All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad, blue-blood programs.
Who’s going to make the college football? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Athens, Ohio, and Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
While our fields may be blue, grey, or teal, the money that can be won on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As The Action Network’s resident Group of 5 Guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often-overlooked teams and matchups, while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
With a sneaky fun slate, here are five games I have circled for Week 3. Let's dive into my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, Sept. 13.
UConn vs Delaware Pick
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -105 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -320 |
| Delaware Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -115 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
The Huskies lost a heartbreaker to Syracuse, 27-20, in overtime last week as 7-point ‘dogs.
UConn led 17-6 on the road in the fourth quarter before Syracuse ripped off two touchdowns to take the lead. But the Huskies went down the field in 47 seconds to tie the game before losing in overtime.
While some might see Saturday as a letdown spot for the Huskies, I see it as an opportunity to prove they’re as good as last year’s 9-4 squad.
UConn’s defense held the Orange to just 47 rushing yards on 27 carries. Quarterback Joe Fagnano threw for over 250 yards, and Cam Edwards and Mel Brown both rushed for over 70.
Delaware’s first season at the FBS level began with a win over Delaware State, but the team lost quarterback Zach Marker early in that game with what is likely to be a season-ending injury. Nick Minicucci has looked solid in relief, but the Blue Hens have struggled to run the ball effectively.
It is a positive sign that Delaware was able to keep pace with Colorado in terms of total yardage, but the Hens lost by 24 points because they made too many mistakes and couldn’t execute the little things. The Blue Hens had two turnovers, a missed field goal, and went just 2-for-10 on third downs.
UConn has a significant advantage to pull away in this game.
UConn ranked fourth nationally in third-down defense last season. The Huskies also ranked fourth in red zone conversion rate on offense. The Huskies are well coached and make the most of their chances on offense, while getting off the field when they need to on defense.
The game will be won on third down, and UConn has the advantage there.
Pick: UConn -8 (-110, Fanatics)
South Florida vs Miami Pick
| S. Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Miami (FL) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
As the No. 1 Group of 5 defender, this pains me to write, but this game could get ugly.
Let’s be clear, South Florida is an excellent team, and nothing the Bulls have done this season has been a fluke.
But this is an extremely difficult ask to get up for a third monster game in a row.
South Florida has knocked off Boise State and upset Florida in the swamp, but it hasn’t exactly been the most reliable recipe. The Bulls rank 114th nationally in Success Rate, but 11 explosive plays have helped them overcome the inability to move the ball consistently.
Meanwhile, Miami has looked nearly perfect through two games.
The Hurricanes rank sixth nationally in Success Rate behind a rejuvenated Carson Beck, and the defense has looked elite, especially up front.
I am not sure how long the Bulls will be able to block Miami’s front seven. South Florida does not want Byrum Brown under pressure all day and taking too many hits.
South Florida has already done their job. With wins over Boise State and Florida, all the Bulls need to do is win the American, and they are in the College Football Playoffs. There is no reason to risk getting Brown hurt before conference play, especially against the team he got hurt against last year.
To Alex Golesh’s credit, he is one of those coaches who plays to win every game, not just keep it close. He is not going to slow things down to shorten the game; instead, he is going to play fast and take calculated risks. That means if the Bulls don’t have success, they will be giving the ball back to Miami quickly and often.
South Florida has had about as good a start to the season as any team in the country, but the Bulls run out of gas on Saturday.
Pick: Miami -17.5 (-110, bet365)
FAU vs FIU Pick
| FL Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 58 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 58 -110o / -110u | -135 |
I think the wrong team is favored.
Last season was a disaster for Florida Atlantic, but it cleaned house, firing Tom Herman and moving on from quarterback Cam Fancher.
The Owls hired offensive wizard Zach Kittley from Texas Tech, and the former Western Kentucky offensive coordinator also brought in former Western Kentucky quarterback Caden Veltkamp. Kittley recruited Veltkamp to the Hilltoppers, where he threw for over 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns last season.
Receiver Easton Messer followed his quarterback to Boca Raton and already has 19 catches in two games.
We know the offense will be good, but the defense has also looked improved through two games. The Toppers rank 33rd nationally in Success Rate allowed. Maryland managed just 380 total yards in the season opener.
Florida International was also a disaster last season and brought in a new coach to try to turn things around.
Willie Simmons has served as the head coach at Prairie View A&M and Florida A&M. He succeeded in his first order of business, which was getting quarterback Keyone Jenkins to stay. The problem with Jenkins is that he seems to be a player we keep waiting to take a step forward. He shows flashes of clear talent and upside, but can’t put it together consistently. He has no touchdowns with one interception this season.
Defensively, the Panthers returned just two starters and really lack talent on that side of the ball. They lost their top eight leading tacklers from last season. FIU has struggled to get any pressure on the quarterback for the last few years, and Veltkamp should be able to stand in the pocket and pick apart the opposing defense.
Florida International might have raised a few eyebrows last week as it appeared to hang with Penn State for a half, but that was more a result of Penn State playing with its food.
Florida Atlantic has won this matchup seven straight times and has absolutely dominated the Panthers of late. The Owls are just able to get much more talent.
Expect Veltkamp and this Kittley offense to continue improving and getting into rhythm, which will enable them to pick apart the FIU defense.
I like the Owls to win this game outright more often than not.
Pick: FAU +2.5 (-110, bet365)
App State vs Southern Miss Pick
| App State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
Southern Miss was the darling pick of the Sun Belt this offseason after bringing in Charles Huff and most of his Marshall squad.
However, through two games, I am not sure any team in the conference has improved more than App State.
South Carolina offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains was not the most exciting hire, but the Mountaineers are 2-0 and looked dominant in their season-opening win over Charlotte.
Obviously, it hasn’t played the best competition, but App State currently sits 45th nationally in Success Rate and 18th in Success Rate allowed.
This has looked more like the Mountaineers team we have been used to seeing.
We all expected Huff to turn around Southern Miss quickly, but it might take a few more games than expected. The Golden Eagles were not competitive against Mississippi State and then barely outgained Jackson State last week. Southern Miss ranks outside of the top 100 nationally in Success Rate on both sides of the ball.
The Golden Eagles' defense has been dreadful against the run, and that is the strength of the Mountaineers. Even without lead back Kanye Roberts, Rashod Dubinion is averaging 152.5 yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry. AJ Swann is a veteran quarterback who spent time at Vanderbilt and LSU and has taken instant control of this offense.
Southern Miss is on the rise, no doubt, and will continue to improve. Still, the gap between these two teams is larger than the market suggests.
Pick: App State -3.5 (-110, bet365)
Duke vs Tulane Pick
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
There will be a lot of talk about Tulane seeking revenge on Darian Mensah for leaving for Duke, but when it comes to the play on the field, the Blue Devils have the better quarterback.
Mensah has completed 73.5% of his passes through two games for the Blue Devils, throwing five touchdowns. He ranks second nationally in passing, working with a deep and talented receiver room.
Tulane tried to replace Mensah with like four different quarterbacks throughout the offseason before eventually landing on BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff right before the season started. Retzlaff is a fine player, but a bit overrated. He had 18 Turnover Worthy Plays at BYU, despite completing just 12 Big Time Throws. He already has two TWPs this season and is completing just 55% of his passes.
We know Manny Diaz is going to have a great defense, and I expect them to make things very difficult for Retzlaff. The Blue Devils ranked in the top 10 nationally in creating Havoc last season and are strong against the run. Expect them to put pressure on Retzlaff and force him to use his arm more.
The Green Wave are coming off a close game against South Alabama, where they were outgained and won on a failed two-point conversion late for the Jaguars.
Meanwhile, Duke was blown out by a top-15 Illinois team, but it outgained the Illini by 15 total yards — unfortunately, the Blue Devils turned the ball over five times, losing four fumbles. That obviously needs to be cleaned up, but if the ball bounces differently, that could have been a different game.
Manny Diaz has been a pretty good coach throughout his career. His teams are 25-19-1 against the spread, including an 8-2-1 ATS mark at Duke last season. Diaz teams are 12-4-1 ATS as an underdog and 12-6-1 ATS on the road. As an underdog of less than 10, Diaz is 11-1 against the spread with nine outright wins.
Pick: Duke ML (+100, bet365)
