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Oregon vs Oregon State Odds & Picks: Don’t Expect Much Offense

Oregon vs Oregon State Odds & Picks: Don’t Expect Much Offense article feature image
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Ali Gradischer/Getty Images. Pictured: Oregon running back Bucky Irving (0).

Oregon vs Oregon State Odds

Saturday, Nov. 26
3:30 p.m. ET
ABC
Oregon Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1
-115
57
-110o / -110u
-120
Oregon State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1
-105
57
-110o / -110u
+100
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Two of the best bets in the entire country meet Saturday in Oregon vs. Oregon State.

Although the Ducks sport the green in this in-state rivalry, the Beavers have been a printing press, stuffing bettors’ pockets with loot all season.

At 9-2 against the spread, only TCU matches Oregon State for the best clip in America.

Not to be outdone, Oregon has covered eight of its 11 this year (72.7%) and is running hot amid a 6-1 streak both straight up and against the number. The Ducks need a win this week or a Washington loss to reach the Pac-12 title game.

Is there value on Saturday’s spread? Or is the total the better look?


Oregon is Pure Chaos

Oregon has had a flair for the dramatics, and we’re running on about three weeks straight now.

The Ducks lost to Washington — their first game since the whupping to Georgia — in a pure #Pac12AfterDark matchup in Week 11.

Then, quarterback Bo Nix’s status was in flux all the way up until kick against Utah last Saturday, and all he did was gut out a 20-17 win over the Utes as a short home underdog.

Nix’s outlook against the Beavers hasn’t been solidified, and head coach Dan Lanning didn’t even want to discuss injuries leading into the week.

Although the Ducks have waddled like a well-oiled machine — their 7.1 yards per play is tied for second nationally — they’re dealing with ailments along the line, while receiver Chase Cota has been out of action the last month.

Oregon likes to play fast and has gone 6-5 to the over this season. The defense, meanwhile, is bottom-10 nationally in passing yards allowed per game and now faces a sneaky-good Oregon State offense.


Beavers Are ‘Dam’ Good

Oregon State’s not going to see a lot of standard Pac-12 totals in the high-60s or 70s. It’s more death by a thousand cuts.

The Beavers aren’t sexy but rank just outside the top 40 nationally in points per game (31.9) while running at a super-slow pace.

Jonathan Smith confirmed this week Ben Gulbranson will keep his job under center from here on out. The freshman has led the Beavers to a 5-1 record both straight up and against the spread over his last six starts while outscoring opponents by close to 17 points per game.

Oregon State’s defense ranks top-30 nationally in rushing yards and total yards allowed per game, points per game and takeaways.

Despite matching up with a plethora of high-powered offenses in conference play, the Beavers have held six of their eight Pac-12 opponents under their team total in 2022.

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Oregon vs Oregon State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Oregon State match up statistically:

Oregon Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 1 86
Line Yards 3 81
Pass Success 4 24
Pass Blocking** 4 110
Havoc 5 30
Finishing Drives 11 24
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oregon State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 17 56
Line Yards 16 43
Pass Success 24 115
Pass Blocking** 51 95
Havoc 32 91
Finishing Drives 32 92
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 39 79
PFF Coverage 52 23
SP+ Special Teams 43 120
Seconds per Play 26.0 (54) 29.9 (126)
Rush Rate 54.6% (62) 61.0% (18)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Oregon vs Oregon State Betting Pick

You’re not really getting a discount on Oregon State at 3 or a rogue 3.5, and I’m not exactly sure laying it with a banged-up Ducks offense away from Autzen is necessarily stealing.

I guess I’m not particularly surprised the over took money — the offenses have the edge in every single category above — which is now on the cusp of reaching a key number of 59.

I actually thought 55 was a fairer number considering how Oregon State totals have been priced this season.

In a matchup featuring Oregon’s Lanning and Oregon State’s Smith on opposite sidelines, I’d still go under the total at 58.5 — but I’m bumping that up to a full unit if it hits 59.

Pick: Under 58.5 (Play to 58)

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