2024 National Championship Best Bets & Odds: Our Staff’s Picks for Michigan vs Washington Title Game
Design by Matt Roembke/Action Network.
2024 National Championship Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The day we've been waiting for since last January is finally here. The 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship is upon us.
It's been an incredible season thus far. From Michigan's sign-stealing scandal and subsequent triumphs to Washington making the national title game in the final year of the Pac-12 as we know it, there have been plenty of fun storylines along the way.
But now, it's time to crown a champion.
Our staff broke down Monday's National Championship and came through with six best bets — including three picks on the same side of the spread.
Check out all six best bets for Washington vs. Michigan below, and let's make our way to Green Dot City one final time this season.
Washington vs. Michigan
By John Feltman
In a game where I’ve thought about a ton of different scenarios or outcomes, Michigan has to be the side you take.
I admire what Kalen DeBoer has done with this Washington program, and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has had a spectacular season, but their magical run will come to an end Monday evening.
Maybe it’s poetic that Jim Harbaugh is the last man standing after all of the adversity and allegations he’s dealt with this season. Or, you could argue this would be a storybook ending for the existence of the Pac-12 Conference.
But that’s enough of the sappy storylines — let’s talk about why you should back Michigan.
To me, this is not only a market play, but there's one true advantage that I think will have huge implications for the outcome of this contest. Michigan’s ability to run the ball against this vulnerable Washington defensive front will determine the winner.
We all know that this is the Wolverines' bread and butter, and this is the one glaring weakness that the Huskies have had on the defensive side of the ball all season.
I expect the Wolverines to play smash-mouth football, absolutely dominate the time of possession and win the battle up front. I have a feeling their offensive game plan heading in will feature playing keep-away from the Huskies.
If the Wolverines can’t control the clock and dominate on the ground, this will open up the window of opportunity for Penix and this offense. But there are some aspects of this Wolverines defense that many are not talking about.
Last week, many expected the Longhorns cornerbacks to struggle against the elite wide receiver trio of Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja'Lynn Polk. Penix shredded them all evening long, but this time around, he'll be facing a much more reputable secondary.
The Wolverines have not been tested in their secondary that often this season, but when they have, they’ve been up to the task. Notably, they contained Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Ohio State WRs masterfully in their matchup in late November.
If the Wolverines continue to bring pressure and their cornerbacks hold up on the outside, this could be a long night for the Huskies.
To cap this all off, the way this line has stalled since opening is another massive reason I’m riding with Michigan.
Besides a few of our great Action Network experts, I’ve heard nothing but love for this Washington team from the general public. This reminds me a bit of last year’s championship game when TCU was the public darling underdog heading into the game against Georgia.
Of course, I’m not comparing Washington to TCU or Michigan to Georgia, I think it’s unfair to say those teams are alike in any fashion. But the comparison I'm making is how the market is reacting to the boatload of Washington money flowing in.
This line opened Michigan -4.5 at the majority of books, and as I sit here on Saturday afternoon, I still see the same number despite a massive amount of bets on the Huskies. Something seems off, and I’m not really surprised the general population is running to the window to back Washington at the current point spread.
The Huskies have won back-to-back games where they were 9.5- and 3.5-point dogs and looked light years better than their opponents. I’m not one to outsmart the books, but I think they have a really strong feeling about what the outcome of this game is going to be.
With Michigan's trench and dominant run game, as well as the overview of the market, this is a smash play on the Wolverines all day.
Pick: Michigan -4.5 (Play to -5)
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By Cody Goggin
I had similar thoughts about the Sugar Bowl matchup and was proven to be incorrect, but I think Michigan’s defense may be too much for Washington to handle.
In last week’s matchup, I had the belief that Texas’ advantage in the trenches would overpower Washington’s offensive line. This did happen to an extent in the rushing game, as Washington managed just 2.5 yards per carry from their running backs in this game and only 71 non-Penix rushing yards overall.
Unfortunately, Texas’ secondary couldn't hold up on the back end. There were signs of this that I had ignored, thinking that the Texas front seven would hold up better. Texas ranked only 62nd in PFF coverage grade during the regular season and came in at 86th in passing explosiveness allowed.
Michigan’s defense doesn’t have these same flaws, sitting 42nd in passing explosiveness allowed and first in PFF coverage grade.
So, while Michigan has the size advantage up front that it should be able to take advantage of, I also think that it has a better chance of slowing down this Huskies’ tremendous passing attack.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan should be able to bulldoze its way through the Washington front. Michigan runs at the 14th-highest rate in the country and will keep attacking the Huskies in that way.
Washington ranks 129th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 125th in Rushing PPA Allowed. Texas’ backs went for 6.6 yards per carry against this defense, and I think that the Wolverines may be able to find similar success while also running the ball much more frequently than Texas did (just 19 RB attempts).
Washington’s offense is incredible, and I find myself rooting for its story in the last year of the Pac-12, but Michigan’s advantage in the trenches with an equally strong secondary may be enough to stop the storybook ending for the Huskies.
If Michigan can get out to a reasonable lead, it will be able to just salt this away with its stout running game, covering the 4.5-point spread in the process.
Pick: Michigan -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
I'm on Michigan in this game, and as a result, made my largest bet of the season on the Wolverines. I think the combination of their elite defense and heavy run game is going to be too much for Washington to overcome.
On offense, Michigan is a run-first team. It runs on 60.5% of snaps and has been very successful in keeping the ball on the ground this season.
Running back Blake Corum has been a workhorse for the Wolverines, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He's also accompanied by Donovan Edwards and dual-threat quarterback J.J. McCarthy in the backfield.
While Corum has been excellent, he has been assisted by an excellent offensive line. The Wolverines enter the game ranked 12th in the nation in run blocking, per PFF. The Michigan offensive line also has a very favorable matchup against a Washington run defense that ranks 72nd nationally.
Given the advantage up front, I don’t think the Wolverines will have any problem running the ball down Washington's throat, but if they do, the passing game is always an option and will serve as a change of tempo for the game plan.
Last week against Alabama, Michigan was held to a season-low 130 rushing yards but could still rely on McCarthy in the passing game. McCarthy is an excellent passer, just one who hasn't been called on as much as his opponent.
McCarthy boasts an excellent completion percentage of 73.4% and has tossed 22 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Should Michigan meet resistance in the run game, I feel confident that McCarthy can take over if necessary.
The Michigan offense is good and has all the pieces, but the key to my analysis is the defense. The Wolverine defense is the best in the nation, ranking first nationally in scoring defense (10.2 PPG) and total defense (243.1 YPG), second nationally in passing defense (150.0 YPG) and ninth in the nation in rushing defense (93.1 YPG).
They will be facing the best passing offense in the nation in the Penix-led Huskies, but I just think this is a very tough matchup for Washington. The front seven for the Wolverines is one of the best in the country, and I think they're going to cause too much Havoc for Washington to overcome.
As we enter this last game of the season, I feel comfortable relying heavily on my models given the sample size we have now. All six of my spread models have Michigan covering four and a hook.
It may be cliché but defense wins championships, and I think that's how this game will play out.
Pick: Michigan -4.5 (Play to -5)
So far this season, I have won about eight units backing the Huskies, and we're going back to the well one more time.
Take a look at this excerpt from my Pac-12 preview:
“Look for the Huskies' high-flying offense to carry them through this schedule. Not only were the Huskies a top-five team in Success Rate, but they also finished second in the country in Points per Ppportunity and first in Havoc.
Most of the offense returns, so expect this team to pick up right where it left off. There are going to be some high-scoring games out West this season.”
While I didn’t back the Huskies all the way, their offense has not disappointed. Michael Penix Jr. has led the Huskies to an offense that's fourth in Success Rate, 10th in Havoc Allowed and 14th in Points per Opportunity.
Michigan has a great defense, but it just squeaked by an Alabama team that couldn’t close the game out or snap the ball correctly. The Wolverines offense was ineffective for most of the game before coming alive exactly when it had to.
However, the Huskies — and this is going to sound odd — are much more experienced and polished than the Crimson Tide. If Washington goes up by two scores, Michigan will not be able to come back.
If the Wolverines can keep the ball on the ground, they can keep it close. Blake Corum should have success against this Washington front. However, I think Washington will make the Wolverines throw earlier than they want to.
The Huskies have been dominant all year, and I expect it to continue on Monday. Give me Washington to usher the Pac-12 out with a National Championship.
Pick: Washington ML +160 (Play to +150)
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By Greg Liodice
The National Championship will most likely play to the strengths of both teams. Washington loves to throw the football, while Michigan prides itself on pounding the rock.
Running back Blake Corum was a problem all season and is an automatic threat when carrying in the red zone. He set a Michigan all-time record in rushing touchdowns with 25 this season and is probably licking his chops knowing he's going to face a Washington defense that has struggled against the run.
The Huskies allowed the sixth-most rushing touchdowns in the FBS this year and were ranked 129th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.
Michigan, meanwhile, will have its hands full against a team that loves to air it out. While the Wolverines had a relatively easy task against an Alabama offensive line that struggled to contain them, Washington’s O-line is much more efficient.
The 2023 Joe Moore Award-winning line (best offensive line in the country) should give quarterback Michael Penix Jr. plenty of time to throw the football to his three-headed monster receiving corps in Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan.
Michigan was remarkable against the pass, ranking second in explosiveness allowed and 17th in Success Rate, but it had an easier schedule compared to its counterparts. It leads me to believe that it could have a tougher time stopping that pass than it did all year.
Because I can see both teams playing to their strengths, I anticipate this game going over the total of 56.5.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Play to 60)
By Cody Goggin
If you've watched Michigan’s offense at all this year — or any other year, for that matter — you know it wants to run the ball down its opponent's throat. The Wolverines have run the ball this season 59% of the time, good for the 14th-highest rate in the country.
This isn’t an overly explosive rushing attack, ranking just 117th in explosiveness and 45th in Success Rate, but Michigan will want to keep going back to its all-time leader in rushing touchdowns, Blake Corum, all game long.
Rushing defense is not Washington’s strength in the slightest. The Huskies rank 129th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 125th in Rushing PPA Allowed. They sit 72nd in PFF rushing grade and 104th in PFF tackling grade this season.
Michigan will have the size advantage in the trenches and should be able to repeatedly pound the ball between the tackles, slowly moving the chains and wearing down the Huskies defense.
As our own Collin Wilson pointed out on this week’s "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Blake Corum has had all but three of Michigan’s red-zone rushing attempts in its last five contests. Additionally, the Wolverines rank seventh in the country in red-zone rushing touchdowns, while Washington comes in at 112th in red-zone rushing touchdowns allowed.
This all sets up well for Corum to have a big game, and the odds of him scoring a touchdown are great. I actually like taking Corum to score two touchdowns, adding to his already impressive resume.
I would take Corum to score twice down to +115.
Pick: Blake Corum to Score 2+ TDs (Play to +115)
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