The No. 7 Oregon Ducks (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) host the No. 15 USC Trojans (8-2, 6-1 Big Ten) in a Big Ten college football battle on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon has had quite the 2-week stretch recently. The Ducks survived a trip to Kinnick Stadium 2 weeks ago, beating Iowa, 18-16, on a field goal in the last minute. Then, last week, they dominated Minnesota at home, 42-13.
USC, meanwhile, has won 3 in a row after losing to Notre Dame, 34-24, last month. Last week, the Trojans mounted a 14-point comeback to beat Iowa in a rainy game in Los Angeles.
This game is sure to have some postseason implications. The Trojans can't afford another loss, while the Ducks are looking for some help in their effort to make the Big Ten Championship.
So, where does the value lie in this one? Let's dive into our Oregon vs. USC picks and college football predictions for Week 13 on Saturday, Nov. 22.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Oregon -10
Our staff likes Oregon at -10, and I think I have to ride the Ducks with them for one simple reason: Oregon will run the ball down the Trojans' throats.
This game will be an extreme mismatch in the trenches when Oregon has the ball, so look for any of the Ducks' trio of running backs to run wild (or all three).
Oregon leads the nation in Rushing Success Rate and Rushing PPA Per Play. USC? It ranks 128th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 88th in Rushing PPA Per Play allowed.
This difference is even starker when comparing PFF grades. Oregon boasts the No. 1-ranked PFF rushing offense, while USC’s defense ranks 122nd.
Now, I know USC has had a borderline elite offense. Jayden Maiava is PFF’s eighth-highest graded quarterback, and USC has the 12th-best offense in the country, per PFF.
But this Oregon defense has been elite for most of the season. Ranking ninth in PFF defensive grade, the Ducks can stop the Trojans.
In particular, look for the third-ranked Oregon secondary to try to take advantage of a Maiava turnover.
Look for the Ducks to box the Trojans in on defense and run the ball down their throat all night.
Over/Under Pick
Over 59.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 59.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 59.5
The Action Network staff leans toward the under 59.5 in the Oregon vs. USC matchup this Saturday, and with good reason.
Late November in Eugene means colder temperatures and a typically loud, hostile crowd that can often disrupt timing and force visiting team penalties to muddle up the game flow.
Also, Oregon’s underrated defense is the X-factor in why this game will stay under 60 points.
The Ducks allow only 3.9 yards per play, ranking second nationally behind Ohio State, and give up only 4.9 yards per pass, the best mark in the country.
While USC QB Jayden Maiava has had a strong season, supported by talented receivers Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane, the Trojans have been night and day in terms of home and road splits.
USC averages 45 points per game at home but just 27 as a visitor.
Meanwhile, Oregon’s offense is not at full strength, especially at wide receiver, and will likely rely heavily on its ground game to control the clock and pace.
Oregon just really hasn’t been the “shootout” team some may have expected. The Ducks have combined with their opponent to score fewer than 59 points in seven of their last eight games.
As always, 59 is a key number in betting college football totals. Getting the hook and playing the under is a smart play for bettors looking to capitalize on Oregon’s defense and the challenging environment facing USC.
Player Prop Pick
Noah Whittington 60 + Jordan Davison 50+ Rush Yards Parlay (+110)
By Alex Hinton
Oregon and USC combine to average 80 points per game, with this week’s total hovering around 60 points.
Many will look to the quarterback battle for the fireworks, particularly with Dante Moore establishing himself as one of the top prospects for the NFL Draft. However, Oregon’s biggest advantage this week likely comes on the ground.
USC ranks 63rd in the FBS, giving 145.8 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry, while also coming in at 128th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
The Trojans have surrendered at least 130 rushing yards in five of their past six games.
The Ducks average 241.8 passing yards per game but nearly match that with 233.6 rushing yards per game, eighth-most in the FBS.
Noah Whittington leads the team with 623 rushing yards to go along with five touchdowns on 8.2 yards per carry.
But freshman Jordan Davison has emerged as the preferred on the goal line with 12 rushing touchdowns. However, he has 461 rushing yards on seven yards per carry himself.
Davison has run for 50 yards in each of his last five games, while Whittington has 60 yards in 6-of-8 eight games this season.
They wouldn't be the first duo to find success against the Trojans, who allowed a pair of running backs to go over 50 yards against Illinois, Michigan and Notre Dame.
In its last top-20 test, Oregon ran for 261 yards in inclement weather. I like Whittington and Davison to handle the bulk of that load and run for 50-plus apiece here.
Oregon vs. USC Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | -375 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | +300 |
- Oregon vs. USC Spread: Oregon -10, USC -10
- Oregon vs. USC Over/Under: 59.5
- Oregon vs. USC Moneyline: Oregon -375, USC +300
