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Saturday’s slate offers loads of value with Georgia Tech traveling to Clemson in an ACC rivalry, Notre Dame hosting Boston College in the Holy War, and Minnesota heading to Penn State in a Big Ten battle; there’s a great lineup of games to add to your betting card.
I’ve pinpointed three player props for Saturday, including picks for Georgia Tech’s Dalen Penson, Notre Dame’s Jaden Greathouse, and Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey.
With that said, let's dive into my top three college football player props and NCAAF picks for Week 11 on Saturday, Nov. 14.
College Football Player Props, Picks
- Dalen Penson Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114 · FanDuel)
- Jaden Greathouse Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115 · bet365)
- Drake Lindsey Over 30.5 Passing Attempts (-125 · bet365)
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Dalen Penson Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Dalen Penson has been one of the most dependable pass catchers on Georgia Tech’s roster. The sophomore, who only moved from cornerback to receiver this offseason, has 33 catches for 500 yards and has reached at least 50 receiving yards in seven of nine games.
That includes 86 yards and a touchdown at Virginia Tech, 88 and a touchdown against Boston College, and 66 on five catches against Louisville last week. He’s a 15-yards-per-catch player who gets his production on a steady diet of short throws, and his only real problem has been the quarterback instability around him.
The game script points toward pass volume. Georgia Tech is a 13.5-point road underdog, and its defense allows 32.2 points and more than 222 rushing yards a game, so Clemson should lean on the run, and the Yellow Jackets will have to throw to keep pace.
Nearly 60% of Tech’s throws travel fewer than 10 yards, a quick-game approach that creates a steady flow of targets. Penson and tight end Kevin Roche are the underneath options, with Jordan Allen working the outside.
Clemson’s defense is good but has been beatable through the air. The Tigers allow about 213 passing yards a game on 6.6 yards per attempt, and Syracuse threw for 263 on them last week. With Georgia Tech trailing, Penson needs only four or five catches at his usual 15 yards a grab to clear this number.
Pick: Dalen Penson Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114)Â
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Jaden Greathouse Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Jaden Greathouse has a clear role in a high-powered offense. The senior has 23 catches for 308 yards this season, and he has cleared 29.5 in four of eight games, including a career-best eight catches for 125 yards at BYU.
More relevant to this spot, he went over in three of Notre Dame’s biggest blowouts, with 30 yards and a touchdown against Stanford, 36 at Purdue, and 48 against Rice. When the Irish are comfortably ahead, Carr spreads the ball around early, and Greathouse is among his first reads.
The matchup sets up for a similar script. Notre Dame is a roughly 29.5-point favorite with a total above 52, and Carr has been nearly flawless, throwing for 2,168 yards and 21 touchdowns against one interception.
Boston College’s defense is better against the pass than the run, so Notre Dame’s best path early is through the air. At 6-foot-1 and 212 pounds, Greathouse is the sort of receiver who turns a short throw into a chunk play, as his 38-yard catch at BYU and a 48-yard touchdown earlier this year showed.
He only needs two or three catches to cash this ticket. With the injuries that cost him most of last season behind him and his role growing as the year has gone on, 29.5 is a reasonable bar for a player with his big-play ability.
Pick: Jaden Greathouse Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Drake Lindsey Over 30.5 Passing Attempts (-125)
Action PRO projects 34.4 attempts for Drake Lindsey, nearly four above this line, and the data supports that. He is averaging about 33 attempts a game, which is 23rd in the country, and he has cleared 30.5 in five of nine starts.
The more telling stat is when he has done it: in each of Minnesota’s four losses he threw 37 or more times, with 48 against Mississippi State, 39 against Purdue, and 37 against both Indiana and UCLA. In wins, he usually threw 31 or fewer.
Minnesota is a 9.5-point underdog at Penn State, which is the kind of spot that produces a loss script. The Gophers’ run game is among the worst in the country, ranking near the bottom in rushing, so even when they try to establish the ground game, falling behind pushes them to the air.
Penn State’s pass defense is elite on a per-play basis, ranking third nationally at 144.8 yards a game and first in yards per attempt. That means incompletions and more attempts to move the chains. The Nittany Lions also have only 11 sacks this season, which ranks 120th, so Lindsey should get time to throw.
Minnesota is a pass-first team with a 6-foot-5 quarterback who is on the field for most of the game, and the Gophers are likely to be chasing the game.
Pick: Drake Lindsey Over 30.5 Passing Attempts (-125)
