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College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks, Predictions for Purdue vs. Iowa: Betting Guide to Big Ten Showdown

College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks, Predictions for Purdue vs. Iowa: Betting Guide to Big Ten Showdown article feature image

Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Hankins.

Purdue vs. Iowa Odds

Purdue Odds +11.5 (-109)
Iowa Odds -11.5 (-112)
Moneyline +370 / -530
Over/Under 43 (-108 / -113)
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Iowa hosts Purdue on Saturday afternoon. The Boilermakers enter this game with a 3-2 record, coming off of an in-conference loss to Minnesota. Iowa enters this game with a 6-0 record as the No. 2 team in the AP Poll.

Purdue is 2-3 against the spread and has gone under in all five games this year. The Hawkeyes carry a 5-1 record ATS and have gone over in just two games.

The fan atmosphere isn’t likely to play as big of an impact as it appeared to play last week, but weather may cause some issues, as there are expected to be steady winds over 15 miles per hour throughout the game.

Purdue vs. Iowa Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 16
3:30 p.m. ET

Purdue Boilermakers

Boilermakers Offense

Purdue has averaged 23.6 points per game and 5.5 yards per play. It averages 25.5 seconds per play, but as you’d assume from its per play average, it hasn’t been particularly efficient. The Boilermakers have an Overall Success Rate of 44% and have managed to score only 3.59 points per opportunity.

Together, Jack Plummer and Aidan O’Connell have combined to be an average quarterback. O’Connell has come in for relief duty in two games before starting against Minnesota.

Purdue has a Passing Success Rate of 45.8% and has averaged 3.2 passes over 20 yards per game. With O’Connell the presumptive starter, the concern is immediately on his five interceptions, particularly against a ball-hawking Iowa defense.

At running back, King Doerue has filled in admirably for the injured Zander Horvath. He’s averaging 4.6 yards per attempt and has contributed as a receiver.

But as a whole, the running game as struggled. The Boilermakers average just 2.9 yards per carry and 90.2 rushing yards per game. They have a Rushing Success Rate of 41.2%, and while their 15.4% Stuff Rate is slightly better than average, their line has created only 2.93 Line Yards per attempt.

Boilermakers Defense

Purdue’s defense has quietly performed very well this year. It’s allowing just 15.4 points per game and 4.9 yards per play while holding opponents to 3.15 points per opportunity. It’s also created Havoc on 17.4% of plays.

Purdue has held opponents to 175.2 passing yards per game, and opposing QBs have completed only 52.1% of their passes. The pass defense has only allowed a 28.6% Passing Success Rate. It’s defended 21 passes but hasn’t created the game-changing plays by forcing turnovers, racking up just two interceptions on the year.

The Boilermaker defense is allowing 125.6 rushing yards per game and has held opponents to 3.8 yards per attempt. It’s forced a Stuff Rate of 17.8% and has held opposing lines to 2.82 Line Yards per attempt. As a whole, the Boilermakers have given up a Rushing Success Rate of just 33.1%.

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Iowa Hawkeyes

Hawkeyes Offense

Are there nice things that can be said about the Iowa offense? Arguably, the best compliment that can be given is that the team has averaged more than 30 points per game.

But the Hawkeyes own a 36.5% Overall Success Rate and have played at a snail’s pace of 29.2 seconds per play. They’ve scored only 3.77 points per opportunity and have allowed a 17% Havoc rate.

Spencer Petras is completing 60.7% of his passes for 6.8 yards per attempt and has thrown nine touchdowns to just two interceptions. But even with his reasonable numbers, Iowa has a Passing Success Rate of just 36%. It’s averaged 3.67 20+-yard passes per game.

On the ground, Tyler Goodson has more than 500 yards and six scores, with nearly 700 total yards from scrimmage.

But for a team that runs the ball 38.7 times per game, there are real concerns about the running game. Iowa has a 36.9% Rushing Success Rate and has been stuffed on 28.1% of attempts. The offensive line has also generated only 2.38 Line Yards per attempt.

Hawkeyes Defense

For all of the negatives about the Hawkeyes offense, there’s an equal number of positives about the defense. The unit allows just 3.25 points per opportunity and creates Havoc on 18.7% of plays. It’s allowed an Overall Success Rate of 36.1%.

The passing defense has gotten plenty of publicity this season, and rightfully so. It’s forced 16 interceptions and has defended 24 passes.  The Hawkeyes are allowing a Passing Success Rate of 34.8% and have allowed only 13 total passing plays over 20 yards.

The run defense has been nearly as strong. For the year, it’s averaging 90.3 rushing yards allowed per game, which ranks 10th nationally.

The Hawkeyes have allowed a Rushing Success Rate of just 37% and have forced a Stuff Rate of 18.2%. Opposing offensive lines have managed to create only 2.63 Line Yards per attempt.

Purdue vs. Iowa Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Iowa match up statistically:

Purdue Offense vs. Iowa Defense
Rush Success 122 27
Line Yards 91 24
Pass Success 36 17
Pass Blocking** 46 63
Big Play 63 1
Havoc 59 20
Finishing Drives 86 35
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Iowa Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Rush Success 127 14
Line Yards 127 44
Pass Success 97 2
Pass Blocking** 101 46
Big Play 113 18
Havoc 110 34
Finishing Drives 77 25
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 23 67
Coverage 110 1
Middle 8 42 51
SP+ Special Teams 68 4
Plays per Minute 52 113
Rush Rate 41.7% (123) 56.6% (56)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.

Purdue vs. Iowa Betting Pick

Sharp money has come in on Purdue to cover, and low-total games typically favor the underdog.

But betting against this Iowa defense seems like an impossible play. At some point, its turnover luck and significant field position advantages will likely balance out, but this seems like another opportunity for the defense to dominate.

However, betting on the Iowa offense is equally scary.

So, for that reason, the best play is on the total. Any total at six touchdowns or better is my preferred play. If the total drops below 42, then I’d likely avoid and make a small play on Purdue at +11.5 or better.

Pick: Under 42 or better

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