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The Sacramento State Hornets take on the Ball State Cardinals in Muncie, IN. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Ball State is favored by -14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Sacramento State vs. Ball State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24, 2026.
Sacramento State vs Ball State Prediction
- Sacramento State vs. Ball State Picks: Ball State -10.5 | Ball State Team Total Over 33.5
My Ball State vs. Sacramento State best bet is on the Cardinals to cover the spread and for them to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
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Sacramento State vs Ball State Odds
| Sacramento State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -115 | 51.5 -104o / -118u | +490 |
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -105 | 51.5 -104o / -118u | -710 |
- Sacramento State vs Ball State point spread: Ball State -14 (-112), Sacramento State +14 (-110)
- Sacramento State vs Ball State over/under: 51.5 (-102o / -118u)
- Sacramento State vs Ball State moneyline: Sacramento State +450, Ball State -600
Sacramento State vs Ball State College Football Preview
Sacramento State Hornets Betting Preview
Sacramento State has been a complete disaster in its inaugural season at the FBS level. As talked about on BBOC in the MAC preseason podcast, the Hornets were not ready to compete at this level with a middling FCS talent composite and poor projected trench play.
This has played out, as the Hornets cannot run the football well and the defense has been prone to giving up big plays.
Sacramento State is getting outgained on average by a full two yards per play, and that is a historically bad differential. Poor coaching, poor execution and a lack of overall roster continuity has led to five straight losses, all by three scores or more.
We have Sacramento State a full 10 points lower than any FBS team in our Action Network power ratings, and that adjustment might not fully capture what we have seen from this group.
The Hornets may not win another game the rest of the season, and I expect the decay in performance to continue.
The offense has stayed balanced, but the Hornets can't run the football against FBS-level competition.
The Hornets are averaging 92 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry on the ground this season outside of a lopsided win against Mississippi Valley State, a game that needs to be thrown out when considering the metrics.
Jamar Curtis has been battling injury and while Isaiah Ene and Daniel Swinney have emerged, the production has not been enough to see Sacramento State move the ball consistently.
The quarterback play has been substandard, as Jackson Sharman continues to log snaps, and he's struggled throwing the ball. Last week at home against Ohio, Sharman completed just 11-of-21 passes for 69 yards, and he has just two touchdown passes combined over the last five outings.
The defense has struggled as well, as the Hornets rank toward the bottom in overall team tackling, coverage grades and pass rush. The front is giving up five yards per carry on the ground, and Sacramento State has allowed its last five opponents to score in excess of 31 points.
The defense has very few redeeming qualities and has only forced three turnovers this entire season, with just one coming during the five-game losing streak.
Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview
Despite a 2-5 record, Ball State has been fighting hard. The Cardinals are coming off their best offensive showing of the year in a thrilling overtime win on the road against Bowling Green last week.
Every game the rest of the way is winnable, and Ball State has to be excited for this home game, just its third of the year.
The offense has been fun to watch and looks like a unit that is finally coming together, and the quarterback play has been a big reason for the success.
Keldric Luster has thrown the ball really well over the last couple of weeks and last week, his 8.1 yards per pass attempt was his highest output of the season.
This receiver group doesn’t have a shining star, but eight players have caught at least 10 passes this season, and the versatility of the group makes the passing attack dangerous.
The ground attack has been more effective as well, as Ball State is coming off its best rushing effort of the entire season (240 yards against Bowling Green).
Ball State has posted its best three offensive outings of the season against Toledo, Northwestern and Bowling Green, and now takes on a defense that's whittling each and every week.
The Ball State defense hasn't been a strong unit, but the competition must also be considered when assessing the defensive metrics. Ohio State, Liberty, Toledo and Northwestern have been on the schedule, all of which have been equipped with strong offenses.
The assignment this week will be to contain explosive plays, force Sacramento State into third and long and get off the field.
This will likely be Ball State's easiest assignment of the entire season.
Sacramento State vs Ball State Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Ball State listed as a 9.5-point favorite with a total set at 51.5. Ball State has taken money all week, and I'm part of the move.
A play has been logged in the Action App at Ball State -10.5, and when we talked about Ball State on the BBOC Sixth Gear podcast, the line had moved out to -13.5, which was still playable.
I do also like Ball State to exceed its team total, which currently sits at 33.5.
Ball State is coming off a thrilling victory over Bowling Green, its first win in a month. The offense has posted exceptional performances against tougher teams, and Ball State has played really well in its only two home games of the season to date.
The offense is going to move the ball on Sacramento State, which has allowed 218 or more rushing yards in three straight games. The secondary hasn't been able to hold up due to an ineffective Sacramento State pass rush that has just two sacks over the last five weeks.
The quarterback matchup favors Ball State significantly. Luster looks very comfortable in the offense and showed flashes of brilliance as a runner last week against Bowling Green, adding another element for Sacramento State to defend while making the task tougher on this already depleted defense.
It's hard to want to lay this many points and assume Ball State will score in excess of 33 points, but Sacramento State is a below-average FCS team with a roster that hasn't held up. Plus, the performance continues to diminish.
I'm going to fade Sacramento State the rest of the season, as the defense simply doesn't have the talent or the bodies to compete.
Ball State should roll in this game and that likely means a three-touchdown victory and 35-42 points being scored.
Picks: Ball State -10.5 | Ball State Team Total Over 33.5
