College Football Odds, Pick for Ole Miss vs Georgia: Can Rebels Keep Up?

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When the calendar turns to November, college football consumers start to clamor for chaos.

The 2007 season saw an abundance of head-scratching events, from a two-loss national champion in LSU to Appalachian State winning in Michigan's Big House.

If there's going to be chaos in the current College Football Playoff rankings, it starts with Ole Miss and Georgia. With a single loss to Alabama, the Rebels are on their last legs from a national title standpoint.

The Crimson Tide own the West Division, solidifying their position with a win over LSU. Not only does Alabama need to lose its final two conference games, but the Rebels must go into the lion's den of Athens and defeat the two-time defending champ.

Georgia survived its stiffest test of the season in Sanford Stadium last week, beating Missouri by nine. The Tigers stuffed nearly half of the Bulldogs' rushing attempts, generating an overall yards per play equal to that of Georgia.

For Georgia, November is about surviving and advancing, as head coach Kirby Smart's team has one of the toughest paths to an undefeated season.

Let's dive into the Ole Miss vs. Georgia odds and make a pick in our college football betting preview for Saturday, Nov. 11.

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The Ole Miss offense has started to hit a stride amid a five-game winning streak, scoring at least 27 points against SEC teams each week during that stretch.

Head coach Lane Kiffin looks to establish the rush with quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Quinshon Judkins, who's now fully recovered from an early-season injury.

Dart has attempted 33 designed runs this year, utilizing inside zone and power concepts. Judkins has become a missed tackle machine, creating 46 on the season with half coming in the past three games.

The season-long numbers sagged through the first half of the season as Judkins recovered from his injury, but Dart has picked up the slack in recording the best passing season of his career.

The USC transfer has cut his turnover-worthy play rate nearly in half while obliterating quarters coverage at a 57% Success Rate with plenty of explosives.

The bigger questions are on the defensive side of the ball.

Ole Miss stuffed just six of Texas A&M's 35 rushing attempts in Week 10. The Aggies are 92nd in Offensive Line Yards, bringing in plenty of concerns surrounding the Rebels' front seven. Ole Miss ranks 77th in Defensive Line Yards with the biggest issues coming against opponent run concepts that utilize outside zone.

The numbers continue to drop the closer opponents get to scoring position. Ole Miss ranks 66th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 92nd in opponent red-zone touchdown efficiency.

The Bulldogs are marching toward a third consecutive national title, but questions remain about the strength of the team over previous versions.

Offensively, the loss of tight end Brock Bowers gave offensive coordinator Mike Bobo the green light to throw downfield at a higher rate.

Quarterback Carson Beck is quietly moving up the Heisman odds board, compiling a 9:2 touchdown touchdown-to-interception ratio over the past four games. The junior sits eighth in total passing yards with a turnover-worthy play rate similar to Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and North Carolina's Drake Maye.

Georgia has one of the most potent offenses in the nation, run or pass. But the defense enters Week 11 with questions.

The Bulldogs rank 45th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, allowing mobile quarterbacks to gash the front seven. Similar to the Ole Miss defense, offenses that run outside zone have had success against Georgia's run defense.

Another worrying aspect is the lack of stops when opponents are in scoring position. The Bulldogs have fallen to 70th in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing an average of 3.7 points on 36 opponent drives that crossed the 40-yard line.

Georgia's defense has the fourth-highest rate of success on first downs, but that rank falls to 56th against the rush on second down.

The numbers against explosives have fallen compared to past Bulldog teams, barely slipping into the top 50 in limiting expected points against the run and in passing downs.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Georgia match up statistically:

Ole Miss Offense vs Georgia Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	53	45
Line Yards	93	33
Pass Success	23	9
Havoc	70	38
Finishing Drives	10	70
Quality Drives	19	8

Georgia Offense vs Ole Miss Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	25	61
Line Yards	55	77
Pass Success	5	42
Havoc	23	35
Finishing Drives	11	66
Quality Drives	3	40

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	32	11
PFF Coverage	41	5
Special Teams SP+	71	62
Middle 8	68	21
Seconds per Play	23.1 (10)	28.8 (99)
Rush Rate	57.2% (45)	49.0% (85)

Ole Miss can attack the Georgia defense both on the ground and through the air. Missouri was successful in generating 5.5 yards per play in rushing attempts against the Bulldogs, so Judkins and Dart are expected to attack in a similar fashion.

Specifically, Judkins thrives when running around a blocking tight end on the right side. Georgia has a low 44% Success Rate on outside zone rush attempts, an area Ole Miss will look to expose with Judkins.

Another concern for Georgia is its ability to stop Dart in known passing downs. The Bulldogs have one of the highest coverage grades, per PFF, but an average Success Rate when running quarters coverage.

Dart's domination of quarters coverage is expected to benefit Ole Miss in getting into scoring position, where the Georgia defense has struggled to keep points off the board.

If Dart can replicate the RPO quarterback keeper that Missouri and Auburn showed, Ole Miss could gash the Bulldogs on the ground with explosives.

The Rebels can also be lethal in the passing game with a bevy of explosive targets in Tre Harris, Jordan Watkins and Dayton Wade, but taking advantage of Georgia's rush defense will be the most productive route.

The question for the Georgia offense is its ability to deal with Rebels defensive coordinator Pete Golding's blitz. Ole Miss sends blitz on 33% of defensive snaps, resulting in a high 57% Success Rate in creating pressure.

The good news for Georgia is its rank of third in pressure allowed. Opponents have crowded Beck in 35 passing attempts this season, lowering his adjusted completion percentage by 16% but drawing only a single turnover-worthy play.

There's a reason to believe Beck will have a clean pocket most of the evening, as Texas A&M allowed only a single sack and just three tackles for loss against the Rebels defense last week.

Action Network expects Ole Miss to keep this closer than the market, projecting Georgia at -8.5 with a total into the 60s.

Each offense should create plenty of scoring opportunities. Georgia will give Beck enough protection from a sinking Ole Miss pass rush, while the Rebels will use Dart and Judkins to take advantage of a substandard rush defense against outside zone.

Pick: Ole Miss +10.5 · Over 58 or Better