There's something special about Friday Night Lights.
This week, we have 2 big games on the docket, including a Power 4 clash between the Florida State Seminoles and NC State Wolfpack in the ACC and a Mountain West matchup between the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and UNLV Rebels.
Both games feature a spread under a touchdown, so we should be in for a fun night of college football.
Without further ado, let's take a look at our college football picks and NCAAF best bets for Friday, November 21.
College Football Picks, Best Bets for Friday, Nov. 21
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Florida State vs NC State Pick
By Road to CFB
The winner of this game secures a bowl berth.
That's not quite the accomplishment to these programs as others, but missing a bowl would be a disastrous blemish on the coaching staff's resume and may be the straw that breaks the camel's back for either Mike Norvell or Dave Doeren.
Both teams have shown a tendency this year that points to backing Florida State on the road despite the move through -3.
FSU, when capable, has blown opponents out by an average +23 points per game against power conference competition (Alabama, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech).
NC State has been blown out by more talented teams like Notre Dame and Miami; in power conference losses, NC State has an average -19.2 scoring margin (Duke, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Pitt, Miami).
The chasm between 5-5 for both of these teams is immense. FSU has the ceiling to run away with this game, and NC State has the floor to be run out of its own building.
Gus Malzahn improved this FSU team from the worst power conference offense in the country last year to a top-30 one this year, including a top-15 rushing attack in terms of Success Rate.
FSU generates a quality drive on over 54% of its possessions and scores the 25th-most points per drive in the country. Its undersized skill corps more than makes up for that thanks to dynamic athleticism and a great scheme.
Meanwhile, NC State allows quality drives on 56.3% of opposing possessions and ranks 116th in points per drive allowed (2.88).
This isn't your NC State defense of the early 2020s anymore under Tony Gibson. There aren't the workhorses like Payton Wilson. It's a defense that's regressed into one of the worst units in the ACC.
NC State allows way too many quality drives, and FSU capitalizes on those scoring opportunities with regularity. A bend-don't-break approach with this run game and these athletes is a recipe for disaster.
There's a reason FSU didn't see much resistance moving through -3 to -3.5 and up to -4.5. Aggregate power ratings make the 'Noles a -7 road favorite, which means there's still meat on the bone.
If sharp bettors were excited about NC State, we would have seen this line at least waver in the opposite direction. But we haven't yet.
I'll combine the power ratings with the room for ceiling games for both teams and lay the points with the visitors.
Pick: Florida State -4.5
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Hawaii vs UNLV Pick
By John Feltman
If you like points, this matchup sets up almost perfectly for an over because both offenses walk into clear efficiency advantages against defenses that consistently give up chunk yardage early in drives.
Hawaii's passing game, while inconsistent, actually profiles better than many would think, ranking 52nd in EPA/Pass.
It now gets a UNLV defense that sits at 64th in EPA/Pass allowed and a brutal 110th in Early Downs EPA/Play allowed, meaning the Rebels regularly give up gains that extend drives.
On the other side, UNLV’s offense is built to shred this Hawaii defense.
The Rebels come in with one of the cleanest two-dimensional efficiency profiles in the Mountain West, ranking 32nd in EPA/Pass and an elite eighth in EPA/Rush.
That’s a nightmare for a Hawaii defense that sits 33rd against the pass, which is respectable, but it's horrendous against the run, ranking 125th in EPA/Rush allowed.
When you combine UNLV’s massive rushing advantage, two relatively poor pass defenses, Hawaii’s sneaky passing profile and two offenses that consistently avoid long third downs, you get a matchup with long drives and plenty of explosives.
That means scoring will come in waves instead of isolated moments.
Add in the stylistic fit and Hawaii’s tempo, and the over becomes the clear play.
These efficiency mismatches on both sides point to a game that gets into the 70s unless both teams implode offensively. Neither defense has the metrics to suggest it will be low-scoring.
This has all the ingredients of a fast, high-efficiency track meet in Vegas.
Pick: Over 64.5
