New Mexico State vs UTEP Prediction, Pick: Betting Value on Short Favorite

New Mexico State vs UTEP Prediction, Pick: Betting Value on Short Favorite article feature image

Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: New Mexico State quarterback Diego Pavia.

New Mexico State vs UTEP Odds

Wednesday, Oct. 18
9 p.m. ET
New Mexico State Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Week 8 brings us a Wednesday night matchup in El Paso, Texas, at Sun Bowl Stadium when the UTEP Miners welcome the New Mexico State Aggies.

New Mexico State enters this week at 4-3 overall after winning two straight weeks following a road loss at Hawaii.

UTEP enters this week with a lot of momentum after picking up its first conference win of the year last week with a victory over FIU a team New Mexico State defeated earlier in the year as well.

The Aggies sit at 2-1 in conference play, while the Miners come in at 1-2. A win here for UTEP could help it catch NMSU in the conference standings as it continues to build on the momentum from last week.

Can UTEP return home and get its first home conference win this week? Let's dive into the New Mexico State vs. UTEP odds and make a pick and prediction in this Wednesday NCAAF betting preview for Oct. 18.

New PrizePicks users can use our PrizePicks promo code and claim a deposit bonus worth up to $100.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

New Mexico State Aggies

Head coach Jerry Kill brings this Aggie team into El Paso looking to remain competitive in Conference USA as they chase the Liberty Flames.

The Aggies joined the conference this offseason and are looking to make some waves in their first year. However, this one figures to be another tough conference road test for the Aggies after they lost to Liberty on the road earlier in the year.

New Mexico State's offense is led by dual-threat junior quarterback Diego Pavia, who does it all for this team at a very efficient rate. He has 14 touchdowns through the air with another two on the ground to go along with more than 2,000 yards of total offense.

Pavia is special and will need to be good again in this one to help his team roll.

The Aggies rank 16th in the country in Offensive Success Rate and are especially explosive through the air at eighth nationally in passing explosiveness. They should be able to put points up in a hurry if they go down early and need to pass.

This team also loves to run the ball, ranking 33rd in rush rate. It tends to capitalize on those runs as well, sitting fourth in Rushing Success Rate and third in Offensive Lone Yards. Star Thomas leads the running back room with 4.7 yards per carry on 60 rushes.

Second-year defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling has taken the reins of this New Mexico State defense that struggles to get stops defensively. The Aggies currently sit at 106th in Defensive Success Rate, and it has a better run defense than pass defense.

The bright spots for this defense are its ability to cause Havoc (37th) and prevent explosive plays (47th). The Aggie defense will need to come up big in this one and force a few turnovers to make up for its inability to get off the field.

Phone With the Action App Open
The must-have app for college football bettors
The best NCAAF betting scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Live win probabilities for your bets

UTEP Miners

The Miners are finally in the conference win column after a nice road victory over FIU in Miami. Now, they return home and look to pick up win No. 2 over conference newcomer New Mexico State.

Head coach Dana Dimel will look to keep this team motivated and moving in the right direction after a four-game losing streak earlier in the season.

UTEP used its fourth quarterback of the season last week with Cade McConnell getting his first career start. He looked pretty solid and threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns without any interceptions. He was later knocked out of the game, so quarterback controversy arrives again in El Paso.

First-stringer Gavin Hardison looks to start again at quarterback if he's available for this one, but he's thrown five touchdowns and seven interceptions this season, which is worrying against a team that has the ability to make big plays on the defensive side of the ball.

The Miners will need good quarterback play because they simply aren’t good enough on offense. They rank 98th in the country in Offensive Success Rate while averaging 17.7 points per game. They will need to score more than that in order to keep pace with the talented Aggies offense.

The glaring weakness for this UTEP team defensively is its struggles against the run. This does not bode well against an Aggies team that loves to run the ball — and runs the ball extremely well. The Miners rank 109th defensively against the run and cannot stop big plays on the ground, ranking 101st in defensive run explosiveness.

The pass defense is much better, but New Mexico State runs the ball on over 57% of its plays.

For the Miners to stay in this game, it will need to sell out to stop the run early and force New Mexico State into an early deficit so it has to throw against this pass defense that ranks 34th nationally.

New Mexico State vs UTEP

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico State and UTEP match up statistically:

New Mexico State Offense vs. UTEP Defense
Rush Success4110
Line Yards393
Pass Success5279
Finishing Drives53112
Quality Drives5078
UTEP Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
Rush Success7989
Line Yards8641
Pass Success9795
Finishing Drives9080
Quality Drives7775
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling12890
PFF Coverage110100
Special Teams SP+40115
Middle 85689
Seconds per Play30.7 (128)29.1 (103)
Rush Rate57.2% (33)60.2% (32)

New Mexico State vs UTEP

Betting Pick & Prediction

This game should be better than most expect given that UTEP is 1-1 against New Mexico State in their last two meetings.

The Aggies' run game and quarterback play with Pavia are just too good, and they should be able to dominate the time of possession in this one.

I don’t think the Aggies blow out the Miners with their steady run game, but they should win this one by at least a touchdown. Give me New Mexico State up to -4.

Pick: New Mexico State -3 (Play to -4)

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.