All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad blue-blood programs. That remains true in Week 9.
Which teams are going to make the College Football Playoff? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Denton, Texas, and Laramie, Wyoming.
While our fields may be blue, gray, or teal, the money won on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As Action Network’s resident Group of 5 guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often overlooked teams and matchups while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
Here are my two favorite NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, November 1.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | Memphis -13.5 |
  | 3 p.m. | New Mexico +4 |
  | 7 p.m. | San Diego State -10.5 |
Memphis vs Rice Pick
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -575 |
| Rice Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +425 |
This is an undeniable letdown spot for the Memphis Tigers.
Coming off a massive upset win over South Florida, Memphis climbed into the top 25 and into the driver’s seat for the college football playoff. With a game against Tulane next week, this is a sleepy sandwich spot against 4-4 Rice.
But the situation is already baked into this number. Perhaps a little too much.
The Tigers just positioned themselves as the frontrunners to reach the College Football Playoff in the Group of 5. Are they really going to suffer a second let-down after faltering to UAB just two weeks ago? I don’t expect them to make the same mistake again.
Scott Abell took over this Rice program and completely revamped the offense to his hybrid spread-option attack. The Owls rank third nationally in rushing attempts per game, only trailing Army and Air Force.
But here’s the thing. Memphis ranks 32nd nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed. They have a pair of elite linebackers in Sam Brumfield and Drue Watts in the middle of this defense, plus two safeties who are terrific in run defense.
Rice’s offense came out of the gate strong before teams got much tape on it, but three of its last four opponents have held the Owls under 350 total yards of offense. Quarterback Chase Jenkins has been great as a runner but not much of a threat in the passing game. He has just five touchdown passes on the season and has yet to throw for over 200 yards.
Memphis has been terrific on offense this season, ranking 30th nationally in Success Rate with a balanced attack led by veteran Brendon Lewis. Lewis uses his arm and legs very well, totaling 17 touchdowns on the year.
Rice has good defense numbers, especially in terms of success rate, but it has allowed a ton of big plays. The Owls rank 130th nationally in preventing Explosives. Rice has allowed at least six yards per play in each of its last four games. UConn put up 34 points and 450 yards of offense last week, and UTSA lit the Owls up for 61 points the week before.
From a pure numbers perspective, our Action Network Power Ratings would make this game Memphis -19 on a neutral. Even with home field advantage and a great situational spot, anything two touchdowns or less is a discount on the Tigers.
Pick: Memphis -14 or Better
New Mexico vs UNLV Pick
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
We always need to be careful using the F word in today’s climate… but UNLV is a Fraud.
The Rebels have beaten FCS Idaho State (barely), winless Sam Houston, the corpse of UCLA, Miami Ohio (barely, after its quarterback got hurt), Wyoming, and barely beat an Air Force team with the worst defense in the country.
Last week, against Boise State — the second team UNLV has played with a winning record — the Rebels got blown out by more than three touchdowns.
In its seven games this year, UNLV has been outgained in five of them. They have gotten extremely lucky in the turnover department, sitting third nationally in turnover margin. The Rebels have a good offense led by quarterback Anthony Colandrea and running back Jai’Den Thomas, but the defense is atrocious.
UNLV ranks 115th nationally in Success Rate allowed. The Rebels allow way too many big plays and are one of the worst tackling teams in the nation. They have basically been relying exclusively on forcing turnovers to get stops.
Now, the concern for this game is that New Mexico turns the ball over as much as anybody.
Jack Layne has eight interceptions on the season, but they all came in just three games. He has kept a clean sheet in the last two games; he hasn’t even had a turnover-worthy play. In fact, Layne hasn’t had a turnover-worthy play in six of his eight games this season. He really just had two horrible games. He has also gotten a bit unlucky with more interceptions than turnover-worthy plays this year.
New Mexico has a three-headed rushing attack led by Scottre Humphrey, along with Damon Bankston and DJ McKinney. The Lobos also have a terrific tight end in Dorian Thomas.
When New Mexico runs the ball well, it wins. In five wins this season, the Lobos averaged 216 rushing yards. In the three losses, they managed just 58.3 yards per game on the ground.
Jackson Eck’s team should have no problem running the ball against this Rebels defense that has allowed 204.7 yards per game on the ground, 129th in the country.
UNLV has gotten extremely lucky to start 6-1, and it’s going to catch up to them eventually. UNLV ranks fourth in the country in fumble recovery percentage, and New Mexico ranks 129th.
Eventually, the oblong ball is going to bounce the other way for both of these teams.
Pick: New Mexico +4 or Better
Wyoming vs San Diego State Pick
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| San Diego St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -425 |
Why is nobody talking about San Diego State?
The Aztecs are 6-1 and have a legitimate chance to reach the College Football Playoffs as the Group of 5 representative. They already have a dominant win against an ACC team, crushing Cal 34-0.
Not only have the Aztecs rattled off five straight wins, but they are absolutely throttling teams. San Diego State has won its six games by an average margin of 26.2 points per game.
The recipe for San Diego State is very simple, but very effective. The Aztecs run the ball down the team's throat with Lucky Sutton, who is averaging 5.3 yards per play on the ground and 94.6 yards per game. Byron Cardwell and Christian Washington mix in as well and are both effective.
When opposing defenses key in on the run, quarterback Jayden Denegal hits an explosive pass over the top. The Aztecs rank 11th nationally in Pass Explosiveness.
San Diego State plays tremendous defense and looks like some of the old Aztecs teams we had gotten used to seeing. They rank in the top 20 in Success Rate allowed and are one of the best in the country at defending the pass. San Diego State ranks 15th nationally in passes broken up. Cornerback Chris Johnson is one of the best in the nation, with the nation's best PFF Coverage grade.
Johnson, along with Bryce Phillips on the other side, and Dalesean Staley and Dwayne McDougle at safety, should have no problem with Kaden Anderson and this Wyoming passing attack. The Cowboys are not explosive at all and do not have the weapons to beat this secondary.
San Diego State has the second-best coverage grade in the entire country and will blanket the Cowboys' offense.
Wyoming struggled to score 21 points against a putrid Air Force defense. Now, the Cowboys will face an Aztecs defense that ranks first in the Mountain West in both run defense and pass defense. San Diego State is allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and has surrendered just two rushing touchdowns all season. Only Ohio State has allowed fewer.
Wyoming has yet to beat a team with a winning record. The Cowboys' three FBS wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-17. San Diego State has a dominant defense and an explosive offense that Wyoming will have no answers for.
The Aztecs are blowing the doors off everybody they play, and Saturday should be no different.
Pick: San Diego State -12 or Better
