TCU vs. Texas Tech Odds, Picks: The Moneyline Bet to Make for Saturday’s Big 12 Battle (Oct. 9)

TCU vs. Texas Tech Odds, Picks: The Moneyline Bet to Make for Saturday’s Big 12 Battle (Oct. 9) article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Image. Pictured: Zach Evans.

TCU vs. Texas Tech Odds

TCU Odds -2.5 
Texas Tech Odds +2.5
Moneyline -130/ +110
Over/Under 60.5 (-115 / -105)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

An intriguing Big 12 battle between two teams currently heading in opposite directions takes place on Saturday night in Lubbock.

The TCU Horned Frogs head on the road for the first time this season, coming off back-to-back losses to SMU and Texas. The Horned Frogs entered the season with relatively high expectations, so a road victory on Saturday is much needed to get things back on track.

Meanwhile, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are off to a 4-1 start after winning at West Virginia a week ago.

Despite the lopsided Week 4 loss to Texas, the Red Raiders have a lot of momentum brewing right now and a win this week would get them to five victories with Kansas on deck.

Gaining bowl eligibility by mid-October probably wasn’t on many Red Raiders fans minds to begin the year, but that becomes a real possibility with a win on Saturday night.


TCU vs. Texas Tech Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
7 p.m. ET
ESPN

TCU Horned Frogs

TCU Offense

Aside from a couple of unforced errors that led to turnovers, it was another productive outing for the TCU offense last Saturday against Texas.

Zach Evans is one of the most explosive running backs in the country and he continues to be the most dynamic player on this offense, averaging just under eight yards per carry on the year.

Quarterback Max Duggan still seems to be good for a few head-scratching plays a game, but all things considered, he’s leading this offense up-and-down the field. Duggan is at his best when he uses his legs to set up throwing angles or scramble for first-downs.

If there’s one area where this group will need to see some increased productivity, it comes in the red zone. The Frogs currently rank 119th in Finishing Drives.

In what very likely could be a close matchup with Texas Tech, it will be imperative to score touchdowns as opposed to settling for three.


TCU Defense

The Horned Frogs defense continues to struggle now four games into the year.

I was in attendance last week in Fort Worth and saw firsthand the issues this group had with the Texas offense. Containing Bijan Robinson is certainly not an easy task, but he ran all over the TCU defense.

Suffocating and relentless defenses have been a hallmark of the TCU program in the Gary Patterson era, but this group just does not seem to have the talent and togetherness to get anywhere near that point. With a Havoc ranking of 122nd in the country, the Frogs are not forcing turnovers or doing things to get opposing offenses off schedule.

Despite all of the struggles, I still trust Patterson to make some strides with this unit as the year goes on.

Saturday is the first opportunity to right the ship and get things back on track for the duration of the season.

The ultimate CFB betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Collin Wilson’s biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech Offense

When quarterback Tyler Shough went down with injury earlier in the year, Utah State transfer Henry Colombi was ready to be thrown back into the fire. Colombi followed head coach Matt Wells to Lubbock and played a really solid game last week in the win at West Virginia. He has completed 41 of his 58 attempts on the season, and more importantly has only turned the ball over once.

SaRodorick Thompson is the bell cow out of the backfield for the Red Raiders, but he is surprisingly averaging a career-low in yards per carry at 3.5. A lot of that can be explained by a Texas Tech offensive line that struggles to get a huge push in the run game, coming in at 88th in Line Yards on the year. TCU has a hard time stopping the run, so it will be interesting to see if this group can finally have some success in the ground game.


Texas Tech Defense

Last week was a small step in the right direction for a Texas Tech defense that has a ton of issues. The 70 points allowed to Texas speaks for itself but a closer look shows it doesn’t really do anything particularly well.

The Red Raiders come in at 90th in Defensive Rush Success and just 69th in defending the pass.

From a Havoc standpoint, Texas Tech is not forcing turnovers and it has been susceptible to the big play. The combination of Duggan and Evans will be a lot for this unit to deal with.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

TCU vs. Texas Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Texas Tech match up statistically:

TCU Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 39 90
Line Yards 18 38
Pass Success 80 69
Pass Blocking** 8 87
Big Play 65 71
Havoc 16 76
Finishing Drives 119 35
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas Tech Offense vs. TCU Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 82 110
Line Yards 88 24
Pass Success 20 2
Pass Blocking** 40 94
Big Play 39 120
Havoc 57 122
Finishing Drives 102 69
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 125 118
PFF Coverage 104 67
Middle 8 55 78
SP+ Special Teams 95 15
Plays per Minute 76 68
Rush Rate 58.9% (39) 50.6% (89)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


I think the biggest matchup advantage in this contest comes in the run game, which tilts in TCU’s favor.

Evans is averaging nearly eight yards a pop on the ground and the numbers indicate that trend will continue on Saturday night. Texas Tech has been mediocre at best in containing opposing rush offenses and Duggan’s dual-threat ability makes this challenge even tougher.

On the other side of the ball, I don’t think Texas Tech has the hogs up front to take advantage of TCU’s issues in stopping the run. Colombi should be able to have some success through the air, but the Red Raiders have had a lot of issues finishing drives in the red zone.


TCU vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick

This line opened with TCU as a slight favorite and has hovered around -1.5 to -2 throughout the week. I’m keeping it simple and taking the Horned Frogs on the moneyline.

I trust Patterson to keep his locker room in the right frame of mind after two difficult home losses to rivals. Expect a spirited bounce-back effort from the Frogs as they look to get their first Big 12 win of the season.

TCU has the more talented roster, a sense of desperation to get back in the win column and the right head coach to keep the ship afloat. That’s enough for me.

Pick: TCU ML (-125)

How would you rate this article?