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Colorado vs USC Odds, Prediction: Betting Value on Home Favorite

Colorado vs USC Odds, Prediction: Betting Value on Home Favorite article feature image

Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images. Pictured: USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams.

Colorado vs USC Odds

Friday, Nov. 11
9:30 p.m. ET
Colorado Odds
-110o / -110u
USC Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Pac-12 has its top program matching up with its bottom program under the Friday night lights.

There likely won’t be much drama in this matchup except from a betting perspective. USC enters this contest 8-1 with its sole loss coming by one point to Utah in mid-October.

The Trojans have been carried by their powerhouse offense that ranks sixth in the nation in scoring. Despite that, they've only beaten their six Pac-12 opponents by an average margin of 10 points per game.

USC has an opportunity to increase that number against a Colorado program that has hit rock bottom. The Buffaloes have been double-digit underdogs in every game this season for good reason. The group has one win on the season and lost its eight games by an average of four touchdowns per game.

Colorado could be in for another long night as it faces its toughest opponent of the season.

Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado is without a doubt the worst team in the Power Five.

The Buffaloes rank 122nd in the nation according toCollin Wilson’s power ratings as the program fired head coach Karl Dorrell after starting out 0-5. Interim head coach Mike Sanford Jr. stole a victory the following week but has since been dismantled by Oregon State, Arizona State and Oregon.

The program has had a quarterback carousel with no real viable option. Quarterback Owen McCown showed the most promise by providing mediocre stats, but he’s since been injured.

The Buffaloes will be going back to J.T. Shrout under center this week. Shrout has completed 44% of his passes for an average of 5.9 yards per attempt. The Sophomore quarterback has six interceptions to go along with six touchdown passes in his seven starts.

Colorado ranks 121st in the nation averaging only 5.9 yards per pass attempt this season. The lack of any aerial threat has allowed opposing defenses to focus on slowing down the run. Colorado owns a Rush Rate of 50% despite averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, which also ranks 100th nationally.

The main concern for the Buffaloes in this matchup is how they slow down the high-powered Trojans offense. And the answer is clear: they can’t.

Colorado ranks 127th in the nation allowing over 40 points and 490 yards of total offense. The Trojans are poised to find the end zone frequently, both through the air and on the ground.

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USC Trojans

The Trojans will be using this matchup as a tune-up game with important clashes against UCLA and Notre Dame looming.

The Trojans will own the advantage in nearly every aspect of this matchup.

Offensively, USC is scoring 41 points per game while averaging 7.1 yards per play. Travis Dye has been one of the best running backs in the nation averaging 6.3 yards per carry and nine touchdowns this season. He will move the chains on the ground at will against a unit that ranks among the bottom of the country, allowing 6.1 yards per rush and 237 rushing yards per game against FBS competition.

It will be the same story for quarterback Caleb Williams, who is averaging over 300 passing yards per game. Williams is completing 65% of his passes while tossing a whopping 28 touchdowns to only one interception this season.

USC’s defense has been the chink in the armor for the Trojans this season. The group ranks 123rd in Rushing Success Rate and is allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

Though with a step down in class against a one-dimensional offense, I anticipate them to button that up this week.

Colorado vs USC Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado and USC match up statistically:

Colorado Offense vs. USC Defense
Rush Success70123
Line Yards9287
Pass Success11397
Pass Blocking**6072
Finishing Drives11887
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

USC Offense vs. Colorado Defense
Rush Success7127
Line Yards198
Pass Success13126
Pass Blocking**38127
Finishing Drives11131
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling13172
PFF Coverage13068
SP+ Special Teams25115
Seconds per Play25.9 (53)26.3 (64)
Rush Rate50.4% (84)47.7% (100)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Colorado vs USC Pick

I’m not sure how Colorado can find a way to keep this game within reach.

The Buffaloe' defense has been one of the worst units in history for a Power Five program. Colorado ranks among the bottom 10 in the country in points per game, yards per game and yards per play this season.

Now, they’re tasked with slowing down one of the most elite offenses in the country. That’s a task that is insurmountable, reminiscent of David vs. Goliath.

USC can basically name the score in this matchup, and I envision it blowing the doors open early in this matchup.

The Trojans have put up 40 or more points in seven of their nine matchups this season. We saw they aren’t afraid to run up the score in the 66-14 victory over Rice, and they will keep their foot on the gas pedal in this matchup.

I’m laying the points with USC, which has the potential to win this game by 50 as long as it isn’t looking ahead to next week.

Pick: USC -34 ⋅ Play to -35

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