The Kentucky Wildcats take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, Kentucky. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EST on ACC Network.
Louisville is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. The total is set at 47 points.
Here’s my Kentucky vs. Louisville predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 29, 2025.
Kentucky vs Louisville Prediction
- Kentucky vs. Louisville Pick: Kentucky +3 or Better
My Louisville vs. Kentucky best bet is on the Wildcats to cover in a rivalry game. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Kentucky vs Louisville Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -160 |
- Kentucky vs Louisville point spread: Louisville -3 (-110), Kentucky +3 (-110)
- Kentucky vs Louisville over/under: 47 (-110o / -110u)
- Kentucky vs Louisville moneyline: Kentucky +135, Louisville -160
Kentucky vs Louisville Preview
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview: A Roller-Coaster Season
Outside of an October from hell – a run where Kentucky lost four straight games, some by comfortable margins – the Wildcats' 2025 season has been a little better than expected.
Mark Stoops decided to cut losses with Zach Calzada and instead entrusted redshirt freshman Cutter Boley with the offense. Boley compiled over 2,000 passing yards, but threw way too many interceptions (10 on 15 turnover-worthy throws).
Kentucky has gotten a good push out of its offensive front (one that didn't appear to be SEC-level before the season started), leading to running back Seth McGowan turning in a nice year.
Kentucky slows things down, runs through McGowan, and keeps games within reason.
At least, against reasonable opponents.
That defense has held up well against the run (47th in Rushing Success Rate allowed) but gets tormented by better quarterbacks (120th in Passing Success Rate allowed). There's little by way of a pass rush, and the secondary isn't good enough to offset.
Faster-tempo teams like Tennessee blew the doors off this team, and more physical rosters like Georgia beat it into submission.
In other words, the sky is blue, and water is wet in Lexington.
But here Kentucky sits, a win away from bowl eligibility for the eighth time in nine years – a run never before accomplished in this program.
Miss that mark, and that's two straight years watching Bowl Season from the couch. Stoops' buyout has always been a hurdle for Kentucky, but it goes down to a reasonable amount this coming offseason, should the program want to cut ties.
Perhaps this Week 14 game, which comes off a 45-17 beatdown at the hands of Vanderbilt, holds more weight than any in recent Kentucky football history. It comes at rival Louisville in the 37th Governor's Cup.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview: A Late-Season Slide
Louisville had a prime opportunity to make a run at the ACC this season, but dropped three straight games to Cal, Clemson, and SMU, and is now out of the running. Talk about wind out of the sails.
The loss against Cal was shocking and bad, but a horrific Special Teams performance against Clemson topped it, and then a beatdown at the hands of SMU.
The Cards simply fell apart.
Since beating James Madison, Pitt, and Miami, it's been a sharp decline.
To make matters worse, quarterback Miller Moss missed last week’s game, and top running back Isaac Brown hit the injury report and missed every contest in the three-game skid.
Coincidence? Probably, but it's not entirely inconsequential.
Backup Keyjuan Brown missed last week, as did starting linebacker Antonio Watts.
All three are unconfirmed to play this weekend.
Essentially, when Moss and receiver Chris Bell aren't dominating games, Louisville isn't winning.
Now, it's locked into a future outside the ACC Championship Game and into a mid-tier bowl spot. With NFL prospects like Moss, Bell, Brown, and others, does moving up from the Pinstripe Bowl to the Military Bowl really make that big a difference?
Louisville's offense struggles in two critical departments: creating quality drives and finishing them. Some would say that's all of the departments.
It ranks 92nd nationally in quality drive rate and 81st in points per drive. Without Brown, there's little explosion on the ground, and Bell is the only threat in the downfield passing game.
Fortunately, Louisville fields one of the ACC's top defenses.
It allows a quality drive on just 32.2% of opposing possessions (15th) and a 33.9% conversion rate on third and fourth down (20th). The defense is opportunistic, generating lots of turnovers and sacks thanks to a nasty pass rush duo in Wesley Bailey and Clev Lubin (combined 14 sacks).
It's a talented roster throughout, but the pieces haven't come together late in the year. It's a team compiling injuries and running out of gas on the way to an underwhelming finish line.
Kentucky vs Louisville Pick, Betting Analysis
Louisville is fully eliminated from the ACC Championship Game race and plays its seventh straight game against a Power Conference opponent.
On the other side, Kentucky needs a win here to clinch bowl eligibility.
If we're talking goal-oriented performance, Kentucky has the big edge here.
The Wildcats took some money, being bet down from +6.5 to +3 on the road. The over/under also dropped a tick from 47.5 to 47.
Before a 41-14 beatdown last year – a win Louisville needed to remain alive in the ACC race, one it ultimately did not win – Kentucky won and covered five straight games against the Cardinals; two of those wins came as underdogs (2023, 2021).
Kentucky showed some fight this season against some premier competition. It took Ole Miss down to the wire (+9.5 underdogs), nearly sprung an upset on Texas (+12.5), and beat up on Florida (+3.5) and Auburn (+10.5).
Last week, Kentucky ran into a buzzsaw that was Diego Pavia at home on senior day.
Louisville has tons of red flags. Its losses have gotten progressively worse and are due to a number of factors:
- Injuries to key players
- Special teams gaffes
- Running out of gas
Moss is questionable for this week, and the market move seems to reflect that.
But the line still would indicate that Moss is playing. Either side would be wise to be patient.
Industry aggregated power ratings line Louisville right around a 3-point home favorite with Moss.
Still, the situational aspect of Kentucky needing a win to go bowling (and potentially keep Mark Stoops around) and Louisville being stuck in limbo – plus the widespread Cardinal injuries – makes me lean Kentucky as a road 'dog.
Pick: Kentucky +3 or Better
Kentucky vs Louisville Betting Trends
