The No. 18 Florida State Seminoles (3-1, 01 ACC) host the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (4-0) on Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Hurricanes have looked like a top-five team this season, toppling Notre Dame to open the season and downing in-state rival Florida, 26-7, two weeks ago before enjoying a bye week.
On the other side, the Seminoles are coming off their first loss of the season — a 46-38 overtime loss to conference foe Virginia last Friday night.
The Canes enter as -4.5 favorites (-175 on the moneyline), while the Noles come in as +4.5 underdogs (+145 on the moneyline). The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 53.5 total points.
Let's take a look at the Florida State vs. Miami odds and our college football picks for this top-20 ACC clash on Saturday, October 4.
Florida State vs. Miami Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -108 | 53.5 -112o / -108u | -175 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -112 | 53.5 -112o / -108u | +145 |
By Alex Hinton
Other rivalries have a more longstanding history and over 100 meetings. Miami and Florida State have met just 69 times. However, few rivalries match the passion, intensity and future NFL talent on the field when these hated rivals get together.
There are several players on both teams who grew up together and played with or against each other in high school in the fertile recruiting grounds of Florida.
Florida State will host another large group of visitors who will play in future editions of this series.
Last year, Miami snapped FSU’s three-game winning streak in the series. However, it was a bit anticlimactic with the Seminoles enduring a 2-10 regular season.
Many of the prior installments in this series have had national title implications. These teams have met 27 times with both ranked in the AP Top 25, but this will be the first one since 2016.
Despite last week’s loss at Virginia, Florida State’s national title hopes are not over yet in the era of the 12-team College Football Playoff. Its resume already features a top-10 victory over Alabama that will continue to age well if the Crimson Tide can navigate their SEC gauntlet.
A win over its rival will also help Florida State make up ground in the ACC Championship race.
Miami has been battle-tested as well with victories over Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida.
Quarterback Carson Beck has managed an efficient offense, while dominant line play on both sides of the ball has fueled Miami’s 4-0 start. This week, it will hit the road for the first time this season.
Will Miami survive its first road test? We polled nine of our college football writers to get their takes on Saturday’s spread and over/under, so let’s dive in.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Miami -4.5
Expect every single member of the Action Network Staff to be decked out in a turnover chain and cheering on Sebastian the Ibis on Saturday. There will be no garnet and/or gold allowed; it’s a clean sweep on Miami to cover the -4.5 spread in Tallahassee.
Both the Hurricanes and Seminoles boast attractive resumes against the spread (3-1), but a couple of factors stick out for Miami.
First, Miami has benefited from an early-season routine and a lack of travel.
Whereas certain ACC teams have flown cross-country, the Hurricanes have played all four games this season at home.
And what do you know? They don’t have to travel out of the state of Miami for their first real “road” game of the season.
Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have flourished as favorites this season, allowing just 22 total points across three games.
Our own Collin Wilson power-rates Miami No. 10 in the country and has Florida State at No. 25. The Hurricanes are rated a full six points higher than their in-state foes.
Last year’s line closed Miami -23, and it took a garbage-time touchdown for FSU to cover in the Hurricanes’ 36-14 win.
Florida State’s roster is better than last year’s, but it's a square’s version of a sharp play Saturday.
We’ll roll with Carson Beck and a defense allowing just 4.2 yards per play on the season to show out in Miami’s first road game of the season.
Over/Under Pick
Over 53.5 | 5 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 53.5 | 2 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 53.5
Eight of the last 10 between the Hurricanes and Seminoles have finished under the total, but our staff expects the trend to reverse Saturday.
We’ll take the over 54.
Both programs have oddly struggled over the years trying to find consistent quarterback play. However, both offenses seem to have their “guy.”
Florida State is operating under Tommy Castellanos, who’s guided the Seminoles to 7.4 yards per play — good for fourth in the country.
Castellanos’ rushing ability also helps keep FSU balanced. After last year’s disaster experiment with DJ Uiagalelei, the Seminoles are well-positioned to keep an improved Miami defense on its heels.
Carson Beck, meanwhile, has played like a Heisman candidate in offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson’s offense.
Some questioned the drop-off from Cam Ward to Beck. While the unit may not be as explosive — Miami played a ton of track meets last year due to a poor defense — it’s well-oiled under Beck.
He’s only been pressured 17 times and sacked another three all season.
PRO Report reveals sharps and experts also betting the over. We’ll be rooting for points Saturday in Tallahassee.
