Stanford vs. Oregon State Odds, Predictions: Our Top Pick for Saturday’s Pac-12 Duel (November 13)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Chance Nolan.
Stanford vs. Oregon State Odds
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -510 |
First off, I want to say that all Pac-12 games should be played at 7 p.m. PT or later. The Conference of Champions is better after dark. We can't pretend it's not.
Be that as it may, Stanford will head to Reser Stadium to take on Oregon State in a West Coast battle on Saturday afternoon.
The Beavers are coming off back-to-back losses to California and Colorado on the road and needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility.
Fortunately for OSU, the Cardinal are in what feels like the worst shape it's been in all season. Somehow, though, Stanford has clawed its way to 3-6.
The Cardinal have lost four games in a row, but its last win came against Oregon (yes, third in the College Football Playoff, that Oregon).
To say that Stanford is a difficult team to handicap would be a wild understatement, but there's reason to believe a clear advantage exists this weekend for the Beavers. And it's not just the fact that Oregon State is 4-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this season at home.
Stanford Cardinal
Because of COVID-19 scheduling, this will be the third meeting between these schools in a row at Reser Stadium. Last year's game was moved to OSU due to COVID-19 issues.
But there hasn't been much of a home-field advantage for Oregon State, which has lost the last two games by a field goal. Stanford's long winning streak over the Beavers is concerning for OSU and anyone looking to back them. However, Stanford has been awful of late and was at its worst in last Friday's 52-7 loss to Utah.
The Cardinal's quarterback situation is also a mess, with sophomore Tanner McKee being listed as "questionable to doubtful" for this one.
If McKee can't go, the Cardinal will turn to their fourth quarterback of the season in true freshman Ari Patu. With the season in a tailspin, there's no reason not to give him a shot. Stanford has three regular-season games remaining and Patu has three games available to play without losing his redshirt.
Along with McKee being doubtful, Stanford will be without two other starters. Outside linebacker Stephen Herron and cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly were both confirmed as out.
Kelley will be the most significant loss for the Cardinal. As a three-year starting cornerback, he has 50 tackles and a team-high two interceptions.
Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers will look to get back on track after back-to-back losses, most recently a 37-34 overtime defeat last week against Colorado.
Head coach Jonathan Smith took a big step earlier this week to make sure that rebound happens. On Monday, he announced that the defense's progress this season, particularly the past month, has led him to dismiss fourth-year defensive coordinator Tim Tibesar.
The firing of his defensive coordinator struck most as a clear sign that Smith is willing to do whatever it takes for the Beavers to have possibly their best season in eight years. Even with back-to-back losses, the Beavers still have a shot at the Pac-12 North championship.
While it may have been lacking in the past two games, the Beavers' offense, specifically the run game, has been their biggest strength.
Quarterback Chance Nolan has completed 61.7% of his passes for 1,759 yards, 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while B.J. Baylor leads the Beavers in rushing with 970 yards and 11 TDs.
It's hard to criticize Oregon State's running game, the best in the Pac-12 statistically, but it has been inconsistent. The Beavers had explosive plays, but they came up short on multiple occasions when they needed just a few yards to keep the drive alive.
Trevon Bradford leads Oregon State receivers with 28 catches for 421 yards and three touchdowns, while three others have 200 or more receiving yards and five have at least 100. There is no shortage of options for this Oregon State offense that is averaging 441.2 yards per game and 32.9 points, both of which rank inside the top 30 nationally.
The Oregon State defense is a bit of a one-sided attack, but it hasn't been very good as a whole. It ranks 55th in the country at rushing yards allowed per game with just 148.5, but giving up 284 passing yards per game has them positioned outside the top 100.
In total, opponents are averaging 432 yards and 31.1 points per contest against the Beavers.
Stanford vs. Oregon State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Stanford and Oregon State match up statistically:
Stanford Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 91 | |
| Line Yards | 122 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 71 | 64 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 100 | 99 |  |
| Big Play | 82 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 113 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 107 | 80 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oregon State Offense vs. Stanford Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 60 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 103 | 85 | |
| Big Play | 65 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 121 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 60 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 83 | 115 |
| Coverage | 59 | 68 |
| Middle 8 | 77 | 38 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 30 | 36 |
| Plays per Minute | 119 | 89 |
| Rush Rate | 47.% (115) | 61.% (21) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Stanford vs. Oregon State Betting Pick
Stanford has always had Oregon State's number — there's no denying that. However, this Stanford team is maybe the worst the program has had since 2007.
Our Action Network projections have this spread just eight, but it's as high as 13 and climbing on some books. That said, I'm hesitant to lay the full game number here.
Instead, I'll back the Beavers to come out strong and fast in the hunt to secure bowl eligibility.
I got Oregon State first half at -7 (-105) and it can still be found on some books at -6.5 (-120), so be sure to shop around. I don't mind laying more juice here to ensure staying at -7 or below.
Pick: Oregon State 1H -7 (Play to -125)
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