Duke vs Louisville Odds, Prediction: How Riley Leonard’s Status Impacts Pick

The Duke Blue Devils and Louisville Cardinals have met only three times in history. Now, they'll go to battle as top-20 conference foes when the Cardinals host the Blue Devils in the Bluegrass State.

Louisville won all three of the previous meetings, toppling Duke in 2002 (40-3), 2016 (24-14), and, most recently, 2021 (62-22).

The Cardinals now enter as -6 favorites with an over/under of 45.5, but that line is heavily dependent on the status of star Duke quarterback Riley Leonard.

With Leonard’s status up in the air, where does the value lie here? Let’s dive into the Duke vs. Louisville odds and make a prediction and pick in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 28.

Leonard first suffered a high ankle sprain in a Sept. 30 loss to Notre Dame before leaving the field on crutches.

The Blue Devils signal-caller missed one game before returning last week against Florida State. Duke actually led FSU, 20-17, throughout the third quarter, but Leonard was once again knocked out after completing 7-of-16 passes for 69 yards and an interception.

His ability to change the game on the ground was also greatly impacted, which is paramount to everything Duke wants to do offensively.

Head coach Mike Elko has said Leonard is “day-to-day,” making his status for the Louisville game the most important factor of the handicap.

If Leonard is good to go, the Blue Devils will certainly be able to take advantage of a Louisville defense that struggles to defend the pass. The Cardinals rank 76th in PFF coverage grade and own a mark of 129th in Passing Downs EPA per Play

However, that’s not a guarantee if Henry Belin IV gets the nod under center.

The freshman has completed just five of his 18 passes over the past two games for a total of 114 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. When he took over against the Seminoles following Leonard’s departure, he looked like a deer in the headlights, going 1-of-6 for seven yards in 1.5 quarters of action.

The other question is whether or not Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer will have success throwing against a Blue Devils secondary that ranks top-10 in PFF coverage grading and Defensive Passing Success Rate.

Elko runs Cover 1 and Cover 3 on 60% of snaps, and Plummer has over a 50% Success Rate against both coverages to go along with a bit of explosiveness against Cover 3.

However, the Cardinals struggle to finish drives when they cross their opponent’s 40-yard line. They rank just 84th in Offensive Finishing Drives and average only 3.6 points per trip across the 40.

That’s certainly a concern against an Elko-led defense.

Louisville has been a threat on the ground throughout the season, ranking 12th in Offensive Rushing Success Rate and 39th in Rushing EPA per Play. Much of that can be attributed to lead back Jawhar Jordan, who leads the team with 661 yards and eight scores on the ground on 7.4 yards per carry.

However, Jordan is dealing with a hamstring injury, and his status is unknown for Week 9. He saw action on the first drive of Louisville’s last game against Pitt two weeks ago but left the game and didn’t return after receiving two carries.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and Louisville match up statistically:

Duke Offense vs. Louisville Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	54	20
Line Yards	57	8
Pass Success	27	35
Havoc	31	47
Finishing Drives	45	95
Quality Drives	37	16

Louisville Offense vs. Duke Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	12	77
Line Yards	61	96
Pass Success	41	8
Havoc	45	34
Finishing Drives	84	16
Quality Drives	19	5

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	70	15
PFF Coverage	9	76
Special Teams SP+	47	60
Middle 8	42	95
Seconds per Play	29.4 (109)	27.5 (80)
Rush Rate	59.2% (20)	54.2% (63)

The Action Network projection makes this Louisville -1, but the -6 number out in the market is a reflection of Leonard being doubtful, and we can expect that number to continue to move depending on his final status.

No matter if Leonard suits up or not, this game is ripe for an under.

While there’s no doubt that Jeff Brohm’s offense has some explosiveness, it’s going to be difficult to expose a Duke defense that comes in at 11th in preventing explosive plays.

With potential struggles converting drives into points, the best wager an investor can make with all the uncertainty is under 46 if Leonard sits and under 53 if he plays.