If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns take on the ULM Warhawks in Monroe, Louisiana. Kickoff is set for 9:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2.
Louisiana is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -410. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Louisiana vs. ULM prediction and college football pick for Thursday, November 12, 2026.
Louisiana vs ULM Prediction
- Louisiana vs. ULM Pick: Under 49.5 (Play to 48.5)
My ULM vs. Louisiana best bet is on under the point total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisiana vs ULM Odds
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -410 |
| LA-Monroe Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +320 |
- Louisiana vs ULM point spread: Louisiana -10.5 (-110), LA-Monroe +10.5 (-110)
- Louisiana vs ULM over/under: 49.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Louisiana vs ULM moneyline: Louisiana -410, LA-Monroe +320
Louisiana vs ULM College Football Preview
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Betting Preview: Pack Your Lunch
Louisiana sure has a program identity.
Between 6-7 seasons, the Ragin' Cajuns win 9-plus games, and between those 9-plus-win seasons, they go 6-7.
If you line Louisiana up as an underdog in conference play, it'll probably be more competitive than you think, but never so competitive that you're led to believe this team is actually good.
If you asked any non-Louisiana fan to list their 6-3 or better teams in college football, that person might never arrive at this team. And yet, Louisiana is 6-3 with an exceptionally reasonable path to 9-3. The remaining schedule consists of ULM (-10.5), Coastal Carolina (projects -14), and Georgia State (projects -6).
The concern is that this team has pieced together remarkably few complete games and both sides of the ball are wildly inconsistent. In wins over UAB, Arkansas State, and South Alabama (the latter two teams fall outside the top 115 in points per drive), Louisiana averaged 24 points per game — albeit in three three-point wins. But the offense has scored 30-plus points in all three losses (USC, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss).
Certainly an odd profile.
The entire offense is built around Lunch Winfield, as he leads the team in passing, rushing, and touchdowns. So when Winfield doesn't go, neither does the offense. That's a design flaw rather than a feature that could nip this team in one of the three games it projects to be favored in down the stretch.
ULM Warhawks Betting Preview: Mixed Signals
Don't look now: the ULM Warhawks have won two of their past three games, both on the road and both as a two-touchdown underdog.
ULM also did so while scoring four combined touchdowns in those games via offense and one via a fumble recovery as time expired to beat Troy. ULM dragged both Troy and Arkansas State into the mud and beat them in sloppy rock fights, with both games coming on the road.
The offense is a train wreck. After a 52-35 shootout with South Alabama to open Sun Belt play, ULM has averaged 13.8 points per game on offense over its past four games, including a shutout at home by Louisiana Tech.
Under Aidan Armenta (who threw for less than 150 yards in three of those four games), ULM's offense ranks 120th nationally in Yards Per Play and 125th in touchdown rate (19.6%). That unit doesn't turn the ball over much, but it doesn't generate explosives. Really, it doesn't do much of anything.Â
There are too many cooks in the kitchen: six different ball carriers have over 140 yards, but only one has over 215 in backup quarterback Austin Carslile (414). Armenta leads the charge with four rushing touchdowns.
ULM wants to commit to a run-heavy mentality, but it can't. Only two teams (Charlotte, NIU) have spent more time trailing this season, which has forced ULM to throw more with Armenta. But in that very slim margin where ULM has held a lead, it runs on over 70% of snaps.
The defense gives up too many explosive plays, ranking 122nd nationally in EPA Per Play allowed, but 77th in Success Rate allowed — although it's improved since the Week 6 bye.
Louisiana vs ULM Pick, Betting Analysis
Louisiana is a 10.5-point favorite on the road, down from its high-water mark of -12 earlier this week. Power ratings make this closer to Louisiana -20, but given that the Cajuns haven't been able to pull away from most opponents and will be playing this one on the road, the market disagrees.
Instead, I'm looking to capitalize on two teams that run middling tempos and haven't shown much offensive juice.
Louisiana runs a new play every 29.2 seconds (125th) while ULM snaps the ball every 27.1 seconds (88th). We have two offenses that want to keep the ball on the ground and in the quarterback's hands, but struggle to execute.
When Louisiana gets a lead, it gets ultra conservative. It's -0.13 EPA per play while ahead, ranks 130th nationally, and Michael Desormeaux falls into the trap of trying to milk the clock with a lead — it's what's led to results like 28-26 over South Alabama (-7.5) and 23-20 over Arkansas State (-5). That also led to a choked lead against Southern Miss, who snagged a 35-31 victory with under a minute left.
I don't believe ULM will move the ball effectively on Thursday. It hasn't played well at home (home-field advantage isn't very relevant here), and both teams love to play conservatively.
ULM will look to drag Louisiana down into the mud, and Louisiana is very susceptible to that thanks to its conservative approach while leading and super-slow tempo.
Pick: Under 49.5 (Play to 48.5)
