Navy vs. Tulsa Odds, Picks: College Football Betting Preview
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Shamari Brooks.
- Tulsa and Navy face off in Oklahoma in a game between two AAC teams heading in different directions.
- The Golden Hurricane have won two games in a row while the Midshipmen are on a three-game losing streak.
- Kody Malstrom previews this college football matchup and offers up his best bet.
Navy vs. Tulsa Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -11.5 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -470 |
Good thing the Navy defends the seas because it sure can't defend on land — more specifically, its football team.
While you boo my joke in your head while you read that, just look at how Navy has been doing so far this season. While you still boo me in your head, at least you can agree with me.
Credit where credit is due, the Midshipmen had the world on the edge of their seats as they came within a possession of beating No. 2 Cincinnati last week.
Tulsa, meanwhile, has found a little more success. Standing at 3-4, it has a chance to get back to .500 as a sizeable favorite over the Midshipmen this Friday. Three of the Golden Hurricane's losses are respectable, as they have dropped games against Oklahoma State, Ohio State, and Houston.
In a game that will showcase two completely different styles of offense, Navy and Tulsa will be a fun under-the-radar matchup to watch for the national audience.
Navy Midshipmen
Navy Offense
If it ain't broke, don't go out of your way to fix it. That's the story of the Navy offense that boasts one of the heaviest rush rates in the nation. At an 86.2% clip, the Midshipmen force opponents to stack the box while still running it down their throat.
The Midshipmen run the ball moderately well, ranking near the middle of the nation at 55th. They would prefer to run the ball and the clock out for the full length of the field than dare attempt to pass. Navy is last, or near last, in every advanced passing metric.
Four different Midshipmen backs average more than four yards per carry with over 50 rushing attempts. They have multiple weapons in the backfield that will look to wear down any opposing defenses.
They will look to exploit a tired defense once they get past the 40 and put up points on the board.
Navy Defense
For what I would imagine requires a lot of discipline, the defense sure isn't disciplined. Navy's secondary constantly gets burned game in and game out, as the unit ranks near the bottom nationally in every defensive passing metric.
The Midshipmen do a decent job of stopping the push, owning a Def. Line Yards ranking of 21st. They will need to keep this up and create more Havoc to give the secondary a much-needed break.
Points are well-earned against the defense, as a whole, as it does a great job limiting the big play. This is in large part due to its excellent tackling ability. Navy boasts a PFF Tackling rating of 56th.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Tulsa Offense
Like I said in the introduction, this matchup features two completely different styles of offense. No one on Navy has thrown for over 300 yards. Tulsa quarterback Davis Brin has thrown for 1,915 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
While the Tulsa passing game isn't the most efficient, Navy will still have its hands full, as it's one of the worst passing defenses in the nation.
With low rankings of 98th in Pass Success and 81st in pass blocking, Tulsa will lean on the big play, as it ranks 21st — an area in which Navy is respectable in defending.
If Tulsa wants to cover a double-digit spread, it will need to take care of the ball. This is something it's average at, ranking 63rd in Havoc Allowed. If it can limit the rush that Navy brings, Tulsa will have plenty of opportunities to move the ball down the field with ease.
Tulsa Defense
It may be easier said than done, but the plan for any defense going against Navy is to stop the run. Navy runs and runs often. It attacks with efficiency and power. Tulsa will need to be prepared to get physical all game.
The Navy Rush Success and Tulsa Def. Rush Success are dead even in ranking. Both sitting 55th on each side of the ball, the game may very well come down to which side breaks first. The advantage goes to Tulsa, as it has a much better ranking in Def. Line Yards.
If Tulsa wants to cover the spread, they will need as many opportunities as they can on the offensive end. They will need to take advantage of their Havoc to limit as many Navy drives as possible. Navy will bleed the clock with their run game, something Tulsa can not afford with limited possessions.
Navy vs. Tulsa Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and Tulsa match up statistically:
Navy Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 55 |  |
| Line Yards | 91 | 54 | |
| Pass Success | 129 | 85 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 130 | 26 | |
| Big Play | 128 | 122 | |
| Havoc | 116 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 79 | 92 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Tulsa Offense vs. Navy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 115 | 74 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 112 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 81 | 127 | |
| Big Play | 21 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 97 | |
| Finishing Drives | 85 | 97 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 56 | 36 |
| Coverage | 121 | 95 |
| Middle 8 | 109 | 24 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 115 | 68 |
| Plays per Minute | 122 | 39 |
| Rush Rate | 86.2% (3) | 53.8% (72) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Navy vs. Tulsa Betting Pick
In a battle of two completely different styles of offense, I am going to lay the points with the more diverse one.
It won't be easy. Tulsa will need to maximize all of its possessions to avoid running out of time against the stalling Navy run game.
I believe the Golden Hurricane will succeed. Navy's secondary has been getting torched all season, something that will happen again against Tulsa. Brin will have plenty of time in the pocket to make the right read and move the ball down the field.
On the defensive end, Tulsa will need to rely on Havoc to flip the field or force three-and-outs. It's not going to be easy, as Navy's efficient on the ground, but it's doable nonetheless.
I grabbed Tulsa for a small bet on the opener at -9.5. I wouldn't play this anything more than the football number of -10. Look to grab this live and hope Tulsa's defense can get Navy's offense off the field.
Pick: Tulsa -9.5 (Play to -10)
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