Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina Odds & Prediction: Bet This Over/Under
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers quarterback Grayson McCall
Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina Odds
It's Conference USA vs. the Sun Belt in an early-season non-conference matchup.
For Jacksonville State, it's a chance to truly make itself known at the FBS level.
For Coastal Carolina, it's a chance to get things back on track after a season-opening loss.
Jacksonville State has started off its FBS run with back-to-back wins, including an upset win over UTEP. The Gamecocks will look to maintain their perfect record in FBS play by upsetting Coastal Carolina.
Coastal Carolina is hoping to bounce back from its loss to UCLA with a win over the FBS newcomers. The Chanticleers managed to cover as 15.5-point underdogs on the road, but they'll look for a win and cover as two-touchdown favorites in their home opener.
Temperatures will range from 74 to 80 degrees with slight winds during this Saturday night game. This weather shouldn't impact the matchup in a significant manner.
The Gamecocks are led by Rich Rodriguez, who's in his second season as the head coach. They went 9-3 in his opening campaign. Through two games, they've averaged 33 points per game and 4.6 yards per play. They've finished drives well, with an average of 4.2 points per opportunity and have maintained a solid 46% Success Rate.
This team heavily relies on the running game, as its averaged just 19.5 passes during its first two games. This aligns with the Gamecocks' 2022 campaign that saw them average 20.6 pass attempts per game.
Zion Webb and Logan Smothers have shared the passing load thus far and have completed 59% of their passes for just under 5.0 yards per attempt.
As a team, the Gamecocks have a 41% Passing Success Rate.
As you'd expect from a Rodriguez team, the true success has been from the run game. The Gamecocks average 50 rush attempts per game for an average of 4.5 yards per attempt.
Leading the way for this run game is Malik Jackson. He has turn his 26 touches into 192 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns.
As a team, the Gamecocks have a 50% Rushing Success Rate.
One key factor for the early success for Jacksonville State has been its ability to limit Havoc. It's allowed just a five percent Havoc Rate, which leads the nation.
Defense has done enough to win the Gamecocks' two opening games, but this matchup will be a significant step up in talent then what they've experienced to date. They've allowed 3.52 points per opportunity and only allowed a 38 ^ Success Rate.
One concern is that they've only generated Havoc on five percent of plays.
Tim Beck will lead the Chanticleers for the second time. After suffering a loss in his debut as head coach, he'll look to get things back on track quickly. They averaged 4.5 yards per play on their way to a 27-13 loss. The offense had a 41.5% Success Rate and scored 1.67 points per opportunity.
Grayson McCall remains under center for his fifth season with the program. Against UCLA, he completed 64.3% of his passes for an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. And his two interceptions in that game matches his season total for 2022.
Needless to say, he and the Coastal Carolina faithful will hope for a return to form. He had a Passing Success Rate of 40.4% and had three passes over 20 yards.
The main issue for Coastal Carolina was its complete lack of a running game against the Bruins. As a team, it only managed 56 rushing yards at a 1.6 yards per attempt average, which includes McCall's four sacks. They had a 43% Rushing Success Rate as a team. The offensive line generated 2.37 Line Yards per play and a 23% Stuff Rate.
In a matchup as a 15.5-point underdog, it's hard to expect significantly better than allowing 27 points. They allowed 2.5 points per opportunity and a 35% Success Rate. They had a 15% Havoc Rate and forced on turnover.
Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick & Prediction
As of this writing, Coastal Carolina is the clear public team, while sharps are showing up for the Gamecocks. Approximately 85% of the bets have been on Coastal Carolina, but 50% of the money is in favor of Jacksonville State.
Additionally, sharp money has come in, favoring a total over 60.5, which helps explain the total moving two points from its open of 57.5.
My preferred play is to go against the sharps on the total, however. With both offenses likely to lean heavily on the running game, drives will be limited and points will be at a premium.
And with both defenses proving capable of slowing the run game, the under is the side to play.
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