Week 13 of the college football season has arrived. This week, I broke down 3 games and dished out a pick for each.
We'll start out in Eugene, where the No. 7 Oregon Ducks take on the No. 15 USC Trojans in a game that will surely have postseason implications.
Then, the Pitt Panthers will head to Atlanta to take on the No. 16 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in a key ACC clash for both teams' conference title hopes.
Finally, to close out the night, the Cincinnati Bearcats will host the No. 11 BYU Cougars in a Big 12 battle that the Cougars must win to stay at 1 conference loss.
Without further ado, let's take a look at my Week 13 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, November 22.
College Football Picks, Predictions for Week 13
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
USC vs. Oregon Pick
The USC Trojans take on the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday, Nov. 22. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -390. USC, meanwhile, enters as a +9.5 underdog and is +300 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 59.5 total points.
Here’s my USC vs. Oregon prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
USC Trojans
Head coach Lincoln Riley pulled off the home victory over Iowa last week despite a 45% post-game win expectancy. The Hawkeyes posted a 67% Success Rate on 33 rushing attempts, beating USC in the yards-per-play battle.
Southern California did win the turnover battle while creating two or more first downs on 6-of-9 offensive possessions. The ground game was integral to the victory, as Bryan Jackson was used almost exclusively for two red-zone rushing touchdowns.
USC was carved up on the ground by Iowa, falling to 128th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 130th in Defensive Line Yards.
Defensive tackle Keeshawn Silver could be a critical loss this week after exiting the Iowa game and heading to the locker room following a brief stint in the medical tent.
The Trojans own subpar numbers in defending any run concept with a negative EPA against zone read attempts. However, defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn's bunch doesn't give up explosives, with his 2-4-5 scheme ranking 11th in Rush EPA allowed.
The strength of the defense comes in the secondary, owning top-30 rankings in Passing Success Rate allowed, Pass EPA allowed and creating a contested catch.
Bishop Fitzgerald has been one of the best safeties in the nation in terms of coverage grading, producing five interceptions and a trio of pass breakups.
Both Fitzgerald and Kamari Ramsey checked out of the Iowa game with injury, and both will be critical pieces against Oregon in Week 13.
Oregon Ducks
Head coach Dan Lanning survived a trip to Kinnick Stadium with a win over Iowa despite multiple injuries and Midwest weather.
Injuries have been the concern over the past two weeks of conference play, as wideout Dakorien Moore and slot Gary Bryant Jr. each missed the Ducks' victory over Minnesota.
Lanning has been adamant that Moore, who leads the team in targets and yards per route run, will be OK but didn't specify a timeline.
Quarterback Dante Moore did find 10 different targets against Minnesota, as tight end Kenyon Sadiq stole the highlights.
Oregon has struggled to contain the opposing rush all season, recently allowing Minnesota to produce a 67% Success Rate on 21 carries. The Ducks fall to 48th in defensive rush efficiency, with a mid-FBS Success Rate against most run concepts.
The biggest red flag in the rush defense comes against teams using inside zone with two-tight end personnel.
The question remains whether USC will go this route on the ground. So far this season, the Trojans have utilized inside zone with 12 personnel on 54 carries for a high 63% Success Rate.
USC vs. Oregon Prediction
With injuries abundant for both teams, the most critical may come in the secondary for the USC defense.
The Trojans are one of the best tackling teams in the country, ranking 15th in PFF tackle grading and broken tackles allowed. However, backup strong safety Christian Pierce subbed in for Fitzgerald and immediately missed three tackles against Iowa.
With the emergence of Sadiq and the potential return of Moore and Bryant at wideout, Oregon's offense could be at full strength to create explosives at the second level.
Those aspects only encompass Oregon's passing game, but running backs Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison should produce numerous 10-plus yard gains on inside zone carries.
The USC defense has been poor against all run concepts. Davison has become the workhorse option for Oregon with 12 rushing touchdowns on the season.
The Trojans will have the ability to gash the Oregon defense on the ground, but running back Waymond Jordan is once again expected to sit out the trip to Eugene with an injury.
Backup King Miller did see a decline in his numbers against Iowa, lowering his yards after contact to just 2.2 while generating only one explosive run.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava should get the offense moving, but the Ducks have specialized in shutting down opposing passing attacks through quarters coverage.
Pick: Oregon Team Total Over 34.5 · Jordon Davison 2+ TDs (+295)
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Pitt vs. Georgia Tech Pick
The Pitt Panthers take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Atlanta on Saturday, Nov. 22. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Georgia Tech is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. Pitt, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +120 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 62 total points.
Here’s my Pitt vs. Georgia Tech prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Pitt Panthers
Head coach Pat Narduzzi will look to rebound after a blowout loss to Notre Dame in a game that had no impact on the ACC Championship picture.
The Panthers can make their own path with a win over Georgia Tech this week and over Miami in Week 14. Narduzzi's presser focused on defending GT quarterback Haynes King, the next dual-threat signal-caller to face the Pitt defense.
Pitt has found some success against dual-threats, as Notre Dame's CJ Carr and Florida State's Tommy Castellanos were limited to a combined 19 rushing yards.
Counter and power run concepts dominate the ground attack for head coach Brent Key, as Georgia Tech runs on more than 57% of snaps.
Pitt has been highly effective against both power and counter concepts, averaging a negative play on at least 14% of attempts.
On the other side of the ball, freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel has exceeded expectations since taking over starting duties.
The signal-caller has doubled his touchdown-to-interception ratio, but a consistent issue with pressure has limited the quarterback. Notre Dame generated 22 pressures in just 41 dropbacks by Heintschel, resulting in three turnover-worthy plays.
The Pitt offensive line ranks 65th in blocking and may get a reprieve against Georgia Tech, as the Yellow Jackets are 113th in pass rush, per PFF.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech hasn't played its best football over the past two games, which included a loss to NC State and a victory over Boston College.
The Yellow Jackets' loss to the Wolfpack featured a 16% post-game win expectancy, while a 59% post-game win expectancy came when they were heavy favorites over the Eagles.
The defense is the focal point after giving up 8.1 yards per play to Boston College in Week 12. NC State averaged 8.7 yards per play following the same format as Boston College, putting up over 11 yards per play on third downs and in the third quarter.
The best way to combat a broken defense is to score as many points as needed, as evidenced by King's 1,083 passing yards and 11 all-purpose touchdowns over the past three games.
The heavy ground attack led by King, which includes Jamal Haynes in the backfield, has failed to generate explosive plays at the same rate as 2024.
Georgia Tech is one of the most methodical offenses in the country, but it has struggled to maximize points in scoring position. The Yellow Jackets rank sixth in red-zone scoring, but fall to 90th in red-zone touchdown rate.
Pitt vs. Georgia Tech Prediction
Georgia Tech's unwillingness to gamble in scoring position may be a critical aspect against Pitt.
The Yellow Jackets' drop-off in red-zone scoring to touchdown rate is a reflection of playing it safe, as Key's team has attempted only nine fourth downs the entire season.
Despite being a methodical offense that often generates scoring opportunities, King hasn't created explosives at a high level with Georgia Tech ranking 102nd in Rush EPA.
Pitt's defensive front has been fantastic against power and counter concepts, which could limit the Yellow Jackets.
Heintschel isn't expected to see pressure despite the rotation at left tackle due to injuries. Georgia Tech's 113th-ranked pass rush has produced just 18 sacks this season, signaling that the freshman quarterback should thrive in a clean pocket.
The Panthers have also created pass explosives at a top-15 rate, which could be problematic for a Yellow Jackets defense that has been dominated in quarters coverage.
Action Network's betting power ratings line this game right in line with the market, favoring Georgia Tech thanks to home-field advantage.
There's an expectation that Pitt will take over the game in the second half due to the current Middle 8 rankings.
The Panthers rank 16th in Middle 8 scoring differential compared to the Yellow Jackets' rank of 119th — an area that was an issue against NC State and Boston College.
Pick: Pitt +2.5 or Better
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BYU vs. Cincinnati Pick
The BYU Cougars take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Cincinnati, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
BYU is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Cincinnati, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +114 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 total points.
Here’s my BYU vs. Cincinnati prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
BYU Cougars
BYU returned to Provo las week for a blowout victory over TCU, maintaining the inside track to the Big 12 Championship game.
Head coach Kilani Sitake has no room for mistakes in order to force a rematch against Texas Tech, needing a win in Nippert Stadium against Cincinnati.
After struggles with health in a road loss to the Red Raiders, the combination of quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin dominated TCU for 6.2 yards per play.
BYU scored on all five red-zone trips while converting 8-of-15 attempts on third and fourth down.
The BYU offense ranks top-10 in quality drives, using a heavy rush tendency with zone read concepts.
Inside zone has been the primary driver in 11 and 12 personnel, but the explosive ground gains have all come via outside zone this season.
That dynamic of the Cougars' ground attack could be problematic for Cincinnati, which has posted a low 38% Success Rate against inside zone.
Defensive coordinator Jay Hill continues to produce one of the best pass defenses in the FBS. BYU's nickel defense will show multiple looks, including man, Cover 1 and Cover 3 tendencies.
The Cougars remain top-25 in creating a contested catch and top-15 in third-down defense.
The defense does have issues tackling against certain run concepts, particularly inside zone read with light personnel in the box.
Cincinnati Bearcats
A two-game Big 12 losing streak has taken the wind out of the sails for the Bearcats. Injuries have played a role, as running back Evan Pryor and wide receiver Caleb Goodie both missed a recent loss to Arizona.
Pryor had been a stick of dynamite for the outside zone offense, averaging 4.5 yards after first contact with 17 explosive runs.
Goodie was the primary wideout for the team, averaging 18.8 yards per catch with 1.8 yards per route run.
Head coach Scott Satterfield said Goodie will be ready to go and Pryor is very close. Both of those options would be a massive boost for quarterback Brendan Sorsby.
The Bearcats defense has struggled to disrupt opponents, ranking outside the top 100 in Havoc. Cincinnati fields nearly the worst pass rush, per PFF, along with a rank of 113th in creating a contested catch.
Recent opponents have boat-raced the Cincinnati defense, gaining a wealth of yards. Both Arizona and Utah gained over 64% of available yards against the Bearcats, well above the national average of 44% for all FBS offenses.
BYU vs. Cincinnati Prediction
The Cincinnati defense has trended downward over the past eight quarters of play, allowing 75 points and at least 475 yards per contest.
The biggest question is its ability to stop a BYU offense that mauls teams in standard downs with Bachmeier and Martin on the ground.
Considering the Bearcats' defensive struggles with inside zone read, there's an expectation that BYU will create multiple scoring opportunities.
Cincinnati sits outside the top 110 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate, which will be a big negative against the Cougars' ground attack.
The Bearcats had been feasting on Big 12 defenses until the injuries to Pryor and Goodie. Both players are expected to return to an offense that ranks fourth nationally in offensive momentum killer.
The Bearcats have been even better in scoring position, averaging 4.9 points on 61 possessions that crossed the opponent's 40-yard line.
BYU has been exploited on the ground by teams using inside zone, a primary run concept used by Cincinnati.
Cincinnati does run one of the faster offenses in FBS, averaging 24.5 seconds per play. With the Bearcats getting two explosive playmakers back on offense and BYU facing a softer rush defense, scoring opportunities should be abundant.
Although there are no Pryor rushing props in the market as of writing, he should get over his posted total considering the Cougars' poor zone-read defense.
Pick: Over 54 or Better
