Ohio State vs Purdue Odds & Picks: The Team Total to Bet
Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ohio State’s Tommy Eichenberg.
Ohio State vs Purdue Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +750 |
Ohio State looks to stay undefeated when it travels to West Lafayette to take on Purdue on Saturday.
The Buckeyes got a bit of a scare from Maryland in the first half last week before eventually pulling away to win, 37-17.
Ohio State is in a massive look-ahead spot with Penn State waiting on deck for a likely top-10 showdown next week. So, it's important the Buckeyes take care of business and don't overlook Purdue.
It's been a tough season for Purdue after its 20-14 loss to Iowa last Saturday dropped it to 2-4 on the season. Ryan Walters has a big rebuild on his hands, and so far, the Boilermakers haven't handled the tough schedule very well.
However, Purdue has won three of its last four meetings with Ohio State in West Lafayette, so could another upset be brewing with Buckeyes in a look-ahead spot?
Let's dive into the Ohio State vs. Purdue odds and find a pick in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 14.
Kyle McCord really hasn't been effective as a passer this season. Through five games, he owns a PFF passing grade of just 72.5 and has committed six turnover-worthy plays.
McCord has some of the best wide receivers at his disposal, but he often isn't making life easy on them. His adjusted completion percentage sits at just 72.1%, and his on-target percentage comes in at 70.1%.
The other problem with Ohio State's offense is it's putting too much pressure on McCord because of a lack of a run game.
TreVeyon Henderson has gotten going and averages 6.7 yards per carry, but he missed the Buckeyes' last game against Maryland, and it's clear how important his loss was. Without Henderson, OSU gained just 62 yards on 33 carries against the Terps.
The good news for Ohio State is that Henderson will be back this week. However, the Buckeyes are still relying too much on explosive rushing plays because they rank outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate.
The Ohio State defense, meanwhile, has been outstanding. It basically single-handedly won the Notre Dame game because of its performance in its own territory. The Irish did gain over 350 yards but scored just 14 points on their five drives inside Ohio State territory.
For the season, Ohio State ranks 15th in Finishing Drives Allowed and fourth in Quality Drives Allowed.
The Buckeyes are also a top-20 defense in both EPA/Rush and EPA/Pass Allowed while also sitting top-10 in explosiveness allowed.
Things have not been going well offensively for Purdue with quarterback Hudson Card in Graham Harrell's offense.
Last year, Purdue was incredibly pass-heavy under Jeff Brohm, but Harrell has called a pretty even 50-50 split in terms of pass versus the run this season.
However, even though Purdue has more balance, it hasn't helped its offense one bit. To be fair, the Boilermakers have played a more difficult schedule than most, but they're currently 88th in EPA/Play and 114th in Finishing Drives.
The problem really has been that they can't run the ball. Starting running back Devin Mockobee returned from last year's squad, but he's averaging only 4.2 yards per carry as Purdue sits outside the top 80 in both EPA/Rush and rushing explosiveness.
In the passing game, Card really hasn't been that effective either. He's averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt and has a PFF passing grade 0f just 67.8 with nine big-time throws and 11 turnover-worthy plays.
The biggest problem for Card is the offensive line isn't doing a great job of protecting him. He's been pressured 83 times this season, per Sports Info Solutions, which is the third-highest mark in college football. When he's under pressure, he averages 6.3 yards per attempt and has five turnover-worthy plays with a 52.3 PFF passing grade.
Purdue is also dealing with some injuries offensively, as starting tight end Max Klare is out for the season and running back Tyrone Tracy is going to miss this game due to injury.
Walters is known for his defensive prowess, but Purdue has been average at best on that side of the ball. The Boilermakers are allowing 5.3 yards per play and rank 68th in EPA/Play — and that's after playing one of the worst offenses in college football.
While they've been OK versus both the run and the pass, teams are scoring at will once they enter Boilermaker territory. Purdue ranks 97th in Finishing Drives Allowed and 89th in Quality Drives Allowed.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Purdue match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs. Purdue Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 102 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 25 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 69 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 72 | |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 97 | |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 89 |
Purdue Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 61 | 14 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 60 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 104 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 116 | 15 | |
| Quality Drives | 40 | 4 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 11 | 99 |
| PFF Coverage | 5 | 92 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 24 | 115 |
| Middle 8 | 7 | 97 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.8 (66) | 25.4 (39) |
| Rush Rate | 48.1% (95) | 51.1% (84) |
Ohio State vs Purdue
Betting Pick & Prediction
The forecast early in the week was calling for 15 MPH winds, but that has since died down to around 10 MPH.
This is a weird spot for Ohio State going on the road for a noon kick with Penn State waiting on deck.
My guess is the Buckeyes are going to try and focus on getting their ground game going after a poor showing against Maryland — especially with Henderson healthy.
Outside of a late touchdown, Purdue's offense did next to nothing against Iowa last weekend, and Card doesn't even look like an average quarterback in Harrell's offense. Combine that with the fact that Ohio State's defense is playing at an elite level and not allowing teams to score when they get inside their territory, and it's a bad combination for the Boilermakers.
While all the focus is on Ohio State's offensive struggles, its defense hasn't allowed more than 17 points to any of its five opponents this year. So, I like the value on Purdue's team total under at 14.5 points.
Pick: Purdue Team Total Under 14.5
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