College Football Playoff Betting Market: Vegas Sportsbooks Need Clemson on Saturday

LAS VEGAS — Well, the big games are finally here.

Judging by the activity at the windows around Vegas, bettors are certainly getting amped for Notre Dame-Clemson and Oklahoma-Alabama.

And with New Year's Eve falling on a Monday, many of the sportsbooks expect the action to keep rolling in as partyers land for the weekend.

I spoke with some of the biggest sportsbooks in Sin City ahead of the weekend to get the details on the type of action they're getting — and the teams they'll be pulling for in the College Football Playoff.

Cotton Bowl: Clemson (-12.5) vs. Notre Dame | Over/Under: 56.5

This game is seeing a bit more two-way action around town than the later Orange Bowl. It's hard to gauge if that's because there's simply more Notre Dame fans overall here or they think the Irish have a genuine shot to pull the  upset.

There was some small line movement when it was announced that Clemson's star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence was going to miss the game due to a positive drug test. The market didn't overreact as most places saw the line move a half-point at most.

"The public was on the Irish from the get-go here," Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management at CG Technology, said. "Even before any of the scuttlebutt of any suspensions were even being discussed. The ticket count is very lopsided here."

As is the case at other books, some Notre Dame bettors are foregoing the double-digit spread and hoping the luck of the Irish comes through.

"While there are some solid bets on Notre Dame with the points, bettors seem really attracted to the moneyline on the Irish," Simbal said. "When the spread here was +13 the money line was only +350. Typically, when a line is at +13 the money line is normally much closer to +400. There have genuinely been zero bets on Clemson moneyline."

Even though you'd have to lay $425 to win $100 on the Tigers moneyline, sportsbooks usually see some big, sharp bets come in on the favorites in these type of games. That doesn't seem to be happening with this one.

"[All the moneyline bets] seem to be on Notre Dame, some decent-sized bets too like $3,000 and $4,000 at +350 on the Irish money line. So, we're definitely going to need Clemson to win this game and likely cover. We're currently seeing three-and-a-half times more tickets being written overall on Notre Dame over Clemson," Simbal added.

Derek Wilkinson, a supervisor at the Westgate SuperBook, said there's serious Irish interest at their shop but the sharps haven't been tempted by the big number with Notre Dame.

"We’ve got a five-figure wager on Notre Dame moneyline at 4-1," Wilkinson began. "The moneyline has since dropped to +325, but there's definitely an accumulation of other Notre Dame bets. We need Clemson pretty significantly at the moment, but I’m anticipating some sharp money to come in on Clemson late. We're at -12.5 at the moment and I think we could see that line bump up a little bit before kickoff."

Things are a little different at the Rampart, according to assistant sportsbook manager Duane Colucci.

"The news about Lawrence did move the line here just a tick from -12.5 to -12, but the early money here was on Clemson but it got steam rolled from -11 all the way up to -13," Colucci said. "We're definitely seeing some buyback since -13 was an intriguing number but I still have faith in Clemson covering this line fairly easily. We're certainly getting solid interest on Notre Dame but it doesn't seem to be at the volume it's coming in on the strip."

Orange Bowl: Alabama (-14) vs. Oklahoma | Over/Under: 77

There were a few moments in the SEC Championship game where Alabama suddenly looked vulnerable against Georgia. Wunderkind quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was hurting and the Tide's season appeared to be on the brink.

Even though Alabama was able to escape with the win, you'd think the mediocre performance would have scared bettors away a little bit. But cooler heads seemed to have prevailed and there is growing confidence at the sportsbooks that Alabama is on course to coast against Kyler Murray and Oklahoma.

Most of the bookmakers I spoke with seem to think that bettors are more confident in this game than the Cotton Bowl. This line opened at -14 and really hasn't moved much, but some punters are certainly seeing value on Oklahoma at +450.

"Most of our liability is on Alabama, but we do have some moneyline bets on Oklahoma as well. Oklahoma at +450 is too hard to resist for some people," Wilkinson said. "However, I don’t think they stand a chance. Alabama is just on a different level than every other team in football right now. It’s going to take some very aggressive play calling and trick plays for Oklahoma to hang with ‘Bama, but I just don’t see it happening. We’ll surely be rooting for them though."

Simbal said the CG sportsbooks are also seeing some traffic coming in on the Sooners moneyline.

"The fans still seem to be backing Oklahoma here. Now, not to the extent they're backing Notre Dame in the other game, but they are backing the Sooners here," Simbal noted. "The ticket count is higher currently on Oklahoma. However, a lot of this is attached to a huge number of two-team parlays of Oklahoma +450 with Notre Dame +325. God forbid, if that ticket comes in, it could be one of our ugliest days ever at CG. But I'm surprised how much the bettors are taking a shot with the Sooners, much more on the moneyline at +450 and with the parlays than with a bet at +14."

At the Rampart, Colucci hasn't seen much line movement in either direction but players there are focusing on the over/under.

"Fourteen is a key number and I just don't see that line moving at all as we get closer to kickoff," he said. "However, the total here is currently 77.5 and it came down a little from an opening number of 78.5 here. I could definitely see this total go back up as the more casual players come into town in the next couple of days."

Other Odds and Ends

There are a few other big bowl games being played on Saturday including the Peach Bowl, which features Michigan (-6) vs. Florida.

Smart money is shaping the market for that game.

"In other Saturday bowl games, we have seen sharp bets on Florida move that number down in their game against Michigan," Wilkinson said. "It looks like a lot of key players won’t be in the game for Michigan and it appears they aren’t motivated at all for the Peach Bowl against Florida. Virginia (-5.5 against South Carolina in the Belk Bowl) is another side that has seen sharp money on both the spread and moneyline."