College Football Picks, Prediction for FIU vs Sam Houston: Can Bearkats Win First Game?
Chris Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Houston’s Keegan Shoemaker.
FIU vs Sam Houston Odds
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 41.5 -115o / -105u | +180 |
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 41.5 -115o / -105u | -225 |
FIU will travel to Sam Houston for a Wednesday night CUSA matchup.
These two teams are both rated as some of the worst in FBS to this point in the season, but there's one team I believe is being undervalued due to its strength of schedule, giving us some potential value in the spread.
Let’s take a look at my preview and best bet for FIU vs. Sam Houston on Wednesday night.
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FIU has had a tough go of it this season, particularly on offense, as it's been one of the worst teams in FBS yet again. Its overall record may look OK at 3-4, but this team's two FBS wins have come over North Texas and UConn. Both of those squads rank 99th or lower in SP+ and have defenses that rank 125th or worse.
Even with a relatively easy schedule, the Panthers rank 117th in Offensive Success Rate, 125th in Finishing Drives and 127th in Havoc. Their offense is rated as the 118th-best unit in the country by SP+.
While FIU throws the ball more than it runs, it's been worse through the air. FIU sits 120th in Passing Success Rate compared to 76th on the ground. The rushing attack for FIU has been explosive this season (22nd) even if it's been disappointing on a down-to-down basis.
This offense has been a mess when it gets out of standard downs. In passing downs, the Panthers are 126th in Offensive Success Rate and 111th in PPA, compared to 97th and 88th in those two categories on standard downs.
Defensively, FIU comes in at 54th in Success Rate and 30th in Finishing Drives. It's buoyed by its passing defense, which ranks 38th in Success Rate and 59th in PPA.
Allowing explosive plays has been an issue for this unit, which ranks 93rd in explosiveness allowed and 112th in passing explosiveness allowed.
While I thought Sam Houston would get it done last week against New Mexico State, I was very wrong. The Bearkats offense posted a higher Success Rate than NMSU, but three turnovers on downs and a missed field goal kept SHSU from hanging around.
This offense has been putrid this season, ranking 132nd in Success Rate, 126th in Finishing Drives and 112th in explosiveness. However, as I noted last week, it's played a fairly tough schedule of opposing defenses.
Sam Houston showed life against a bad NMSU defense that's comparable to FIU's, posting a Success Rate in the 53rd percentile and averaging 5.39 yards per play. While these aren’t numbers to write home about, but it was better than what it's shown most of this year, which leads me to believe it could have a similar performance this week.
The Bearkats defense has carried them to this point, ranking 61st in Success Rate and 67th in Finishing Drives. Despite their abysmal rating on offense, they have the 72nd-best defense in the country, according to SP+.
The strength of this defense has been against the run, where it ranks 47th in Success Rate. However, it still ranks a solid 76th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
FIU vs Sam Houston
Betting Pick & Prediction
I still believe Sam Houston is better than its season-long numbers show due to its strength of schedule. While things didn’t quite go the Bearkats' way last week, I think they'll pick up their first FBS win over FIU and cover while doing so.
SHSU has a legitimate defense that will be able to shut down FIU’s offense. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers’ 120th-ranked defense will be one of the weaker units that the Bearkats have faced this year, leading to some offensive success.
I like Sam Houston to break its losing streak and cover this five-point spread in front of its home crowd.
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