2024 CFP National Championship: Michigan vs. Washington | Our College Football Staff’s Spread & Over/Under Picks (Monday, Jan. 8)

By Dan Keegan

The College Football Playoff National Championship takes place Monday night, with all the usual pomp, circumstance and off-field storylines associated with games of such magnitude.

Is this Jim Harbaugh’s last game in college, and if so, will he break through and win his first career title as a head coach? Will Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb earn a championship as they ascend to the sport’s zenith? Will Michigan’s self-manufactured “adversity” give it an edge, or will the brilliant quarterbacking of Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. carry the day?

There are plenty of fun on-field storylines and matchups to break down, too, as the nation gathers around to watch — and bet on — college football for one final time until August.

If the Huskies emerge victorious, they will do so with one of the least imposing defenses to win a title in a half-century. They check in at 44th in defensive SP+; you have to go back until 1950 to find a title-winning defense outside of the top 30 (Oklahoma).

But the Washington unit is timely with takeaways and stops at the right moment, a classic “bend but don’t break” outfit. Can Michigan’s offense, led by J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum, finally find its break point?

The other side of the ball is a thrilling matchup. Michigan’s elite defense will face the best passing offense it's had to guard all season, and Washington will stare down its toughest defensive challenge of the season.

Can Michigan slow down Washington’s passing attack, which ranks third in EPA/Pass? The recipe of a great quarterback and a batch of NFL receivers is one we have seen recent teams ride to championship glory.

Michigan slowed Alabama last week with a dominant pass rush, sacking Jalen Milroe six times. But the same success is no guarantee against Washington; in the semifinal nightcap, Penix took zero sacks and zero hits while escaping Texas’s ferocious pass rush all game.

This matchup is full of narratives and should be an entertaining way to end our season.

With so much on the line, we polled our staff of 13 college football experts to find a consensus in the spread and total markets, as well as other ways to bet the game. Let’s get into our picks.

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By Patrick Strollo

It’s no surprise that our staff is almost evenly split on the biggest college football game of the year. As a result of being the grand finale, this will be one of the most-bet games of the year, and oddsmakers have hung a line that appears to be very efficient.

The line for this game opened at 4.5 and has held steady through the week. Now, perhaps there will be some movement as we get closer to kickoff, but the market appears to have priced the merits of both teams very well.

There's a case to be made for both teams, and I will lay a thesis out for both programs. After all, there's a strong angle for both sides of the bet.

For Michigan, it’s going to be all about the defense, especially the pass rush.

In the semifinal game against Alabama, the Wolverines had six sacks for 49 yards. The front seven was very disruptive and stopped Alabama in overtime when it mattered most.

The Michigan defense is one of the best in the nation in creating Havoc. The Wolverines rank seventh in the nation in the metric, and getting to Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will be necessary.

Should they not get to Penix, the Wolverines can look to their elite secondary that ranks second in the nation in passing defense, giving up just 150.0 yards per game.

The case for Washington is going to come down to turning this game into a shootout. Similar to the way Michigan lost in the semifinal to TCU last year, the Huskies will need Penix to air it out early and often while tiring out the Wolverines' front seven in the process.

If there's any team that can out-pass this Michigan defense, it’s the Penix-led Huskies. They're the top passing offense in the nation, averaging 350.0 passing yards per game.

Protection has been a strong suit of the Huskies as well, as they enter the game giving up less than one sack per game and didn’t allow a single sack against Texas in the Sugar Bowl.

As you look to bet this game and find your respective angle, the debate should center around whether Michigan can keep its excellent defense off the field through offensive clock control or if Washington can turn this into a tempo game, forcing Michigan to keep up with its elite passing game.

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By John Feltman

It appears our Action Network staff is also about evenly split on the total of this game. I think it’s fair considering you can make a reasonable case for both angles.

Considering this number is now 56.5, I tend to lean toward the under. I think Michigan is going to pound the rock all night, and it should take advantage of a weak Washington defensive line.

If the Wolverines successfully run the ball effectively throughout this game, I expect a ton of methodical drives from their offense. With that being said, a lot of time should be churning off the clock.

However, I can understand why half of our staff went with the over in this poll. If Michael Penix Jr. has the night he had against the Longhorns, this game is going to fly over.

Let’s face it — although the Wolverines have better cornerbacks than the Longhorns, this is an elite wide receiver trio of  the sort they have yet to face this season. They did a very solid job against Ohio State’s WR core, but the Buckeyes also had Kyle McCord throwing the passes, and he's not nearly as talented as Penix.

If these UM cornerbacks get in trouble, I think the Huskies will be able to score in bunches.

The Wolverines' pass rush should be up for the task against a strong Huskies offensive line, but we’ll be able to tell from the jump if they’re going to face some issues.

I expect this game to easily stay under if Michigan controls the clock with its ground game. If Penix’s offensive line gives him plenty of time to cook in the pocket, then we could be in for an uptempo shootout.