Purdue vs. Wisconsin Odds, Picks for Week 8: How to Bet Saturday Afternoon’s Big Ten Battle (Oct. 23)

Purdue vs. Wisconsin Odds, Picks for Week 8: How to Bet Saturday Afternoon’s Big Ten Battle (Oct. 23) article feature image
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Wisconsin vs. Purdue Odds

Saturday, Oct. 23
3 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network
Wisconsin Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3
-117
40
-112o / -109u
-177
Purdue Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3
-105
40
-112o / -109u
+138
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The last 14 times Wisconsin and Purdue have squared off, the Badgers have come out on top. Yes, let me repeat that again: Wisconsin has beaten Purdue 14 times in a row.

This Saturday’s matchup got a lot more intriguing after the events that played out last week.

Purdue went into Iowa City and dominated the Hawkeyes from start to finish. This was no fluky upset, the Boilermakers outgained Iowa 464 to 271 on their own turf.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin pulled out a win against Army, 20-14, to move back to .500 on the season. The Badgers slowed down Army’s triple-option attack and generated just enough offense to secure the victory.

Iowa looked like a lock to capture the Big Ten West in runaway fashion after its hot start, but just like that, the Boilermakers actually control their destiny to win the division.

Furthermore, Wisconsin now has a clear path to the Big Ten title game if it can win this week and then beat Iowa in Madison on Halloween weekend.

As a result, a ton is on the line this week, and you can bet West Lafayette will be buzzing with the newly-ranked Boilermakers coming back home after the massive win.

Will the streak get to 15, or will Purdue decide that enough is enough? Let’s find out.


Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin Offense

It’s hard to find a team in recent memory that has more distinct splits on opposite sides of the ball than the 2021 Wisconsin Badgers.

Seriously, look at the data.

On the offense, the issues start with Graham Mertz. However, there are certainly more issues with this unit than just the quarterback.

Mertz has already thrown seven interceptions to just two touchdown passes in 2021. He hasn’t been accurate down the field and he has been extremely careless with the football.

One other area that stands out, is within the red zone. The Badgers currently rank 124th out of 130 teams in Finishing Drives.

This team is not scoring touchdowns when they move the ball down the field and it won’t get any easier this week against a Purdue defense that ranks eighth in Finishing Drives defensively.


Wisconsin Defense

Things are different on the defensive side of the ball, as the Badgers have been putting on a clinic the entire season. Wisconsin ranks second in the country to Georgia in total defense, fourth in time of possession and second in Line Yards.

The Badgers held Illinois to just 93 yards of total offense in the Week 5 matchup and last week, they held the powerful Army rushing attack to just 179 yards on 50 total carries.

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Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue Offense

Jeff Brohm and the Boilermakers have got to be kicking themselves about what happened against Minnesota at home on October 2nd.

Purdue outgained the Gophers 448-294 and controlled the game for most of the way before two costly turnovers led to a Minnesota comeback. Had the Boilermakers pulled that one out, they’d be sitting at 5-1 and probably inside the top 15 in the country.

That said, this is still a football team with a lot of positive momentum on its side right now.

The quarterback shuffling appears to have worked itself out, with Aidan O’Connell emerging as the guy. O’Connell completed 75% of his passes against Iowa for 375 yards and two touchdowns.

David Bell is one of the most complete wideouts in the nation and continues to be O’Connell’s go-to target. Bell torched a loaded Iowa secondary for 240 yards and 11 receptions a week ago.

The Wisconsin defense presents another stiff challenge, but this Purdue offense has started to click at the right time.


Purdue Defense

Defensively, Purdue continues to be rock-solid across the board.  Notre Dame is the only opponent to exceed 20 points against the Boilers and last week, Spencer Petras and the Iowa offense could not do anything.

Purdue ranks inside the top 20 defensively in both Rush Success and Pass Success and they have elite players on all levels of the defense.

This unit will be licking its chops to face a Wisconsin offense that can’t find any rhythm right now.


Wisconsin vs. Purdue Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wisconsin and Purdue match up statistically:

Wisconsin Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 40 19
Line Yards 32 36
Pass Success 128 4
Pass Blocking** 107 42
Big Play 122 38
Havoc 41 17
Finishing Drives 124 8
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Purdue Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 128 2
Line Yards 106 2
Pass Success 17 3
Pass Blocking** 49 30
Big Play 78 8
Havoc 54 8
Finishing Drives 82 36
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 17 24
Coverage 76 76
Middle 8 62 33
SP+ Special Teams 18 108
Plays per Minute 110 59
Rush Rate 64.1% (14) 42.% (123)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Wisconsin vs. Purdue Betting Pick

It’s clear that both defenses will have the advantage when looking at this matchup. Points will be hard to come by and the turnover battle will go a long way in deciding the outcome.

This line opened with Wisconsin sitting around a 4-point favorite and has slowly dipped a bit since. The O/U is currently sitting at 40.5, and while I would still lean toward the under, that total is so low that I am going to pass.

I find the betting value in this game on the home team getting the points.

Purdue has big-play ability with Bell. If there’s one area that the Wisconsin defense has shown to be somewhat susceptible, it’s against the deep ball.

Look for Purdue to take a lot of shots down the field and cash in on at least a couple of them.

On the other side of the ball, I fully anticipate the Wisconsin offense continuing to struggle. Purdue should be able to stuff the run and then tee off on Mertz when he drops back to pass.

2003 was the last time Purdue has been able to knock off the Badgers. It’s been a long damn time since, but I think you very well may see that streak come to an end this Saturday.

Boiler up, and give me the points.

Pick: Purdue +3.5

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