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Thursday. Night. Football.
Thursday's NFL game between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants isn't the only action on the gridiron tonight. In fact, we have two college football games on the docket as well.
Our staff broke down both games — USF vs. Memphis in the American Conference and ULM vs. Louisiana in the Sun Belt — and came through with a pick for each.
With so much action to get to, let's dive into their Thursday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for November 12.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Thursday College Football Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
USF vs. Memphis Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with Memphis listed as a 6.5-point favorite, and USF has taken a decent amount of money in the market this week. The Tigers are now 3.5-point favorites as of writing, with a total of 50.5. I like Memphis in this game.
I'm not convinced South Florida’s offense can keep up with Memphis. The Bulls went right down the field and scored on their opening possession against ECU last week, but the next 10 possessions produced just 10 total points.
The offense regularly struggles to string together successful drives, with many possessions of five or fewer plays ending in punts.
The Bulls have gotten away with the offense not producing because their opponents’ offenses have been weak, but the lack of consistency is concerning here.
Memphis has a strong rushing attack that consistently stresses opponents, and the play-action game should create favorable passing opportunities.
The Tigers have explosive playmakers at the skill positions, and quarterback Marcus Stokes is throwing the ball really well right now.
The scheduling spot is great for Memphis, which comes off its bye week, while USF is playing its third game in the last 12 days.
I expect the Tigers to come out strong after the week off and for the defensive line to show up and create pressure against a USF offense that already struggles to move the ball.
Lay the short number with the road favorite here.
Pick: Memphis -3.5
| |
ULM vs. Louisiana Pick
By RoadToCFB
Louisiana is a 10.5-point favorite on the road, down from its high-water mark of -12 earlier this week.
Power ratings make this closer to Louisiana -20, but given that the Ragin' Cajuns haven't been able to pull away from most opponents and will be playing this one on the road, the market disagrees.
Instead, I'm looking to capitalize on two teams that run middling tempos and haven't shown much offensive juice.
Louisiana runs a new play every 29.2 seconds (125th), while ULM snaps the ball every 27.1 seconds (88th). We have two offenses that want to keep the ball on the ground and in the quarterback's hands, but struggle to execute.
When Louisiana gets a lead, it gets ultra conservative. It's -0.13 EPA per play while ahead, ranks 130th nationally, and head coach Michael Desormeaux falls into the trap of trying to milk the clock with a lead.
That has led to results like 28-26 over South Alabama (-7.5) and 23-20 over Arkansas State (-5). That also led to a choked lead against Southern Miss, which snagged a 35-31 victory with under a minute left.
I don't believe ULM will move the ball effectively on Thursday. It hasn't played well at home (home-field advantage isn't very relevant here), and both teams love to play conservatively.
ULM will look to drag Louisiana down into the mud, and Louisiana is very susceptible to that thanks to its conservative approach while leading and super-slow tempo.
Pick: Under 49.5 (Play to 48.5)
