College Football Odds, Picks for Indiana vs. Maryland

Just as everyone expected, the 4-0 Maryland Terrapins have made it to the end of September undefeated and looking like a potential threat to topple at least one of the Big Ten East heavyweights.

The Terps have one more "tune-up" game in the form of Indiana this week before heading off to Columbus to face the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Indiana (2-2) escaped Week 4 by the hair on its chinny-chin-chin in quadruple overtime against an Akron team that finished 2-10 last season.

With the toughest portion of Maryland’s season yet to come, do the Terps get caught looking ahead, or will they cover as favorites over a Big Ten opponent for the second week in a row?

Let's dive into the Indiana vs. Maryland odds and make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Sept. 30.

The verdict was split on Indiana heading into last week. The Hoosiers were 1-2, with the losses coming to currently undefeated Ohio State and Louisville. But needing quadruple overtime to beat Akron rightfully should set off some alarms.

Indiana blew a 17-10 lead against the Zips with less than four minutes remaining before eventually keeping Akron out of the end zone on a two-point conversion attempt in the fourth OT.

Tayven Jackson played the worst game of his young career, completing just 11 of his 26 passes for 190 yards, a touchdown and an interception against a middling MAC defense.

Offense has been the area of concern for the Hoosiers this season. Indiana hasn’t scored more than 17 regulation points in its three games against FBS opponents and ranks 103rd in total offense with 337.5 yards per game — a stat that includes a 558-yard outburst against Indiana State.

Despite all of the struggles on offense, the Hoosiers defense has kept them in games. Indiana held Ohio State to just 23 points in Week 1 and limited the fifth-best offense by total yards in the country, Louisville, to a season-low in both points (21) and yards (422).

Indiana’s biggest liability on defense has been stopping the run. The Hoosiers defense ranks 117th in Run Success after allowing Akron to run for 263 yards on 40 carries — almost 200 yards more than the Zips’ previous season high.

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Don’t look now, but the Terps are one of 27 remaining unbeaten teams in the country with the best statistical offense in the Big Ten.

Maryland finally avoided a third-straight slow start in its game at Michigan State last week, jumping out to a three-touchdown first-half lead over the Spartans. The offense sputtered for much of the second half before a late touchdown provided the final margin of 31-9.

The Terrapins haven’t exactly played a scary slate of opposing defenses, but the offense has looked impressive nonetheless. Maryland ranks second in the conference behind only Penn State in points per game (37.3) and first in yards per game (450.5).

Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Big Ten with 278.0 passing yards per game and is tied for the conference lead with eight passing touchdowns in an offense that spreads the ball around. Six players have double-digit receptions on the season, with no one having more than 17.

Indiana has fared pretty well against the pass this season, so Maryland’s run game could play an important part in this game.

Despite Roman Hemby returning after a 989-yard freshman season, the Terps have used an effective committee approach this year, ranking 45th in Run Success.

Maryland’s defense has not been tested much this season, with the Spartans serving as its "toughest” test. The Terps have been extremely opportunistic on defense, forcing 11 turnovers on the season — tied with Penn State for the second-most in the country.

Its front seven, however, can be had.

The Terps are 116th and 95th in Rush Success Allowed and Havoc, and they haven’t faced a murderer’s row of rushing offenses. Their two Power 5 opponents — Virginia and Michigan State — both rank outside the top 115 in rushing yards per game.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Maryland match up statistically:

Indiana Offense vs. Maryland Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	129	116
Line Yards	94	113
Pass Success	45	39
Havoc	57	95
Finishing Drives	103	7
Quality Drives	57	12

Maryland Offense vs. Indiana Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	45	117
Line Yards	51	117
Pass Success	41	71
Havoc	20	55
Finishing Drives	41	20
Quality Drives	28	46

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	93	17
PFF Coverage	27	43
Special Teams SP+	54	88
Middle 8	108	21
Seconds per Play	28.7 (96)	26.0 (49)
Rush Rate	53.5% (61)	47.7% (90)

Indiana will be Maryland’s and Tagovailoa’s toughest test to date, but I still think the Terps will have success moving the ball. Even if Maryland’s passing game is slowed, it has a strong enough running game that should be effective against the Hoosiers.

This ultimately comes down to Indiana’s offense, or rather lack thereof.

The Hoosiers were held out of the end zone against Ohio State, and they mustered only 14 points against a Louisville defense that allowed four touchdowns to both Georgia Tech and Boston College.

This is theoretically a look-ahead spot for the Terps with Ohio State on deck, but I just don’t see Indiana being able to score enough points to keep this within the number.

Even if Maryland opts to run the air out of this game in the fourth quarter, the Terps will still be able to move the ball and keep it out of Indiana’s hands.