Louisville vs Miami Pick, Prediction: How to Bet ACC Clash
Lauren Sopourn/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami’s Xavier Restrepo.
- The Louisville Cardinals and Miami Hurricanes meet in an ACC college football clash on Saturday.
- Miami enters as a -1 favorite, as the over/under sits at 46.5.
- Read our full Louisville vs Miami betting preview, along with updated odds and a pick, below.
Louisville vs Miami Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
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In Hard Rock Stadium, the Miami Hurricanes host the 10th-ranked Louisville Cardinals in an ACC matchup on Saturday.
Louisville is red-hot, sitting second in the ACC with a 9-1 record and riding a three-game winning streak.
The Hurricanes are having a pretty average season and are now losers of two straight. Most recently, they lost to the ACC leaders in Florida State, 27-20.
Where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Let's dive into the Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes odds and find a betting pick for Saturday's college football game.
Senior Jack Plummer is having a solid season, amassing over 2,400 yards at a 65% completion clip with 16 touchdowns. He can be a little erratic, given he has nine interceptions.
Regardless, Plummer’s been efficient for the most part. He's part of why the Cardinals rank 17th nationally in Pass Success Rate, 31st in Pass Explosiveness and 29th in Pass PPA.
Jamari Thrash is Plummer’s favorite target, as he’s brought in 30 more receptions than Chris Bell, the second-leading receiver on the team. Thrash averages 15 yards per reception and has six touchdowns.
However, Both Bell and Ahmari Huggins-Bruce are also solid contributors, averaging 16 and 17.3 yards per reception, respectively.
The run game is another strength for Louisville, as the Cardinals rank 22nd in Rush Success Rate, even though they're not very explosive. Both Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo each average at least 6.5 yards per carry, but Jordan has been the star.
Defensively, this team is solid, ranking 12th in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 14th in Pass Success Rate Allowed.
Louisville has two prominent stars on the defense in Ashton Gillotte and Devin Neal. Gillotte leads the team in sacks (10) and tackles for loss (13). Neal, meanwhile, has been a force in the secondary, notching four interceptions, which is tied for third nationally.
Last week was humbling for quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Emory Williams took over at quarterback last week, but after suffering a season-ending injury, Van Dyke will be back under center against Louisville.
For the most part, Van Dyke is having a good year. He's completing 66% of his passes, but turnovers continue to bite him, as he's thrown 12 picks.
Even though Van Dyke is prone to interceptions, the passing game has done well. Miami ranks 34th nationally in Pass Success Rate and 27th in Pass PPA.
Van Dyke's favorite targets are Jacolby George, Xavier Restrepo and Colbie Young. It feels like he almost throws exclusively at those three. George makes the most out of his opportunities, averaging 15.5 yards per reception with seven touchdowns.
Miami has a solid running committee, ranking 46th in Rush Success Rate. Henry Parrish Jr., Don Cheney Jr., Mark Fletcher Jr. and Ajay Allen have all received a boatload of volume. Parrish has been the most efficient runner on the team, averaging six yards per carry, but both Cheney and Fletcher are quality backs as well.
The defensive side of the ball has been pretty solid. The Hurricanes are one of the better run-stoppers in the nation, ranking 20th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and 15th in PPA per Rush allowed.
Against the pass, the Hurricanes rank 22nd nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed and 34th in PPA per Pass Allowed.
Linebacker Francisco Mauigoa and defensive lineman Rueben Bain are critical to both the pass rush and the rush stop. Mauigoa leads the team in tackles for loss (15) and is tied with Bain for sacks (6.5).
In the secondary, safety Kamren Kinchens is a huge part of this team. He's notched three interceptions on the year and, knowing Plummer, we might see another on Saturday.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Miami match up statistically:
Louisville Offense vs. Miami Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 5 | |
| Pass Success | 18 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 45 | 20 | |
| Finishing Drives | 65 | 108 | |
| Quality Drives | 16 | 50 |
Miami Offense vs. Louisville Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 48 | 16 | |
| Havoc | 19 | 47 | |
| Finishing Drives | 67 | 60 | |
| Quality Drives | 35 | 6 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 29 | 26 |
| PFF Coverage | 52 | 68 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 65 | 3 |
| Middle 8 | 75 | 20 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.3 (108) | 28.4 (95) |
| Rush Rate | 57.7% (33) | 50.9% (82) |
Louisville vs Miami
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite what the standings say, this looks like a very even game.
Both teams play with similar pace and structure, and their quarterbacks play the same stylistically. The only difference is Miami runs the ball more.
Louisville is very sound defensively. Before letting up 21 points in the third quarter last week, the Cardinals gave up only six points in 10 quarters.
Similarly, Miami has been reasonably solid at limiting opponents. It allows just 20.7 points per game on average. Pair that with Louisville’s defensive strengths, and this might be a low-scoring game.
It’ll be interesting to see how these teams match up because it looks like it’ll be a tight one on paper.
However, I’ll be picking the under for this battle, as I think we'll see a defensive-minded battle.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-115)
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