College Football Odds, Picks for Louisiana vs. South Alabama
Adam Bettcher/Getty Images. Pictured: Louisiana’s Zeon Chriss.
Louisiana vs South Alabama Odds
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
South Alabama entered this season as one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt, but stumbled through an up-and-down September before catching fire in October.
The Jaguars have scored 55 points in consecutive conference games and now Louisiana will try to keep pace. The Ragin' Cajuns have discovered a good offense after inserting dual-threat freshman quarterback Zeon Chriss into the lineup and have also been scoring in bunches.
This promises to be an entertaining game between a pair of teams looking to keep pace with Troy in the Sun Belt West. So, how should we bet it?
Gone are the ground-and-pound offenses and stout defenses of the Billy Napier era.
This year’s Louisiana outfit is defined by an explosive offense and a leaky defense. After a pair of ho-hum efforts to start the year, head coach Michael Desormeaux inserted Chriss into the starting lineup and the team took off, winning three of its next four.
Chriss struggled passing last week in a tough loss to Georgia State but is a dynamic playmaker and ranks second in FBS in rushing yards per game amongst quarterbacks.
The Cajuns ground game has thrived with Chriss’ dynamic rushing. The team is 46th in offensive SP+, a good number for a Group of 5 school, and 22nd in EPA/rush. Louisiana is also top 25 in both Rushing Success Rate and rushing explosive rate.
Leading rusher Jacob Kibodi has rushed for 466 yards and averages 7.3 yards per carry. Chriss is right behind him with 446 yards on an astonishing 7.8 per tote.
The passing attack is secondary, part of the growing pains of a new quarterback.
Chriss has completed 64.7% of his passes for 906 yards (181 per game). The team keeps it easy for the youngster, ranking 49th in Success Rate while not asking him to stretch the field, ranking 89th in passing explosives.
Louisiana’s defense has struggled this year. It has been good at preventing explosives (sixth in FBS), but not much else. UL ranks 115th in Success Rate Allowed, 119th in EPA/rush and 123rd in EPA defending the pass.
The Ragin' Cajuns' stop unit is also 100th in Havoc creation and 111th in Finishing Drives.
The Jaguars entered have ignited over the past two games, posting a combined 110-10 margin in wins over ULM and Southern Mississippi.
Yes, those are two of the bottom-feeders of the league, but Kane Wommack’s outfit did exactly what it needed to do (and more) against those teams.
The offense is led by veteran quarterback Carter Bradley, who is 21st in the country with a 76.3 QBR. The team is 15th in EPA/Pass.
Wide receiver Caullin Lacy has feasted after an early season injury to running mate Devin Voisin. Lacy is third nationally with 826 receiving yards and has scored six touchdowns.
The third piece of South Alabama’s big-three offense is running back La’Damian Webb. He can be overlooked in a league loaded with stars at tailback, but his play demands your attention. He has racked up 578 yards (5.6 yards per carry) and has found the end zone 12 times. He's a big part of why South Alabama is fourth in the nation in rushing explosives.
The defense has some solid metrics, but outside of the opener against Tulane, has yet to play a ground game as good as Louisiana’s. South Alabama is squarely in the middle of the FBS for most splits — 48th in EPA/Rush and 58th in EPA/Pass.
Like Louisiana, South Alabama's defense doesn't create much Havoc and only ranks 91st in that metric.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisiana and South Alabama match up statistically:
Louisiana Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 60 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 81 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 18 | |
| Quality Drives | 68 | 30 |
South Alabama Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 47 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 108 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 111 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 90 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 9 | 113 |
| PFF Coverage | 33 | 73 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 33 | 25 |
| Middle 8 | 7 | 57 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.1 (72) | 27.0 (67) |
| Rush Rate | 57.3% (30) | 53.9% (54) |
Louisiana vs South Alabama
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game has high stakes as the loser is essentially eliminated from the conference chase, while the winner could still make a push for the conference crown.
Louisiana’s offense has been dynamic on the ground and should make hay against a South Alabama defense that hasn’t been tested for a month.
South Alabama’s offense is suddenly white-hot and will also have a good day against Louisiana's defense. The Jaguars offense is one of the best in the country at Finishing Drives, thanks Webb’s nose for the end zone.
I think South Alabama will cover, but I’m not as confident in that as I am in thinking both teams will score. I like the over where it sits at the key number of 55.
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