Navy vs. Memphis Betting Odds & Predictions: Bank on a Midshipmen Upset?

Navy vs. Memphis Betting Odds & Predictions: Bank on a Midshipmen Upset? article feature image
Credit:

Justin Ford, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrick Taylor Jr.

Navy at Memphis Odds & Predictions

  • Navy Spread: +11
  • Memphis Spread: -11
  • Navy Moneyline  +330
  • Memphis Moneyline: -440
  • Over/Under: 54
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: Memphis, Tenn.

All odds above as of Friday at 6 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Navy at Memphis Betting Market

If this game was taking place on Saturday afternoon it may get lost a bit in the betting shuffle, but since it’s the only college football game on Thursday night it’s attracting some decent action.

Early money came in on the Midshipmen and knocked them down to +10.5 after they hit as high as +12 in some spots on Monday. Since then, this line has been pinging back and forth between 10.5 and 11. Navy has certainly been the more popular side, attracting 60% of the bets.

According to our consensus odds, this total opened at 56.5, and despite a majority of the bets hitting the over, it has come down to 54 at most shops.

For up-to-date betting odds and percentages, check out Sports Insights.

Stuckey: Service Academies Perform Well as Double-Digit Dogs

I rarely ever fade service academies as underdogs. And when I do, it usually backfires.

Top three teams to back as an underdog since 2005:

  • Temple
  • Kansas State
  • Navy

Navy is 15-8-2 ATS as a double-digit dog over that span. It’s not easy to cover large numbers against the Midshipmen, who run a triple-option offense that eats up clock and limits possessions overall.

The Navy defense looks like it will be much more competitive this season under new defensive coordinator Brian Newberry, who has used a multitude of looks and pressure through two games.

But then again, how much can we really take out of games against Holy Cross and East Carolina?

This also isn’t an easy situational spot for Navy. Even though the Midshipmen didn’t play last week, they are in the midst of six-week exams, so the preparation might be lacking. They traveled to Memphis on Wednesday.

The Memphis run defense has looked pretty solid so far this year, allowing only 3.1 yards per rush (top 40 nationally). That’s obviously important against Navy.

Unless I can get Memphis under 10, I’ll be sitting this one out. It’s a good game to measure how much Navy actually has improved after a dreadful 2018 season.

Collin Wilson’s Navy at Memphis Analysis, ATS Pick

We spoke a bit about the surface-level stats for this game on Monday’s episode of The Action Network Podcast. Navy is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) and 3-1 straight up in its last four games against Memphis and Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry has had quite a bit of success in his two starts against the Tigers.

There is a revenge angle for Memphis in this game and the Tigers were a bit unlucky in last year’s 22-21 loss, losing three fumbles and blowing a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter.

Memphis players and coaches cited the heavy rains that day as a reason for the collapse as the Tigers couldn’t run their high-flying offense. There is no precipitation in the forecast for Memphis Thursday night.

Both Memphis and Navy rank inside the top-25 overall in Havoc and the Memphis defense has specialized in creating chaos behind the line of scrimmage.

The Tigers also rank 11th in opportunity rate and 16th in stuff rate, which means they have succeeded in stopping the run and getting into the backfield. Take note that new defensive coordinator, Adam Fuller, is a former coordinator and defensive line coach from Marshall. He vaulted the Thundering Herd from 126th in line yards in 2015 to inside the top 20 in 2017 and 2018.

Navy’s defense is just 39th in sack rate, which should allow Brady White the chance to throw down field. The Midshipmen boast good havoc numbers, but have tallied just nine passes defensed this season.

Both defensive fronts should have some success, so the under is certainly worth a look, but our projections make this total 61.

The point spread, however, comes at a discount — most likely because of how well Navy has played over the first month of the season. Our projected spread for this game is Memphis -14 and SP+ has it as Memphis -13.2.

I’m happy to back Memphis at -11, but it looks like a good idea to wait out the market as the early returns suggest there will be plenty of Navy action to perhaps put this spread even lower.

ATS Pick: Memphis -11 or better