona State both passed for over 350 yards against Cal, though it's unlikely Uiagalelei is going to throw the ball 40 times.

Although the Beavers are better at executing, these teams aren’t all that dissimilar. Both teams have an above-average defense and an offense that's all about game control and running the ball.

The Beavers are going to try and bully Cal, but the Bears are going to do everything in their power to limit the amount of possessions Oregon State’s potent ground attack receives.

I like the Beavers to win, but I’m not fully convinced they’ll have the ball enough to score often and comfortably cover the spread.

The total is a more attractive angle because either Cal’s offense is going to slow things down and keep this game tight and low-scoring, or the Beavers' defense will just completely shut the Bears down.