College Football Odds, Picks: Week 7’s Biggest Stat Discrepancies, Including Oklahoma State vs. TCU & More
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: TCU defensive back Mark Perry.
The Week 7 college football slate features a number of statistical discrepancies for categories that are key to covering the spread.
Check out three key discrepancies for Week 7 below.
Temple at UCF
Temple Offensive Finishing Drives, 129th · UCF Defensive Finishing Drives, 4th
UCF Offensive Finishing Drives, 106th · Temple Defensive Finishing Drives, 16th
With an opening total of 53.5, the Thursday night battle between Temple and Central Florida is expected to be a low-scoring affair.
The Bounce House welcomes a pair of teams that excel in shutting down opponents in scoring position. Temple is allowing 2.8 points when opponents cross the 40-yard line, while Central Florida allows 2.3 per scoring opportunity.
The defenses have led each team to a 4-1 record to the under through five games this season.
There certainly is a difference between these two teams on the offensive end. Central Florida has been a heavy-rush team led by the elusiveness of quarterback John Rhys Plumlee and bruising running back Isaiah Bowser.
The Temple defense has been keen to shut down opposing rush units, ranking 25th in Stuff Rate.
The Owls offense is where the under could shine, as Temple has just nine red-zone attempts this season for a rank of 130th.
Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss
Arkansas State Havoc Allowed, 124th · Southern Miss Havoc, 23rd
Southern Miss Havoc Allowed, 128th · Arkansas State Havoc, 19th
The Super Bowl of tackles for loss and pass breakups will take place in Hattiesburg in Week 7. Both Southern Miss and Arkansas State have created plenty of defensive chaos, ranking top-25 in Defensive Havoc.
The offenses have been dreadful in ball protection, each ranking in the bottom 10 of all FBS teams in Havoc Allowed. The question is whether or not the traits of the defenses match the inefficiencies of the opposing offenses.
Arkansas State ranks top-20 in tackles for loss with middling ranks in forced fumbles and passes defensed.
Letting defenders enter the backfield has not been the critical error for the Southern Miss offense. The Golden Eagles have 14 fumbles and interceptions combined and a mid-FBS rank in tackles for loss.
The Red Wolves ranks 80th in coverage grading and 128th in explosive passing allowed. If Arkansas State can’t pressure quarterback Zach Wilcke, then Southern Miss will have success in putting points on the board.
As for Arkansas State and Havoc Allowed, the offense line ranks dead last nationally in tackles for loss allowed. This is the sweet spot of a Havoc defense from Southern Miss that ranks 22nd in tackles for loss. Defensive interior Jalen Williams has been crucial in terrorizing opposing backfields, as quarterback James Blackman should add to his 48 scramble yards total for the season.
Oklahoma State at TCU
Oklahoma State Passing Downs Explosiveness, 7th · TCU Passing Downs Explosiveness Defense, 130th
TCU Passing Downs Explosiveness, 16th · Oklahoma State Passing Downs Explosiveness Defense, 77th
Can anyone stop a TCU offense that puts points up in a lightning-like fashion? The Horned Frogs rank top-10 in 20-plus yard rushing plays, which is impressive considering Sonny Dykes’ team has already had a bye week.
Kendre Miller is a top-25 running back in elusiveness and breakaway percentage, while Emari Demercado has averaged more than four yards after contact on 27 rushing attempts this season.
Teams not built to keep a spy on the quarterback have been burned by Max Duggan’s ability to scramble. The Council Bluffs, Iowa, native has eight runs over 10 yards this season.
TCU has also been lethal in passing downs, ranking 16th in explosiveness.
TCU[[! Max Duggan to Quentin Johnston for the 24 yard TD! Incredible job getting a foot down!
Quentin Johnston: 14 catches, 206 yards, 1 TD 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/920WOHPPH9
— 𝗙𝗢𝗟𝗟𝗢𝗪 @𝗙𝗧𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱𝟳 (@FTBeard7) October 8, 2022
Oklahoma State has not had many answers for stopping the big play when offenses are faced with long distances to go, but the offense has a similar advantage as TCU.
Quarterback Spencer Sanders leads a Pokes offense that ranks seventh in passing downs explosiveness — a key variable needed against a TCU defense that ranks 130th in allowing big plays when an offense is behind schedule.
Sanders is having the best deep-ball season of his career, completing 14-of-26 passes longer than 20 yards. More importantly, Sanders has not thrown an interception on any attempt greater than 10 yards this season.
The Cowboys will have firepower of their own with Brennan Presley, but continue to monitor wide receiver Braydon Johnson, who entered concussion protocol during the second half against Texas Tech last week.