Notre Dame vs. Iowa State Odds, Betting Pick: 2019 Camping World Bowl Spread, Prediction

Notre Dame vs. Iowa State Odds, Pick

• Odds: Notre Dame -3.5
• Over/Under: 54.5
• Time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• Location: Orlando, Fla.

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Collin Wilson: Can Either Offense Generate Consistent Points?

The Broyles Award is given to the best college football assistant coach in the nation. Nominees are considered up-and-coming prospects on the national coaching scene. Recent winners include Lincoln Riley, Tom Herman, Gus Malzahn and Kirby Smart.

Considering the prestige around the award, it was a surprise to see 2018 Broyles Award finalist Chip Long depart from Notre Dame after serving as offensive coordinator since 2017. The Irish finished the season ranked 20th in SP+ offense. Head coach Brian Kelly announced that quarterback coach Tom Rees will take over play-calling duties for the Camping World Bowl.

It's also fair to question how motivated Notre Dame will be for this game. The Irish had their sights on a New Year's Six game, but didn't get the nod for an at-large bid. Brian Kelly has struggled in bowls, going 2-9 against the spread in 11 games.

Matt Campbell and Iowa State came up a few points shy of getting into the Big 12 Championship. Overall, it was an unlucky season for the Cyclones, who lost three of their games (Oklahoma, Iowa and Baylor) by a combined four points.

Quarterback Brock Purdy will have his hands full against a Notre Dame defense that is excellent against the pass. Purdy and the Cyclones rank 15th in passing success rate but the Irish defense is right there with them, ranking 19th in the same category.

Although our projected total for this game is 59, there are some indicators that point the under. Notre Dame's offense will need to adjust to a new play-caller, while its defense should give Purdy and the Cyclones a real tough test.

Pick: Under 54.5

Steve Petrella: Iowa State Better Than It Showed

I agree with Collin that Iowa State was a little unlucky this season.

The Cyclones rank 101st with a 0.9 second order win total, meaning it was more like an 8-4 team than a 7-5 team. All five of their losses came by 10 points or fewer.

This line is about right (our power ratings make it ND -4). But the variance that bowl season brings makes it worth leaving the points on the table and taking the moneyline.

This isn't a great matchup for Iowa State — Notre Dame has struggled against teams that dominated the trenches, which isn't really ISU's game — but Brian Kelly doesn't have a great track record in bowl games as Collin mentioned.

I'll take Iowa State to pull off the upset as a College Football Playoff warmup.

Pick: Iowa State ML +145