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The San Diego State Aztecs take on the Toledo Rockets in Toledo, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Toledo is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -148. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Here’s my San Diego State vs. Toledo prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026.
San Diego State vs Toledo Prediction
- San Diego State vs. Toledo Pick: Toledo 1H -0.5
My Toledo vs. San Diego State best bet is on the Rockets to cover the first-half spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
San Diego State vs Toledo Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -114u | +124 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -114u | -148 |
- San Diego State vs Toledo point spread: Toledo -3 (-110), San Diego State +3 (-110)
- San Diego State vs Toledo over/under: 52.5 (-105o / -114u)
- San Diego State vs Toledo moneyline: San Diego State +124, Toledo -148
San Diego State vs Toledo College Football Preview
San Diego State Aztecs
You could chalk up a 1-2 record to a tough slate of opponents that includes UCLA and James Madison to start the year, but San Diego State has come up short of expectations in a number of ways.
The Aztecs failed to cover either number against those two opponents and combined for a grand total of zero first-half points.
The "Flash Fast" attack followed head coach Sean Lewis to San Diego, but the offensive efficiency hasn’t. Despite running a new play every 24 seconds, San Diego State ranks 130th in Success Rate and third-worst in EPA per dropback.
Jayden Denegal has been atrocious — he’s completing less than 54% of his throws with four interception — and he’s gotten no relief from a ground game, which ranks 118th in rushing success rate despite some push up front.
As has been the case in recent seasons, San Diego State’s defense has been terrific. It held UCLA scoreless in the first half (a 0-0 halftime tie) and held James Madison to just 55% of available yards.
Demetrius Sumler has been on staff for 10 seasons, and it’s clear he understands the defensive system put in place by Rob Aurich (now at Nebraska).
Despite a less-than-stellar defensive front in the run game, San Diego State’s third- and fourth-down defense has been outstanding this season.
But until the offense manages to shift into gear — not just in the first half, but at all — the Aztecs are going to be a struggle and dead nut under team.
Toledo Rockets
Something to keep an eye on: Toledo has struggled to put butts in seats so far this season. That wasn’t an issue under Jason Candle (Toledo ranked No. 1 in the MAC in fill capacity), but with Central Connecticut and Temple coming to town, Glass Bowl Stadium hasn’t been full.
It’s become noticeable and a topic of concern on Twitter this past weekend.
But last weekend’s 18,000 fans were treated to a dandy. Toledo dropped 21 fourth-quarter points to rally and ultimately beat Temple 49-48 in overtime.
John Alan Richter threw for 429 yards and four scores, while Adjatay Dabbs continued to look like one of the top receivers in the Group of Six this year. The passing attack is potent for the Rockets.
The run game, on the other hand, is not.
Toledo’s offensive line has generated no push in the run game, and even against Central Connecticut State, it hasn’t managed to generate an 80-yard rusher.
Offensive coordinator Cris Reisert is confident in what he has – a veteran quarterback, at least one NFL-caliber receiver and a supporting cast of really good pass catchers. Reisert dialed up a pass on over 62% of snaps in Toledo’s first three games, sixth-most in the country.
On defense, we’re not really sure what Toledo’s about. It’s shown flashes of brilliance — linebacker Isaac Zay is one of the most involved defenders in the country — but giving up 261 yards on the ground to Temple is concerning.
San Diego State vs Toledo Pick, Betting Analysis
There’s nothing I love more than a weird body clock game. This kicks off at noon Eastern at Glass Bowl Stadium (a venue struggling with attendance this season), which is the equivalent of 9:00 a.m. internal for San Diego State.
Road fans might be spotty considering Toledo isn’t much of a destination compared to San Diego, and travel there's logistically difficult (fans would have to fly in to Detroit and drive 90 minutes). Expect a largely empty, sleepy environment for the visitors playing early in the morning.
Some examples of Pacific Time teams falling flat for AM kicks include UNLV falling behind 24-10 to Miami (OH) last year before rallying with 17 fourth-quarter points, USC falling to Illinois as a touchdown favorite, and the 2022 Detroit Bowl, where Western Michigan beat Nevada (+6.5) by 30 points.
It doesn’t happen often outside conference play, and it’s a relatively new phenomenon, but these games get weird.
Toledo opened as a +2.5 underdog, and that line has since been corrected to favor it by a field goal. The total was also bet up, but 52 points looks to be the resistance point.
In sleepy, weird body-clock environments, the defense is usually the first to go. This season, San Diego State has gotten off to a number of slow starts (down 19-0 at half to James Madison last week, 0 points in the first half against UCLA).
At home and in a more comfortable morning environment, I lean Toledo in the first half.
Pick: Toledo 1H -0.5
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