College Football Betting Preview: New Mexico vs Nevada Prediction, Picks, Odds (Saturday, Oct. 28)
Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (New Mexico)
New Mexico vs Nevada Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
The Nevada Wolf Pack (1-6) host the New Mexico Lobos (3-4) in a late-night Mountain West battle on Saturday.
New Mexico has not been a world-beater this season, but Nevada has arguably been the worst team in the conference.
This isn't likely a must-watch game, but that doesn't matter. We're looking for betting value, and we're going to find it.
Let's dive into our New Mexico vs Nevada Prediction, Picks, Odds.
The New Mexico Lobos have had one of the unluckiest starts to their season across college football. This is an excellent team offensively, but the defense has held them back from taking a step forward in the Mountain West.
The Lobos are coming from a home beatdown of Hawaii, whom they beat 42-21. The offense was firing on all cylinders, with quarterback Dylan Hopkins completing 80% of his passes and throwing three touchdowns.
The backfield has been exceptional for New Mexico recently as well. The two-headed monster of Andrew Henry and Jacory Croskey-Merritt combined for 158 yards and three touchdowns against Hawaii on just 23 carries.
The Lobos rank 46th in Rush Success and 19th in Pass Success, which are extraordinary marks.
Last week's matchup was arguably New Mexico's best defensive showing of the season, despite giving up 21 points. Hawaii has a high-powered offense, and the Lobos were able to mitigate it. The Lobos will be looking to continue this defensive effort against a team they should have no problem beating outright.
With all the positive things to say about New Mexico, the same courtesy cannot be extended to Nevada. The Wolf Pack have struggled on both ends of the gridiron, ranking worse than 100th in the country in just about every metric we evaluate.
The bright spot is that Nevada is coming off a road victory over San Diego State in one of the season's strangest FBS games. Nevada won 6-0. They blanked the Aztecs, but only mustered up two field goals worth of offense.
While coming off a win is encouraging, the fashion they did it in was … not.
This Nevada team has the potential to get smoked by the Lobos, even with New Mexico's season-long defensive woes.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico and Nevada match up statistically:
New Mexico Offense vs. Nevada Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 112 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 131 | |
| Havoc | 119 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 47 | |
| Quality Drives | 46 | 125 |
Nevada Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 126 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 126 | 125 | |
| Havoc | 133 | 114 | |
| Finishing Drives | 133 | 97 | |
| Quality Drives | 121 | 129 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 130 | 123 |
| PFF Coverage | 129 | 124 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 108 | 106 |
| Middle 8 | 54 | 74 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.4 (123) | 27.4 (77) |
| Rush Rate | 55.4% (52) | 53.2% (64) |
New Mexico vs Nevada
Betting Pick & Prediction
New Mexico is the better team here, plain and simple. The intriguing aspect of this, though, is that the Lobos' defense hasn't been there outside of their last game.
Nevada's defense put together its best effort all season against SDSU last week.
The spread seems to be an overreaction to Nevada's most recent performance, which has somehow covered up that it was the team's first win.
Backing the Lobos in this one as an underdog is a no-brainer.
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