NCAAF Odds, Picks for Mississippi State vs. South Carolina

South Carolina and Mississippi State meet in Columbia, with both teams searching for a rebound performance following double-digit losses to SEC behemoths.

Both offensive coordinators face questions about their unit. The Gamecocks haven't kept Spencer Rattler upright, while the Bulldogs have taken a step in the wrong direction after abandoning the Air Raid in the offseason.

Whichever offense better hides its flaws will win this one.

So, will Rattler continue his hot start to the season? Or will the Bulldogs' pass rush be too much as Mississippi State’s offense runs its way to a win?

There probably hasn’t been a more significant change in offensive identity than the one happening in Starkville. The Bulldogs have done a complete 180 from the days of Mike Leach’s Air Raid.

Since Leach took over as head coach for Mississippi State in 2020, the Bulldogs led the nation in pass attempts per game in each of those three seasons. Mississippi State ran on just over 30% of its plays last season.

Enter Week 4 of 2023 under Zach Arnett and offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay, and suddenly, the Bulldogs are forcing a square peg in a round hole, becoming a run-centric team despite a roster built to thrive in the Air Raid.

Mississippi State is currently 109th in the country with 25.0 pass attempts per game, while its total offense ranks last in the SEC (344.3 yards per game) and its scoring sits 11th (31.0). The Bulldogs are now running the ball 56.9% of the time.

And despite the stubbornness to change back to what Mississippi State was known for and most successful at, the new Bulldogs offense hasn’t been that good. Mississippi State ranks 74th and 124th, respectively, in Rushing and Passing Success Rate, and it only mustered 201 total yards of offense last week against LSU, including just seven net yards on the first 16 plays.

South Carolina’s defense is in the bottom quadrant of the SEC, so the Bulldogs offense should be able to find some success. But it doesn't feel like there is a much lower ceiling under Barbay's offensive scheme.

The Bulldogs' defense shouldn't get a pass, either. LSU's Jayden Daniels set a program record for completion percentage (88.2%) last week against Mississippi State on 30-of-34 passing. Spencer Rattler is a better passer than Daniels and could be primed for a big day.

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If there’s been a spot to South Carolina’s 1-2 start to the season, it’s how well Rattler has played despite facing relentless pressure.

Only one Power 5 team has allowed more than the 13 sacks the Gamecocks have allowed through three games, as South Carolina continues to struggle with its offensive line. The Gamecocks offense ranks 127th in Havoc allowed, negatively impacting the ground game, where they rank 107th and 114th in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards, respectively.

Between picking himself off the turf, Rattler has been off to his most consistent start to date. The fifth-year senior is sixth in the country in passing yards, averaging 318.0 per game. He even led South Carolina in rushing in its Week 3 loss at Georgia.

Xavier Legette has emerged as Rattler’s go-to receiver and is one of six receivers in the FBS to average more than 120 yards receiving per game.

Rattler has been forced to throw the ball so much because he typically finds himself in a high-scoring affair thanks to South Carolina’s less-than-stellar defense.

The Gamecocks are the only defense in the SEC allowing more than 400 yards of offense per game, and they currently rank 11th in the conference in scoring (31.0 points allowed per game).

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Mississippi State and South Carolina match up statistically:

Mississippi State Offense vs. South Carolina Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	74	98
Line Yards	45	68
Pass Success	124	113
Havoc	48	133
Finishing Drives	52	38
Quality Drives	49	74

South Carolina Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	107	92
Line Yards	114	93
Pass Success	63	119
Havoc	127	34
Finishing Drives	101	131
Quality Drives	81	87

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	27	47
PFF Coverage	20	75
Special Teams SP+	107	11
Middle 8	37	86
Seconds per Play	27.6 (80)	24.0 (22)
Rush Rate	56.9% (46)	42.0% (130)

Rattler will likely still face pressure against a Bulldogs defense that ranks 34th in Havoc, but Mississippi State has yet to turn that pressure into sacks (only six on the season).

South Carolina’s passing game should thrive in its home stadium. The Bulldogs pass defense is 117th in the country, allowing 277.3 yards per game, and they allowed 340 and 367 yards passing in their two most recent matchups with Arizona and LSU.

Even more relevant is South Carolina's Explosive pass plays. The Gamecocks have the eighth most passing plays of at least 20 yards in length (17).

That's something the Bulldogs's defense has been susceptible to. Mississippi State has allowed 11 pass plays of such length, only the 90th-best mark in the FBS.

Mississippi State will have more success on offense than last week against LSU, but until it lets Will Rogers throw the ball more, the Bulldogs ground game won't keep pace with the Gamecocks offense.