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The San Diego State Aztecs take on the Colorado State Rams in Fort Collins, CO. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on The CW.
San Diego State is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 63.5 points.
Here’s my San Diego State vs. Colorado State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24, 2026.
San Diego State vs Colorado State Prediction
- San Diego State vs Colorado State Pick: San Diego State 1H Team Total Over 16.5 Points (-115, Play to 17)
My Colorado State vs. San Diego State best bet is on the Aztecs to score 17+ points during the first-half. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
San Diego State vs Colorado State Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 63.5 -108o / -112u | -115 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 63.5 -108o / -112u | -105 |
- San Diego State vs Colorado State point spread: San Diego State -1.5 (-105), Colorado State +1.5 (-115)
- San Diego State vs Colorado State over/under: 63.5 (-108o / -112u)
- San Diego State vs Colorado State moneyline: San Diego State -115, Colorado State -105
San Diego State vs Colorado State College Football Preview
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: They'll Get Lucky
Turns out, having your best playmaker available really helps the offense. Lucky Sutton has been in and out of the lineup due to an ankle sprain, and last week was the first time he was really back to strength since Week 2.
Sutton ran loose, picking up 110 yards (6.1 per carry), though he did fumble once.
Javion Kinnard played a complementary role, taking his 14 carries for 77 yards.
San Diego State ran on nearly two-thirds of its plays against Fresno State (15th-most removing option teams), going for over 200 on the ground, as a team.
With Colorado State (the nation's worst defense) and Washington State (77th in Rushing Success Rate), it's safe to assume the run-heavy approach will continue for Sean Lewis.
The line needs to settle in a bit — eight different linemen have 100+ snaps on the season despite a below-average use of six-plus linemen sets — but this is an offense on a positive trajectory, so long as it keeps its duo of Sutton and Kinnard intact.
The defense is prone to give up yards and points against college football's more talented offenses. Though individual players are fine, the unit is exhausted from being on the field the entire game.
No defense is on the field more this season than the Aztecs (opponents possess the ball for 59.2% of plays this season).
Coordinator Demetrius Sumler plays the whole two-deep to keep his guys fresh — 19 defenders have 150+ snaps already and 15 have logged 200 — and the talent just isn’t quite there.
San Diego State ranks 106th in points per drive allowed and 117th in Success Rate, but it's 41st in opponent-adjusted EPA Per Play allowed. That’s fatigue, and not just in a game-to-game sense, but week-by-week attrition as players wear down due to prolonged time on the field.
Colorado State Rams Betting Preview: Wrong Kind of Record
Colorado State is making history with its defense. Last week, Colorado State went into its game allowing 7.9 yards per play, the worst mark since 2018 (UConn). In a 66-point onslaught, that number ballooned to 8.3 yards allowed per play, creeping closer to 2018 UConn's 8.7.
It's clear the move to unceremoniously dismiss DC Tyson Summers wasn't popular, as Colorado State's defense looked apathetic to the tune of 45 points allowed by halftime.
Now, head coach Jim Mora is dealing with lackluster effort from his players (16! missed tackles in Week 7) and a lack of talent, especially in the secondary.
Any team willing to throw it on Colorado State is likely to find success, as the Rams' 10.7 yards allowed per dropback is the worst in the FBS by almost a yard.
On a good note, QB Hauss Hejny is set to return to action after missing the last three games due to injury. Top WR RJ Vick missed the Texas State loss.
In Hejny's absence, K'Saan Farrar played pretty well and, despite an offensive line that hasn't gotten much push up front, Colorado State QBs are the second-least sacked in the country (1.04% of dropbacks, only behind Notre Dame) — pretty good for an Air Raid team.
Despite running the ball far less frequently than FBS average (126th), it's been an effective part of the Colorado State offense, sitting second in EPA Per Rush behind only Army.
But until Colorado State fields anything slightly resembling a defense, it's going to take a Herculean effort from Hejny and the offense to get any wins left on the schedule.
San Diego State vs Colorado State Pick, Betting Analysis
The market has adjusted for the news that Hejny could return this weekend. Colorado State was bet out to as far as +3.5, a number that rebounded back down to +1.5 (and even some sporadic -0.5).
The total initially opened at 59.5 points but has been bet up to 63.5 points — Colorado State has not held an opponent under 56 points since September and under 40 points since Week 2.
San Diego State's offense is improving, but the lay of the land doesn't really reflect it yet. Since Colorado State +3 or better is a clear buy (and even +2) and nobody's betting under this game, the market has no choice but to decrease San Diego State's team total.
("Decrease" being entirely relative as 31.5 is bullish for a team whose season-high against FBS competition came last week with 26.)
Barring an absurdly high point total or a too-high point spread, I'm going to continue betting Colorado State's opponent team totals. Until this team shows any semblance of life, effort or care, it's worth taking over the opposing team total.
Over its last four games, Colorado State has surrendered an average of 36.5 points per game to opponents in the first half. That ballooned to 45 points allowed last week.
We're playing a game of chicken to see which breaks first: a team's ability to score on Colorado State's defense or the bettor's will to bet over opposing team totals.
Pick: San Diego State 1H Team Total Over 16.5 Points (Play to 17)
San Diego State vs Colorado State Betting Trends
