Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Pick, Prediction & Odds | Egg Bowl Betting Guide
Getty Images. Design: Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured (left to right): Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Quinshon Judkins. Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers and running back Jo’Quavious Marks.
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Odds
| Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10 -115 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | +310 |
| Ole Miss Rebels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10 -105 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | -400 |
The most underrated rivalry in college football comes from the state of Mississippi every Thanksgiving night.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State is a historic in-state battle that dates back to 1901, with the Rebels leading the all-time series at 64-46-6. The series is dead even over the past 20 years, providing one-possession victories in three of the past four instances.
Often known for its physicality and fights, the Battle for the Golden Egg took a memorable turn in 2019.
The 2019 version of the Egg Bowl has been dubbed "The Piss, the Miss and the Double Dismiss" by fans. Ole Miss' Elijah Moore caught a touchdown with four seconds remaining, only to be flagged for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for imitating a dog urinating.
The ensuing extra point was missed, and Mississippi State escaped by a single point. Both programs fired their head coach, leading to the Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin eras.
There are rivalries, then there's the Egg Bowl.
Let's dive into the Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds and find a prediction for Thursday's college football Egg Bowl.
The box score from a dominant win over Southern Miss would indicate a breakout for a Mississippi State offense that returned two critical pieces.
Quarterback Will Rogers played in his first action since a Week 6 injury against Western Michigan, showing plenty of rust against the Golden Eagles. Rogers completed just 12-of-27 passes with a massive six drops recorded by targets.
Running back Jo'Quavious Marks made his first appearance since a Week 8 injury against Arkansas. The fourth-year running back also had issues on the ground, averaging 2.8 yards per carry and providing a single catch out of the backfield.
The defense saw marginal improvement in the wake of fired head coach Zach Arnett. Mississippi State ranks 117th in Defensive Finishing Drives, failing to limit opposing offensive drives.
Southern Miss averaged just 1.5 points on drives beyond the Bulldogs' 40-yard line, as MSU limited the Golden Eagles to a lowly 24% Success Rate in passing downs.
Star USM running back Frank Gore Jr. was held to just three yards per carry as the Bulldogs generated five tackles for loss and three sacks.
Mississippi State's defense will need to replicate the red-zone success from Southern Miss into the Egg Bowl to have any shot of pickup up an upset.
The Rebels' quest to shake up the SEC ended with a loss to Georgia at Sanford Stadium in Week 11.
The Rebels bounced back during Tin Horn Weekend with a 35-3 smashing of Louisiana-Monroe, highlighted by a healthy Jaxson Dart under center. The third-year quarterback left the Georgia game for the medical tent, only to return in a three-touchdown performance against the Warhawks.
Your weekly crazy Dayton Wade highlight 💨@JaxsonDart ➡️ @__vierrpic.twitter.com/Y2Gwi4gyaq
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) November 18, 2023
Despite injuries on the offensive line, Ole Miss' rushing attack is still as potent with running back Quinshon Judkins leading the way. The Rebels rely on a heavy amount of inside zone and power run concepts, generating a Quality Drives rank in the top 20.
Ole Miss has been exceptional in scoring position this season, averaging 4.7 points on 68 drives that have crossed the opponent's 40-yard line.
The biggest improvement for Ole Miss has come with the hiring of defensive coordinator Pete Golding. Golding's nickel package often sends just two or three down defenders to protect against the explosive play.
Ole Miss ranks top-25 in pass explosives allowed through a heavy use of Cover 3 and quarters.
Defensive interior Jared Ivey has produced Havoc despite the light defensive front, generating 21 pressures this season with eight sacks.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Mississippi State match up statistically:
Ole Miss Offense vs Mississippi State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 58 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 27 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 70 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 117 | |
| Quality Drives | 19 | 86 |
Mississippi State Offense vs Ole Miss Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 116 | 98 | |
| Line Yards | 94 | 101 | |
| Pass Success | 123 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 35 | |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 66 | |
| Quality Drives | 97 | 50 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 34 | 18 |
| PFF Coverage | 63 | 52 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 47 | 35 |
| Middle 8 | 88 | 128 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.1 (8) | 27.9 (86) |
| Rush Rate | 57.3% (44) | 54.7% (61) |
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss
Pick, Prediction
To carry over the defensive success against Southern Miss into the Egg Bowl, the first key for Mississippi State is to stop the inside zone and power run game of Judkins and Dart.
The Bulldogs have an above-average rush defense that ranks 38th in Line Yards and at the national average in Success Rate against Ole Miss' most-used run concepts.
Mississippi State rarely allows rush explosives against inside zone, so any chunk plays for Ole Miss must come from Dart through the air.
The good news for the Rebels is Dart's numbers against teams that play quarters coverage. The Ole Miss quarterback comes in above the national average in Success Rate and explosives when facing quarters this season.
The Mississippi State offense will be asked to keep up with Ole Miss — a tough task considering the numbers from the Southern Miss game.
The Bulldogs have been unable to establish a ground game, where Ole Miss has had consistent issues defending.
Mississippi State runs twice as much outside zone than any other run concept, but it's the route tree for Rogers that may keep the Bulldogs in this game. MSU runs a heavy amount of crossing routes and hitches — routes that have given the Rebels issues all season.
The Action Network projection favors Ole Miss at -12 with a total of 54, just off the market numbers.
There's reason to believe this game may be a battle of methodical drives with limited explosives. Mississippi State has shown success on defense in limiting Ole Miss' favorite run concepts, making the passing game the biggest advantage for the Rebels.
When the Bulldogs have the ball, expect Rogers to improve after a number of drops and inaccurate throws last week. Rogers is expected to maintain a low average depth of target by hitting shallow crossers, a route that Ole Miss' light box has struggled to defend.
With 11 being one of the key numbers on the spread, any Ole Miss number at -10.5 or better is worth an investment, while -11.5 or better favors Mississippi State.
The better bet is the under on the total with the key of 55 in mind.
The Bulldogs defense will show up against Ole Miss' run concepts while limiting Dart's explosive passes just enough for the offense to slowly grind the clock with Rogers' short passing game.
Pick: Under 55 or Better · Ole Miss -10.5 or Better
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